Zach Fruit

P Chesapeake Baysox

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 212 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #423

ETA2029FG ETA2026MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	A+Aberdeen Iron…	25	21	107	3.03	3.38	25.1%	12.2%	—	K 19.3% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.29
2025	25	MIX2 levels	14	13	52	6.10	4.40	21.6%	12.9%	—	K 15.4% · BB 15.6% · FIP 5.03
2027PROJ	27	MLBBAL	10	10	60	5.87	5.87	15.5%	16.8%	-0.6
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBBAL	4	4	22	5.76	5.80	16.2%	16.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBBAL	5	5	31	5.75	5.82	16.5%	15.9%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control30Command30

CompsNoah Song (age 26) · Connor Jones (age 27) · Jake Bockenstedt (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 128

ERA5.87

FIP5.87

K%15.5%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%-1.3%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	21	107	450	113	55	7	84%	4.3	19.3%	14.1%	5.3%	1.9%	3.03	4.29	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	21	107	450	113	55	7	84%	4.3	19.3%	14.1%	5.3%	1.9%	3.03	4.29	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	25	21	107	450	113	55	7	84%	4.3	25.1%	12.2%	12.9%	1.6%	3.03	3.38	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	52	241	52	31	6	93%	3.7	15.4%	15.6%	-0.3%	2.3%	6.10	5.03	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	52	241	52	31	6	93%	3.7	15.4%	15.6%	-0.3%	2.3%	6.10	5.03	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	52	241	52	31	6	93%	3.7	21.6%	12.9%	8.7%	2.5%	6.10	4.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BAL	10	10	60	253	39	43	7	100%	6.0	15.5%	16.8%	-1.3%	2.9%	5.87	5.87	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	10	10	58	244	39	39	7	100%	5.8	16.2%	16.2%	-0.0%	3.0%	5.76	5.80	-0.6
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	9	9	55	233	38	37	7	100%	6.1	16.5%	15.9%	0.6%	3.1%	5.75	5.82	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	22	93	15	15	3	100%	5.5	16.2%	16.2%	-0.0%	3.0%	5.76	5.80	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	5	5	31	131	22	21	4	100%	6.2	16.5%	15.9%	0.6%	3.1%	5.75	5.82	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	52	221	36	35	7	100%	5.8	16.4%	16.0%	0.3%	3.1%	5.75	5.43	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	138	134	27	100%	6.0	16.4%	16.0%	0.3%	3.1%	5.75	5.43	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		39	34	159	691	124	101	14	87%	4.1	17.9%	14.6%	3.3%	2.0%	4.03	4.55	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	871	156	127	18	87%	4.1	17.9%	14.6%	3.3%	2.0%	4.03	4.55	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Fruit (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.87	15.5%	16.8%	2.9%	—	5.81	16.3%	0.3%	113	-0.06	—	—	—
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	73
Connor Jones R 2022 · 5.50 FIP	27	SP	5.50	15.1%	15.7%	3.1%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	402	73
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	71
Matt Palmer R 2008 · 5.81 FIP	29	SP	5.81	4.5%	17.9%	1.5%	.314	4.33	12.8%	2.4%	171	-1.48	2.98	183	71
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	71
Alex Blackford R 2017 · 5.59 FIP	26	SP	5.59	14.9%	12.5%	4.0%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	229	69
Clay Condrey R 2003 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP-	5.41	14.9%	10.1%	4.2%	.303	4.07	13.1%	7.4%	29	-1.34	3.18	250	69
Noah Skirrow R 2024 · 4.77 FIP	26	SP-	4.77	11.7%	11.7%	2.1%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	371	68
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	68
Jonathon Crawford R 2017 · 6.93 FIP	25	SP	6.93	7.8%	20.7%	3.4%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	125	67
Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	17.2%	12.4%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	187	67
Austin Bergner R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	27	SP	4.84	22.2%	12.5%	3.7%	.325	4.42	18.7%	7.3%	107	-0.42	4.06	464	67
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	67
Asher Wojciechowski R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	27	SP	5.40	13.5%	11.0%	3.7%	.315	4.71	22.2%	14.4%	379	-0.69	3.15	678	67
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	66
Kevin Hart R 2009 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP-	4.93	13.9%	11.0%	2.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	109	66
Samuel Deduno R 2012 · 5.22 FIP	29	SP	5.22	16.4%	15.3%	2.9%	.260	3.94	16.6%	7.2%	230	-1.28	2.99	327	66
Mark Appel R 2017 · 5.14 FIP	26	SP	5.14	13.8%	14.6%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	363	66
Drake Fellows R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	26	SP-	4.97	16.1%	12.7%	2.9%	.293	4.85	14.2%	6.3%	207	-0.12	4.28	282	66
Justin Miller R 2004 · 5.41 FIP	26	SP-	5.41	12.5%	10.4%	3.7%	.316	2.63	28.6%	21.7%	62	-2.78	2.63	373	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	16.1%	16.3%	1.15	5.79
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*