Andrew Jenkins
1B Erie SeaWolves| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+/ADET | 173 | .253/.314/.380 | 3 | 0 | 36 | — | .184/.227/.264 |
| 2025 | 24 | A+DET | 398 | .262/.346/.413 | 10 | 0 | 65 | — | .209/.275/.336 |
| 2026 | 25 | AADET | 440 | .290/.344/.455 | 11 | 5 | 85 | — | .254/.296/.384 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBDET | 3 | .232/.280/.353 | 0 | 0 | 80 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBDET | 45 | .231/.280/.352 | 1 | 0 | 80 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 51 | 44 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 333 | 295 | 629 | 68 | 312 | 24 | 10 | 297 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 40 | 32 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 400 | 375 | 775 | 125 | 308 | 15 | 12 | 360 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 123 | 113 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 292 | 341 | 336 | 678 | 44 | 416 | 28 | 7 | 310 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 234 | 204 | 62 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 62 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 304 | 385 | 382 | 768 | 78 | 424 | 26 | 10 | 346 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK | FCL Tigers | — | 17 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 643 | 706 | 786 | 1.492 | 143 | 818 | 18 | 18 | 647 | 194 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 55 | 49 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 364 | 408 | 772 | 122 | 382 | 25 | 11 | 349 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 118 | 109 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 291 | 367 | 658 | 128 | 316 | 27 | 5 | 293 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 398 | 351 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 93 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 346 | 413 | 759 | 151 | 328 | 23 | 8 | 340 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 400 | 116 | 23 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 100 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 290 | 344 | 455 | 799 | 165 | 355 | 23 | 7 | 349 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 51 | 46 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 174 | 255 | 217 | 472 | 43 | 279 | 33 | 6 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 40 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 300 | 265 | 565 | 88 | 236 | 22 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 123 | 117 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 256 | 293 | 299 | 592 | 43 | 395 | 36 | 4 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 234 | 212 | 56 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 86 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 264 | 325 | 330 | 655 | 66 | 411 | 37 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | ROK MLE | FCL Tigers | — | 17 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 400 | 471 | 467 | 937 | 67 | 635 | 24 | 12 | 455 | 194 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 55 | 52 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 273 | 346 | 619 | 115 | 340 | 35 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 118 | 111 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 162 | 205 | 225 | 430 | 63 | 249 | 36 | 3 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 398 | 363 | 76 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 123 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 275 | 336 | 611 | 127 | 283 | 31 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 409 | 104 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 122 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 254 | 296 | 384 | 679 | 130 | 327 | 28 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 91 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 297 | 266 | 563 | 76 | 283 | 29 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 91 | 76 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 237 | 363 | 329 | 692 | 92 | 310 | 20 | 11 | 325 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 374 | 345 | 91 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 135 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 264 | 315 | 313 | 628 | 49 | 425 | 36 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 374 | 331 | 104 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 100 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 314 | 385 | 384 | 769 | 69 | 440 | 27 | 9 | 348 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 173 | 163 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 233 | 270 | 502 | 80 | 287 | 35 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 173 | 158 | 40 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 314 | 380 | 694 | 127 | 336 | 27 | 7 | 311 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 398 | 363 | 76 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 123 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 275 | 336 | 611 | 127 | 288 | 31 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ RAW | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 398 | 351 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 93 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 346 | 413 | 759 | 151 | 328 | 23 | 8 | 340 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 409 | 104 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 122 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 254 | 296 | 384 | 679 | 130 | 336 | 28 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 400 | 116 | 23 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 100 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 290 | 344 | 455 | 799 | 165 | 355 | 23 | 7 | 349 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 91 | 79 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 297 | 266 | 563 | 76 | 260 | 29 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 374 | 345 | 91 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 135 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 264 | 315 | 313 | 628 | 49 | 416 | 36 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 173 | 162 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 233 | 272 | 504 | 80 | 278 | 35 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 398 | 362 | 76 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 123 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 275 | 337 | 612 | 127 | 283 | 31 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 413 | 104 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 122 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 252 | 296 | 380 | 676 | 128 | 327 | 28 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 173 | 162 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 233 | 272 | 504 | 80 | 278 | 35 | 4 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | A+ MLE | West Michigan Whitecaps | — | 398 | 362 | 76 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 123 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 275 | 337 | 612 | 127 | 283 | 31 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 440 | 413 | 104 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 122 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 252 | 296 | 380 | 676 | 128 | 327 | 28 | 5 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | DET | 2% | 380 | 353 | 84 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 107 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 236 | 284 | 361 | 644 | 125 | 313 | 28 | 5 | 287 | 80 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +8 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | DET | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 232 | 280 | 353 | 632 | 121 | 308 | 33 | 0 | 282 | 80 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | DET | 27% | 167 | 154 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 47 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 284 | 360 | 644 | 125 | 311 | 28 | 5 | 287 | 80 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | DET | 27% | 45 | 42 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 280 | 352 | 632 | 121 | 306 | 29 | 4 | 282 | 80 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 42 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 289 | 357 | 646 | 119 | 321 | 29 | 4 | 282 | 71 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 144 | 29 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 188 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 237 | 288 | 354 | 642 | 117 | 321 | 29 | 4 | 282 | 71 | -15 | +0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1798 | 1657 | 386 | 64 | 14 | 26 | 93 | 557 | 32 | 13 | 2 | 233 | 287 | 336 | 622 | 103 | 331 | 31 | 5 | 274 | 71 | -8 | +0 | +0 | -6 | +7 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 139 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 34 | 201 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 232 | 287 | 332 | 619 | 100 | 330 | 31 | 5 | 274 | 71 | -15 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAErie SeaWolves · 440 PAwOBA .345 → .294 (−50)K% 22.7% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 24.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 6.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.83% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .345 → .294; ISO .165 → .133; BABIP .355 → .327. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 398 PAwOBA .333 → .264 (−69)K% 23.4% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.37% | ÷0.960 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.29% | ÷1.106 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 5.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.02% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 2.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.03% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×0.978 | 20.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷0.948 | ×0.810 | ×0.996 | ×0.978 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.996 | ×0.978 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷0.850 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.57% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 92, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .333 → .264; ISO .151 → .128; BABIP .328 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 118 PAwOBA .287 → .199 (−89)K% 27.1% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.12% | ÷1.028 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.08% | ÷1.061 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 3.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.78% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×0.980 | 18.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.39% | ÷1.351 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×0.980 | 6.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×0.980 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷1.099 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.85% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 170, 3B 121, K 106, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .287 → .199; ISO .128 → .075; BABIP .316 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 55 PAwOBA .333 → .270 (−63)K% 25.5% → 33.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.45% | ÷0.957 | ×1.270 | — | — | 33.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.026 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 25.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷0.892 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 7.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.54% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .333 → .270; ISO .122 → .103; BABIP .382 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 234 PAwOBA .342 → .281 (−61)K% 26.5% → 36.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.50% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.83% | ÷1.089 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.71% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.92% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 35.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.93% | ÷1.056 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 4.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.020 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 1.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.216 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 91, 2B 111, 3B 104, K 95, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .342 → .281; ISO .078 → .059; BABIP .424 → .411. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 123 PAwOBA .299 → .257 (−41)K% 28.5% → 35.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.46% | ÷1.007 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.69% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 4.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.46% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 36.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 2.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷0.882 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .299 → .257; ISO .044 → .037; BABIP .416 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Tigers · 17 PAwOBA .631 → .455 (−175)K% 17.6% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.972 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.987 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 10.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 63.64% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 51.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.014 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 12.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.924 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .631 → .455; ISO .143 → .096; BABIP .818 → .635. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 51 PAwOBA .290 → .227 (−63)K% 23.5% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷0.982 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.80% | ÷0.998 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.92% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 3.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | — | — | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷0.974 | ×0.830 | — | — | 7.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.279 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 108, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .290 → .227; ISO .068 → .053; BABIP .312 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).