Tyler Owens

P Altoona Curve

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 185 lbs AA

Overview

AARPROOKIEFG #953

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	AADET	39	0	52	2.96	2.65	25.7%	7.5%	—	K 20.8% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.36
2025	24	MIX3 levels	32	1	33	6.21	5.65	17.7%	15.9%	-0.4	K 16.4% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.84
2026	25	MIX2 levels	44	0	52	4.13	3.62	23.5%	8.3%	—	K 19.7% · BB 9.4% · FIP 4.52
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	57	0	60	4.98	4.98	19.4%	10.9%	-0.3
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBPIT	21	0	22	4.93	4.95	19.8%	10.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBPIT	32	0	34	4.94	4.99	19.9%	10.9%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command40FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsManny Barreda (age 26) · Matt Festa (age 26) · Vinny Nittoli (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.98

FIP4.98

K%19.4%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD4040

K†4545

FB (70%)

SL (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	2	1	4	14	4	1	0	50%	2.0	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.25	1.59	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	2	1	4	14	4	1	0	50%	2.0	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.25	1.85	—
2021	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	6	4	14	74	17	6	2	67%	2.3	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	2.9%	7.07	4.49	—
2021	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	6	4	14	74	17	6	2	67%	2.3	23.0%	8.1%	14.9%	2.7%	7.07	3.81	—
2022	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	32	4	62	280	67	28	6	12%	1.9	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	2.5%	5.20	4.46	—
2022	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	32	4	62	280	67	28	6	12%	1.9	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	2.1%	5.20	3.55	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	15	65	286	67	22	5	52%	2.3	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	3.03	3.92	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	15	65	286	67	22	5	52%	2.3	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	1.7%	3.03	3.05	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	39	0	52	214	55	16	3	0%	1.3	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	1.8%	2.96	3.36	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	39	0	52	214	55	16	3	0%	1.3	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	1.8%	2.96	3.36	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	39	0	52	214	55	16	3	0%	1.3	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	1.4%	2.96	2.65	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	1	33	164	29	26	5	3%	1.0	16.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.4%	6.21	5.84	-0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	1	33	164	29	26	5	3%	1.0	16.4%	13.3%	3.0%	4.4%	6.21	5.84	-0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	1	33	164	29	26	5	3%	1.0	17.7%	15.9%	1.8%	3.0%	6.21	5.65	-0.4
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	52	230	54	19	6	0%	1.2	19.7%	9.4%	10.2%	3.4%	4.13	4.52	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	52	230	54	19	6	0%	1.2	19.7%	9.4%	10.2%	3.4%	4.13	4.52	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	52	230	54	19	6	0%	1.2	23.5%	8.3%	15.2%	2.6%	4.13	3.62	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	3	15	1	3	0	0%	1.0	6.7%	20.0%	-13.3%	0.0%	3.00	5.43	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	57	0	60	253	49	28	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.9%	8.4%	3.2%	4.98	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	56	0	59	247	49	27	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.93	4.95	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	54	0	57	240	48	26	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.3%	4.94	4.99	-0.3
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	21	0	22	93	18	10	3	0%	1.0	19.8%	10.8%	8.9%	3.2%	4.93	4.95	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	32	0	34	144	29	16	5	0%	1.1	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	3.3%	4.94	4.99	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	251	48	29	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.62	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	852	163	99	27	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.4%	7.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.62	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		184	25	283	1262	235	127	35	14%	1.5	18.6%	10.1%	8.6%	2.8%	4.26	4.31	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	18	200	892	166	90	25	14%	1.5	18.6%	10.1%	8.6%	2.8%	4.26	4.31	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Owens (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.98	19.4%	10.9%	3.2%	—	4.97	19.8%	9.0%	115	-0.01	—	—	—
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	84
Matt Festa R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	21.9%	11.2%	3.6%	.246	4.11	29.9%	23.0%	75	-0.55	2.57	481	82
Vinny Nittoli R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	20.8%	9.7%	3.8%	.286	4.18	19.0%	12.1%	61	-0.48	3.66	331	82
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	81
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	80
Tyler Bashlor R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	20.7%	11.7%	3.7%	.258	4.10	23.7%	13.0%	38	-0.78	2.55	253	80
D.J. Carrasco R 2003 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	16.1%	10.1%	2.2%	.291	4.66	10.5%	1.4%	150	+0.39	3.23	490	80
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	80
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	80
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	80
Ricky Stone R 2002 · 4.16 FIP	27	SU	4.16	18.8%	9.3%	2.7%	.297	4.96	13.7%	7.4%	165	+0.80	4.16	243	79
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	79
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	79
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	79
Nick Robertson R 2024 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	20.3%	9.9%	3.2%	.342	3.80	23.4%	13.4%	108	-0.61	3.08	337	79
Ryan Middendorf R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	19.1%	9.0%	4.0%	.293	4.41	12.7%	-1.1%	34	-0.43	1.27	164	79
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	79
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	79
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	79
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	19.4%	11.1%	1.23	4.92
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*