Marcus Johnson

P Durham Bulls

Age 26 RHP 6'6" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	MIX2 levels	7	6	16	2.20	2.86	21.0%	4.8%	—	K 21.0% · BB 4.8% · FIP 2.83
2025	24	A+TB	25	25	138	4.50	4.09	24.2%	2.8%	—	K 18.6% · BB 3.2% · FIP 5.56
2026	25	MIX2 levels	10	9	34	8.55	6.52	15.4%	7.1%	—	K 12.7% · BB 6.6% · FIP 6.98
2027PROJ	26	MLBTB	10	10	60	5.00	5.00	14.3%	3.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBTB	8	8	46	4.89	4.91	15.1%	3.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBTB	12	12	71	4.89	4.94	15.5%	4.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Ext$3M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff49Control65Command59FB velo30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsCole De Vries (age 27) · Ryan Watson (age 25) · Jason Forjet (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%14.3%

BB%3.3%

K-BB%11.1%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6565

CMD5560

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	5	4	17	73	29	11	2	80%	3.3	34.8%	16.2%	18.6%	5.3%	5.94	5.13	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	5	4	17	73	29	11	2	80%	3.3	39.7%	15.1%	24.7%	2.7%	5.94	3.16	—
2023	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	26	24	130	536	114	21	12	92%	5.0	15.7%	4.6%	11.1%	2.7%	3.74	3.84	—
2023	22	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	26	24	130	536	114	21	12	92%	5.0	21.3%	3.9%	17.4%	2.2%	3.74	3.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	16	62	13	3	1	86%	2.3	21.0%	4.8%	16.1%	1.6%	2.20	2.83	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	6	16	62	13	3	1	86%	2.3	21.0%	4.8%	16.1%	1.6%	2.20	2.83	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	6	16	62	13	3	1	86%	2.3	21.0%	4.8%	16.1%	1.6%	2.20	2.86	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	138	570	138	16	28	100%	5.5	18.6%	3.2%	15.4%	6.6%	4.50	5.56	—
2025	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	138	570	138	16	28	100%	5.5	18.6%	3.2%	15.4%	6.6%	4.50	5.56	—
2025	24	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	25	25	138	570	138	16	28	100%	5.5	24.2%	2.8%	21.4%	4.9%	4.50	4.09	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	34	156	24	11	10	90%	3.4	12.7%	6.6%	6.1%	7.5%	8.55	6.98	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	9	34	156	24	11	10	90%	3.4	12.7%	6.6%	6.1%	7.5%	8.55	6.98	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	9	34	156	24	11	10	90%	3.4	15.4%	7.1%	8.3%	6.4%	8.55	6.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	TB	10	10	60	253	36	8	11	100%	6.0	14.3%	3.3%	11.1%	4.2%	5.00	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	122	516	78	20	21	100%	6.1	15.1%	3.8%	11.3%	4.2%	4.95	4.97	-0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	119	501	78	21	21	100%	5.9	15.5%	4.2%	11.2%	4.2%	4.95	5.00	-0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	113	478	74	22	20	100%	6.0	15.6%	4.6%	10.9%	4.3%	5.02	5.09	-0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	106	450	69	23	20	100%	5.9	15.4%	5.0%	10.4%	4.4%	5.15	5.25	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	46	194	29	7	8	100%	5.8	15.1%	3.8%	11.3%	4.0%	4.89	4.91	-0.0
2029	28	MLB CTX	TB	12	12	71	300	46	13	12	100%	5.9	15.5%	4.2%	11.2%	4.1%	4.89	4.94	-0.1
2030	29	MLB CTX	TB	13	13	80	338	53	16	14	100%	6.2	15.6%	4.6%	10.9%	4.1%	4.96	5.03	-0.2
2031	30	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	83	350	54	18	15	100%	5.9	15.4%	5.0%	10.4%	4.3%	5.08	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	280	1183	182	53	49	100%	6.0	15.4%	4.5%	10.9%	4.2%	4.97	4.65	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	130	38	35	100%	6.0	15.4%	4.5%	10.9%	4.2%	4.97	4.65	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		73	68	335	1397	249	68	69	93%	4.6	17.8%	4.9%	12.9%	4.9%	4.57	4.91	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	41	200	835	149	41	41	93%	4.6	17.8%	4.9%	12.9%	4.9%	4.57	4.91	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Marcus Johnson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	14.3%	3.3%	4.2%	—	5.02	15.4%	11.2%	354	+0.02	—	—	—
Cole De Vries R 2012 · 4.73 FIP	27	SP	4.73	15.5%	4.8%	4.2%	.254	7.58	15.8%	4.0%	15	+2.85	4.73	103	82
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	79
Jason Forjet R 2016 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	15.9%	5.5%	3.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	197	75
Wilmer Font R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	26	SP	3.82	17.0%	4.9%	2.8%	.277	3.84	26.2%	19.1%	263	+0.02	2.76	345	74
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	74
J.D. Martin R 2009 · 5.18 FIP	26	SP	5.18	10.9%	5.9%	4.1%	.263	4.79	14.6%	9.9%	48	-0.39	4.79	414	72
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	71
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	26	SP	4.61	16.0%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.54	21.7%	13.5%	105	-1.07	2.42	444	71
Christian Bergman R 2014 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	12.4%	3.2%	3.2%	.328	4.39	14.4%	9.0%	285	+0.17	3.99	521	70
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	70
Matt Ginter R 2004 · 4.08 FIP	26	SP	4.08	12.1%	4.8%	2.6%	.294	5.04	9.6%	4.5%	35	+0.96	3.45	229	69
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	69
Kyle Snyder R 2003 · 4.48 FIP	25	SP	4.48	10.7%	4.9%	3.0%	.280	4.22	16.6%	11.0%	96	-0.26	3.80	236	69
Josh Banks R 2008 · 4.81 FIP	26	SP-	4.81	11.6%	7.3%	3.2%	.283	6.01	9.0%	6.0%	23	+1.20	4.81	108	69
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	69
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	69
Tanner Gordon R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	16.4%	4.5%	5.1%	.336	4.27	17.9%	13.4%	258	-0.83	4.10	715	69
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	69
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	68
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	104	15.3%	4.3%	1.64	5.01
Josh Tomlin ('21)	5.3	97	16.5%	3.4%	1.66	4.77
Joe Ostrowski ('48-'52, 1 WAR*)	2.3	91	13.8%*	3.8%*	1.44*	4.49*
Mark Knudson ('85-'93, -0 WAR*)	2.4	96	12.2%*	5.9%*	1.44*	5.03*
Christian Bergman ('18)	1.1	54	13.8%	5.2%	1.67	5.59
Adrian Sampson ('22)	1.5	73	17.5%	6.1%	1.69	4.43
Bud Thomas ('32-'41, 2 WAR*)	2.6	132	12.6%*	6.0%*	1.48*	4.49*