Nick Robertson

P Tulsa Drillers

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 235 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	42	50	6.12	4.34	22.6%	10.9%	0.1	K 20.3% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.41
2025	27	AAAKC	43	52	4.30	4.32	23.3%	13.5%	—	K 20.1% · BB 12.1% · FIP 4.56
2026	28	MIX2 levels	46	56	1.13	2.56	31.8%	8.4%	—	K 26.5% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.08
2027PROJ	29	MLBLAD	1	1	4.43	4.46	24.0%	10.5%	0.0
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBLAD	15	16	4.56	4.65	23.3%	10.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBLAD	21	22	4.73	4.86	22.5%	10.9%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%68

FB Velo47

xwOBA vs31

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Coleman Huntley III (age 29) · Ryan Brasier (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.43

FIP4.46

K%24.0%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%13.5%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4794.3

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	21	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	5	0	5	20	7	0	0	0%	1.1	35.0%	0.0%	35.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.14	—
2019	21	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers Lasorda	5	0	5	20	7	0	0	0%	1.1	35.0%	0.0%	35.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.48	—
2021	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	39	1	59	244	63	17	5	3%	1.5	20.9%	7.7%	13.2%	2.6%	3.53	3.75	—
2021	23	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	39	1	59	244	63	17	5	3%	1.5	25.8%	7.0%	18.9%	2.0%	3.53	2.93	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	2	67	297	87	28	7	4%	1.3	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.4%	4.43	4.39	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	2	67	297	87	28	7	4%	1.3	29.3%	9.4%	19.9%	2.4%	4.43	3.11	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	65	281	84	20	8	2%	1.1	27.0%	6.7%	20.3%	3.0%	4.15	3.33	+0.9
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	65	281	84	20	8	2%	1.1	29.9%	7.1%	22.8%	2.8%	4.15	3.04	+1.2
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	230	52	25	7	0%	1.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	3.2%	6.12	4.41	+0.1
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	50	230	52	25	7	0%	1.2	20.3%	9.9%	10.4%	3.2%	6.12	4.41	+0.1
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	50	230	52	25	7	0%	1.2	22.6%	10.9%	11.7%	3.0%	6.12	4.34	+0.1
2025	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	43	0	52	223	52	30	6	0%	1.2	20.1%	12.1%	7.9%	3.0%	4.30	4.56	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Omaha Storm Chasers	43	0	52	223	52	30	6	0%	1.2	20.1%	12.1%	7.9%	3.0%	4.30	4.56	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Omaha Storm Chasers	43	0	52	223	52	30	6	0%	1.2	23.3%	13.5%	9.9%	2.7%	4.30	4.32	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	214	68	18	4	0%	1.2	26.5%	8.1%	18.3%	2.1%	1.13	3.08	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	56	214	68	18	4	0%	1.2	26.5%	8.1%	18.3%	2.1%	1.13	3.08	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	56	214	68	18	4	0%	1.2	31.8%	8.4%	23.4%	1.9%	1.13	2.56	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			27	1	36	161	40	9	6	4%	1.3	24.8%	5.6%	19.3%	3.7%	5.30	3.80	+0.3
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	LAD	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.5%	13.5%	3.0%	4.43	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	LAD	50	0	53	222	52	24	7	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.65	-0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	LAD	42	0	44	185	42	20	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	3.5%	4.73	4.86	-0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	LAD	15	0	16	68	16	7	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.7%	12.6%	3.2%	4.56	4.65	-0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	LAD	21	0	22	93	21	10	3	0%	1.0	22.5%	10.9%	11.6%	3.5%	4.73	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		64	1	75	325	78	27	12	2%	1.2	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	3.5%	4.96	4.08	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		172	3	200	872	209	72	32	2%	1.2	23.8%	8.2%	15.6%	3.5%	4.96	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		288	4	354	1509	352	137	44	1%	1.2	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	2.9%	3.86	3.87	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	2	200	853	199	78	25	1%	1.2	23.3%	9.1%	14.2%	2.9%	3.86	3.87	+0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AATulsa Drillers · 31 IPFIP 1.98 → 2.77 (+0.79)K% 32.7% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.74%	—	×0.810	26.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.31%	—	×1.100	5.84%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷1.000	×1.200	2.12%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.98 → 2.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAOklahoma City Comets · 25 IPFIP 3.10 → 3.42 (+0.32)K% 30.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.69%	—	×0.860	26.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.88%	—	×0.900	10.69%
HR / BF /BF	1.98%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.10 → 3.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAOmaha Storm Chasers · 52 IPFIP 4.31 → 4.56 (+0.25)K% 23.3% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.32%	—	×0.860	20.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.45%	—	×0.900	12.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.69%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.95%

Result: FIP 4.31 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 37 IPFIP 4.19 → 4.42 (+0.23)K% 21.7% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.71%	—	×0.860	18.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.14%	—	×0.900	11.83%
HR / BF /BF	2.29%	÷0.990	×1.100	2.54%

Result: FIP 4.19 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 43 IPFIP 2.81 → 3.25 (+0.44)K% 33.1% → 28.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.14%	—	×0.860	28.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.43%	—	×0.900	6.69%
HR / BF /BF	2.86%	÷1.008	×1.100	3.12%

Result: FIP 2.81 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AATulsa Drillers · 55 IPFIP 3.47 → 4.39 (+0.91)K% 28.9% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.92%	—	×0.810	23.42%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.04%	—	×1.100	11.04%
HR / BF /BF	2.81%	÷0.993	×1.200	3.40%

Result: FIP 3.47 → 4.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 12 IPFIP 1.25 → 1.61 (+0.36)K% 31.2% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.25%	—	×0.880	27.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.25%	—	×1.050	6.56%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.997	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.25 → 1.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AATulsa Drillers · 59 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.75 (+0.82)K% 25.8% → 20.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.82%	—	×0.810	20.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.97%	—	×1.100	7.66%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷0.935	×1.200	2.63%

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Robertson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	24.0%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.75	22.9%	12.1%	96	+0.29	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	81
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	81
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	80
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	79
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	79
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	356	78
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	78
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	78
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	77
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	77
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	77
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	77
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	76
Blake Smith R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	28	SU	3.59	22.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.17	124	76
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	75
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	75
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	75
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	75
Chris Smith R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	29	SU	3.72	24.1%	9.3%	2.7%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	199	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	50	23.7%	10.0%	1.28	4.69
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*