Nick Robertson
P
Tulsa Drillers
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.78
FIP4.97
K%22.6%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%9.7%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
SL+0.9 (32%)
CH (23%)
FB-1.9 (45%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.0% | 0.0% | 35.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.14 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.0% | 0.0% | 35.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.48 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 39 | 1 | 59 | 244 | 63 | 17 | 5 | 3% | 1.5 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 3.53 | 3.86 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 39 | 1 | 59 | 244 | 63 | 17 | 5 | 3% | 1.5 | 25.8% | 7.0% | 18.9% | 2.0% | 3.53 | 2.93 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 2 | 67 | 297 | 87 | 28 | 7 | 4% | 1.3 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.40 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 53 | 2 | 67 | 297 | 87 | 28 | 7 | 4% | 1.3 | 29.3% | 9.4% | 19.9% | 2.4% | 4.43 | 3.11 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 1 | 65 | 281 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 27.4% | 7.3% | 20.1% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 3.35 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 1 | 65 | 281 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2% | 1.1 | 29.9% | 7.1% | 22.8% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 3.04 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 50 | 230 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 6.12 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 42 | 0 | 50 | 230 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.6% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 3.0% | 6.12 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 43 | 0 | 52 | 223 | 52 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.30 | 4.77 | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 43 | 0 | 52 | 223 | 52 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 13.5% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.30 | 4.32 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Oklahoma City Comets | 28 | 0 | 37 | 135 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.5% | 5.8% | 20.7% | 2.1% | 0.49 | 2.77 | +0.8 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | LAD | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | LAD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 100 | 401 | 107 | 43 | 11 | — | — | 26.7% | 10.8% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 3.19 | 4.16 | +1.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 22.6% | 12.9% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.78 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 57 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 56 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 5.06 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 52 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 26 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 1 | 85 | 369 | 85 | 36 | 13 | 1% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 4.33 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 2 | 200 | 869 | 200 | 85 | 31 | 1% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 3.6% | 5.13 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
| Career | — | 270 | 4 | 335 | 1430 | 334 | 138 | 42 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 3.98 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 2 | 200 | 853 | 199 | 82 | 25 | 1% | 1.2 | 23.3% | 9.6% | 13.7% | 3.0% | 3.95 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Robertson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 22.6% | 12.9% | 3.2% | — | 5.13 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 117 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.45 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.3% | .325 | 3.13 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.32 | 2.37 | 363 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 83 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | .306 | 3.27 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 110 | -1.03 | 2.50 | 520 | 80 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.99 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.88 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.89 | 3.99 | 130 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 80 |
| Trevor Cahill R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.23 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.63 | 21.1% | 11.2% | 310 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 556 | 79 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 78 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.53 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.5% | .219 | 4.93 | 30.1% | 17.0% | 86 | +0.40 | 1.95 | 523 | 78 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 78 |
| Cole McDonald R 2025 · 5.38 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.38 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 4.2% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 153 | 78 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 78 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 78 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 234 | 77 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 22.7% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.87 | 232 | 77 |
| Tyler Kinley R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.30 | 22.6% | 14.9% | 2.2% | .247 | 3.33 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 118 | -0.97 | 1.58 | 578 | 77 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 77 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.83 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 179 | 76 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.78 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | .318 | 4.25 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 118 | +0.47 | 3.17 | 446 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.69 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .297 | 4.04 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.65 | 4.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Joe Harvey R 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.13 | 24.9% | 14.3% | 4.2% | .258 | 5.83 | 26.7% | 6.8% | 17 | +0.70 | 2.55 | 197 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 1.30 | 4.92 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |