Sayer Diederich

P Frederick Keys

Age 26 LHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

A+PROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX2 levels	12	2	34	3.21	2.12	31.4%	6.6%	—	K 26.0% · BB 7.4% · FIP 2.56
2026	25	A+BAL	2	0	3	16.88	9.85	11.8%	17.6%	—	K 11.8% · BB 17.6% · FIP 7.57
2027PROJ	26	MLBBAL	15	0	16	4.10	4.10	24.2%	8.2%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	27	MLBBAL	10	0	11	4.14	4.16	24.1%	8.4%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsPedro Feliciano (age 26) · Damaso Marte (age 26) · Chris Narveson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 95103vR 111

ERA4.10

FIP4.10

K%24.2%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%15.9%

Proj IP16

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	34	137	43	9	2	17%	2.8	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	1.3%	3.21	2.56	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	34	137	43	9	2	17%	2.8	26.0%	7.4%	18.6%	1.3%	3.21	2.56	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	2	34	137	43	9	2	17%	2.8	31.4%	6.6%	24.8%	1.5%	3.21	2.12	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	2	0	3	17	2	3	1	0%	1.3	11.8%	17.6%	-5.9%	5.9%	16.88	7.57	—
2026	25	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	2	0	3	17	2	3	1	0%	1.3	11.8%	17.6%	-5.9%	5.9%	16.88	7.57	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	2	0	3	17	2	3	1	0%	1.3	11.8%	17.6%	-5.9%	5.9%	16.88	9.85	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	BAL	15	0	16	68	16	6	2	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.2%	15.9%	2.9%	4.10	4.10	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	28	0	30	126	30	11	4	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.0%	4.14	4.16	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	10	0	11	46	11	4	1	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.0%	4.14	4.16	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	11	4	1	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.0%	4.14	3.78	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	201	73	18	0%	1.1	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	3.0%	4.14	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		14	2	36	154	38	13	3	14%	2.6	24.4%	8.6%	15.9%	1.8%	4.21	3.11	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	11	200	848	207	73	15	14%	2.6	24.4%	8.6%	15.9%	1.8%	4.21	3.11	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sayer Diederich (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	24.2%	8.2%	2.9%	—	4.16	24.1%	15.7%	30	+0.06	—	—	—
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	80
Damaso Marte L 2001 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	25.3%	5.8%	3.2%	.287	3.09	26.5%	17.9%	214	-0.39	2.41	495	78
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	77
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	76
Michael Johnson L 2017 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.7%	9.5%	3.1%	.272	5.19	13.4%	3.4%	67	+0.99	3.92	256	74
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	74
Onelki Garcia L 2016 · 2.99 FIP	26	SW	2.99	19.7%	6.3%	1.4%	.277	4.02	16.5%	7.2%	75	+1.03	2.99	164	74
Tyler Holton L 2022 · 4.30 FIP	26	SU	4.30	20.7%	9.8%	3.1%	.288	3.67	21.7%	16.8%	258	-0.63	2.97	439	74
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	74
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	74
Colton Turner L 2017 · 3.55 FIP	26	SU	3.55	19.6%	5.4%	2.6%	.311	3.84	21.9%	13.0%	158	+0.29	2.79	325	73
Giovanni Soto L 2017 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	25.6%	10.5%	3.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	128	73
Kit Scheetz L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	22.9%	8.7%	3.9%	.340	5.08	16.2%	2.6%	55	+0.66	2.34	195	73
Jackson Lancaster L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	25	SU	4.48	24.0%	11.1%	3.6%	.355	5.36	18.3%	4.9%	93	+0.88	4.15	142	73
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	72
Wesley Wright L 2010 · 4.85 FIP	25	SW	4.85	19.6%	8.8%	4.2%	.310	3.38	23.9%	16.5%	106	-1.47	3.03	375	72
Luis González L 2018 · 3.33 FIP	26	SU	3.33	23.4%	9.3%	1.9%	.290	5.03	24.6%	16.7%	74	+1.70	3.15	416	72
Jeff Malm L 2016 · 3.13 FIP	25	SU	3.13	22.0%	7.2%	1.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	101	72
Taylor Lehman L 2022 · 2.98 FIP	26	SW	2.98	22.5%	8.6%	1.3%	.281	5.09	20.0%	5.2%	85	+2.11	2.98	171	71
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	71