Nick Robertson
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.1
WAR
Age 28
RHP
6'6" / 235 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.96
FIP4.70
xFIP3.56
SIERA3.10
K%22.2%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.0%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p4794.3
Whiff%
p4424.5%
K%
p6825.5%
xwOBA vs
p310.334
SL+0.9 (32%)
CH (23%)
FB-1.9 (45%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21 | ROK | AZL Dodgers Lasorda | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 39 | 1 | 59 | 244 | 63 | 17 | 5 | 20.9% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.53 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 53 | 2 | 67 | 297 | 87 | 28 | 7 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.38 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 60 | 1 | 65 | 281 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 27.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 4.15 | 3.43 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 42 | 0 | 50 | 230 | 52 | 25 | 7 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 6.12 | 4.55 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Omaha Storm Chasers | 43 | 0 | 52 | 223 | 52 | 30 | 6 | 20.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | LAD | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 52 | 27 | 7 | 23.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 5.13 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 57 | 238 | 56 | 28 | 7 | 23.5% | 11.8% | 3.0% | 4.68 | 4.39 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 50 | 26 | 7 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.93 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 22.5% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.89 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 48 | — | 48 | 203 | 44 | 24 | 7 | 21.9% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 4.96 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 42 | 23 | 7 | 21.3% | 11.9% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 38 | 23 | 6 | 20.7% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 35 | 22 | 6 | 20.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 5.24 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 32 | 21 | 6 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 5.38 | 5.48 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 29 | 20 | 6 | 18.4% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 5.54 | 5.64 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 246 | 4 | 303 | 1312 | 302 | 131 | 39 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.06 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 162 | 3 | 200 | 865 | 199 | 86 | 26 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Robertson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.81 | 23.5% | 12.2% | 3.2% | — | 4.89 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 149 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Yennier Cano R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.48 | 23.2% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .325 | 3.14 | 23.4% | 16.2% | 191 | -1.34 | 2.39 | 332 | 83 |
| Derek Law R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.24 | 23.5% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.36 | 20.8% | 12.2% | 110 | -0.88 | 2.51 | 520 | 80 |
| Shintaro Fujinami R 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.01 | 23.2% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.91 | 22.5% | -2.9% | 51 | +0.90 | 4.01 | 130 | 80 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.09 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.54 | 2.28 | 186 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.82 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .275 | 6.70 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +1.88 | 3.88 | 180 | 80 |
| Kyle Barraclough R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.63 | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .219 | 5.06 | 30.1% | 17.0% | 86 | +0.43 | 1.95 | 523 | 79 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.85 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.87 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.98 | 3.45 | 315 | 79 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 79 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 78 |
| Juan Minaya R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.92 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .318 | 4.38 | 21.5% | 9.7% | 118 | +0.46 | 3.19 | 446 | 78 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .247 | 3.31 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.52 | 3.31 | 159 | 78 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 77 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 77 |
| Evan Gates R 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.02 | 22.5% | 11.8% | 2.4% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 242 | 77 |
| Steven Wilson R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.25 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 3.4% | .217 | 4.65 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 102 | +0.40 | 3.61 | 311 | 77 |
| Brandon Maurer R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.89 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.98 | 234 | 76 |
| Cristofer Ogando R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.92 | 20.6% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .236 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.23 | 179 | 76 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 76 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.61 | 22.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | .350 | 5.75 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 137 | +1.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 76 |
| Trevin Michael R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.