Nick Robertson — OGILVIE

Nick Robertson P Tulsa Drillers

Age 28 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION56 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.72

FIP4.84

K%21.9%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%10.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

SL+0.9 (32%)

CH (23%)

FB-1.9 (45%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	5	0	5	20	7	0	0	0%	1.1	35.0%	0.0%	35.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	5	0	5	20	7	0	0	0%	1.1	35.0%	0.0%	35.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.48	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	39	1	59	244	63	17	5	3%	1.5	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	2.6%	3.53	3.75	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	39	1	59	244	63	17	5	3%	1.5	25.8%	7.0%	18.9%	2.0%	3.53	2.93	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	2	67	297	87	28	7	4%	1.3	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.4%	4.43	4.39	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	2	67	297	87	28	7	4%	1.3	29.3%	9.4%	19.9%	2.4%	4.43	3.11	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	65	281	84	20	8	2%	1.1	26.4%	6.7%	19.7%	3.0%	4.15	3.38	+0.9
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	65	281	84	20	8	2%	1.1	26.4%	6.7%	19.7%	3.0%	4.15	3.38	+0.9
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	65	281	84	20	8	2%	1.1	29.9%	7.1%	22.8%	2.8%	4.15	3.04	+1.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	230	52	25	7	0%	1.2	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.2%	6.12	4.45	+0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	230	52	25	7	0%	1.2	19.8%	9.9%	9.9%	3.2%	6.12	4.45	+0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	50	230	52	25	7	0%	1.2	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	3.0%	6.12	4.34	+0.1
2025	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	43	0	52	223	52	30	6	0%	1.2	19.4%	12.1%	7.2%	3.0%	4.30	4.62	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	43	0	52	223	52	30	6	0%	1.2	19.4%	12.1%	7.2%	3.0%	4.30	4.62	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	43	0	52	223	52	30	6	0%	1.2	23.3%	13.5%	9.9%	2.7%	4.30	4.32	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	1	36	161	40	9	6	4%	1.3	24.8%	5.6%	19.3%	3.7%	5.30	3.80	+0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	46	0	56	214	68	18	4	0%	1.2	26.0%	8.1%	17.9%	2.1%	1.13	3.11	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Comets	46	0	56	214	68	18	4	0%	1.2	26.0%	8.1%	17.9%	2.1%	1.13	3.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	LAD	22	0	31	113	37	6	2	0%	1.4	32.7%	5.3%	27.4%	1.8%	0.59	1.98	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	LAD	24	0	25	101	31	12	2	0%	1.0	30.7%	11.9%	18.8%	2.0%	1.80	3.10	—
ROS	28	MLB MLE	LAD	5	0	6	24	5	3	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.5%	10.5%	3.2%	4.72	4.84	-0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	LAD	—	—	61	238	73	21	5	—	—	30.8%	8.7%	22.1%	2.0%	1.47	3.27	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	LAD	57	0	60	255	55	29	9	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.84	4.95	-0.3
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAD	54	0	57	239	50	28	8	0%	1.1	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.5%	4.99	5.11	-0.4
2027	29	MLB CTX	LAD	18	0	19	80	17	9	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.84	4.95	-0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAD	28	0	29	122	26	14	4	0%	1.0	20.9%	11.6%	9.3%	3.5%	4.99	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		73	1	84	364	83	32	13	1%	1.1	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	3.6%	5.09	4.27	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		174	2	200	869	198	76	31	1%	1.2	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	3.6%	5.09	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		288	4	354	1509	346	137	44	1%	1.2	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	2.9%	3.86	3.90	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	2	200	853	196	78	25	1%	1.2	22.9%	9.1%	13.8%	2.9%	3.86	3.90	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Robertson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	21.9%	11.5%	3.2%	—	5.03	21.2%	9.7%	117	+0.19	—	—	—
Yennier Cano R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	28	SU	4.46	23.2%	11.8%	3.3%	.325	3.19	23.4%	16.2%	191	-1.27	2.43	377	83
Bryan Shaw R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	28	SU	3.73	25.1%	9.1%	2.9%	.277	3.83	21.1%	12.7%	203	+0.10	2.78	596	82
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	82
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Cody Satterwhite R 2015 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	20.2%	9.8%	1.9%	.333	4.04	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.69	147	81
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	80
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	80
Trevor Cahill R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	28	SU	4.22	23.2%	11.8%	2.9%	.274	4.60	21.1%	11.2%	310	+0.38	3.37	556	79
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	79
Derek Law R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	23.5%	13.0%	2.8%	.306	3.31	20.8%	12.2%	110	-0.99	2.49	520	79
Juan Minaya R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	22.9%	9.7%	2.8%	.318	4.35	21.5%	9.7%	118	+0.45	3.20	446	78
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	78
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	78
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	78
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	78
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	78
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	77
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
Cristofer Ogando R 2022 · 4.90 FIP	28	SU	4.90	20.6%	11.6%	3.8%	.236	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	179	77
J.J. Hoover R 2016 · 4.56 FIP	28	SU	4.56	22.6%	8.6%	4.2%	.350	5.77	20.3%	10.0%	137	+1.21	4.22	258	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	21.5%	11.5%	1.30	4.85
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10