A.J. Wilson — OGILVIE

A.J. Wilson P Clearwater Threshers

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 225 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 21 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 131

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%22.9%

BB%15.6%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	5	0	7	32	11	7	0	0%	1.4	34.4%	21.9%	12.5%	0.0%	3.86	2.97	—
2024	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	5	0	7	32	11	7	0	0%	1.4	34.4%	21.9%	12.5%	0.0%	3.86	2.97	—
2024	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	5	0	7	32	11	7	0	0%	1.4	34.4%	21.9%	12.5%	0.0%	3.86	2.96	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	39	169	49	26	4	0%	1.5	22.2%	19.7%	2.5%	3.2%	5.95	5.47	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	39	169	49	26	4	0%	1.5	22.2%	19.7%	2.5%	3.2%	5.95	5.47	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	39	169	49	26	4	0%	1.5	29.0%	15.4%	13.6%	2.4%	5.95	3.91	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PHI	20	0	21	89	20	14	3	0%	1.1	22.9%	15.6%	7.4%	3.0%	5.17	5.17	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PHI	33	0	35	147	34	22	5	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.0%	7.9%	3.1%	5.11	5.12	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	PHI	12	0	13	55	13	8	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.0%	7.9%	3.1%	5.11	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	12	8	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.0%	7.9%	3.1%	5.11	4.74	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	126	32	0%	1.1	23.0%	15.0%	7.9%	3.1%	5.11	4.74	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		32	0	46	201	49	40	5	0%	1.4	24.1%	20.0%	4.1%	2.7%	5.63	5.07	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	0	200	868	209	174	23	0%	1.4	24.1%	20.0%	4.1%	2.7%	5.63	5.07	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
A.J. Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	22.9%	15.6%	3.0%	—	5.12	23.0%	7.9%	35	-0.05	—	—	—
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	90
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	87
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	85
Jake Rice L 2023 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	23.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.305	4.87	19.0%	4.3%	103	+0.46	3.16	199	83
C.J. Widger L 2024 · 4.21 FIP	25	SU	4.21	26.0%	16.0%	2.3%	.258	5.75	18.1%	-0.7%	57	+1.54	3.83	105	83
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	82
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	82
Kevin Chapman L 2014 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.297	3.30	22.3%	12.4%	137	-1.33	3.01	194	82
Andy Fisher L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.5%	15.4%	1.8%	.333	4.25	17.2%	6.3%	52	+0.05	3.13	167	81
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	81
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	81
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.36	19.3%	8.8%	53	+0.09	3.45	165	81
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	80
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	80
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	80
Adam McCreery L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	26	SU	4.29	20.7%	14.5%	2.0%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	207	79
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	79
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	79
Hunter Schryver L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	21.0%	14.1%	3.2%	.294	4.00	17.7%	4.9%	37	-0.88	3.58	206	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	23.0%	15.2%	1.18	5.13
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35