Carlos A. Francisco

Carlos A. Francisco P Reading Fightin Phils

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%19.8%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%7.2%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	14	0	22	95	19	3	0	0%	1.6	13.6%	3.9%	9.7%	0.0%	3.68	2.45	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	14	0	22	95	19	3	0	0%	1.6	20.0%	3.2%	16.8%	0.0%	3.68	1.78	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	28	127	35	15	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.3%	7.3%	4.2%	5.08	5.38	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	28	127	35	15	4	0%	1.1	27.6%	11.8%	15.7%	3.1%	5.08	4.05	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	41	0	47	207	55	28	2	0%	1.2	20.5%	15.6%	4.9%	1.4%	5.13	4.10	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	41	0	47	207	55	28	2	0%	1.2	26.6%	13.5%	13.0%	1.0%	5.13	3.10	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	255	73	28	3	0%	1.2	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	1.5%	4.03	3.56	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	60	255	73	28	3	0%	1.2	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	1.5%	4.03	3.56	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	60	255	73	28	3	0%	1.2	28.6%	11.0%	17.6%	1.2%	4.03	2.72	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	41	1	54	242	52	31	7	2%	1.3	17.4%	14.1%	3.3%	3.1%	5.17	5.09	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	41	1	54	242	52	31	7	2%	1.3	17.4%	14.1%	3.3%	3.1%	5.17	5.09	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	41	1	54	242	52	31	7	2%	1.3	21.5%	12.8%	8.7%	2.9%	5.17	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	PHI	3	0	3	13	3	2	0	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.6%	7.2%	3.0%	5.03	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	PHI	36	0	38	159	32	20	5	0%	1.0	20.0%	12.4%	7.6%	3.1%	5.01	5.04	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	PHI	13	0	14	59	12	7	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.4%	7.6%	3.1%	5.01	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	60	12	7	2	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.4%	7.6%	3.1%	5.01	4.66	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	169	99	28	0%	1.1	20.0%	12.4%	7.6%	3.1%	5.01	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		171	1	212	926	182	120	19	1%	1.2	19.7%	12.9%	6.8%	2.1%	4.67	4.21	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	1	200	874	172	113	18	1%	1.2	19.7%	12.9%	6.8%	2.1%	4.67	4.21	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos A. Francisco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	19.8%	12.6%	3.0%	—	5.04	20.0%	7.6%	38	+0.01	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	90
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	89
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	88
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	87
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	87
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	87
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	86
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	86
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	86
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	85
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	85
Michael Blazek R 2016 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	17.9%	11.9%	3.3%	.336	4.43	17.5%	8.0%	124	-0.49	2.99	221	85
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	84
J.J. Hoover R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	27	SU	4.22	19.7%	11.4%	2.5%	.211	4.46	24.6%	14.3%	98	+0.24	4.22	258	84
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	83
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	83
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	38	19.9%	12.5%	1.16	5.02
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82