Adrian Chaidez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Adrian Chaidez P Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%21.9%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	4	0	6	31	15	3	0	0%	1.6	48.4%	9.7%	38.7%	0.0%	7.11	0.24	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	4	0	6	31	15	3	0	0%	1.6	48.4%	9.7%	38.7%	0.0%	7.11	-0.22	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	14	99	441	111	60	17	50%	3.5	20.1%	15.0%	5.1%	4.4%	5.55	5.75	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	14	99	441	111	60	17	50%	3.5	25.2%	13.6%	11.6%	3.9%	5.55	4.91	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	18	6	45	209	50	31	6	33%	2.5	19.4%	16.3%	3.1%	2.6%	6.75	4.96	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	18	6	45	209	50	31	6	33%	2.5	19.4%	16.3%	3.1%	2.6%	6.75	4.96	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	18	6	45	209	50	31	6	33%	2.5	23.9%	14.8%	9.1%	2.9%	6.75	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	HOU	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.9%	12.2%	9.6%	3.0%	4.82	4.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	HOU	25	0	26	111	24	13	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	HOU	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.82	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.82	4.47	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	21.9%	12.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.82	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		50	20	151	681	144	103	25	40%	3.0	21.2%	15.2%	6.0%	3.7%	5.97	5.26	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	27	200	904	191	137	33	40%	3.0	21.2%	15.2%	6.0%	3.7%	5.97	5.26	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Chaidez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	21.9%	12.2%	3.0%	—	4.85	21.9%	9.8%	26	+0.03	—	—	—
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	76
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	75
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	75
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	75
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	74
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	73
Shawn Dubin R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	20.0%	12.9%	3.3%	.292	3.97	21.8%	11.4%	79	-0.90	3.02	341	73
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	73
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	72
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	72
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	71
Cody Sedlock R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	27	SW	4.21	20.1%	13.0%	2.1%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	378	70
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	70
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	70
Nolan Sanburn R 2017 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.0%	10.4%	2.5%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	169	70
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	70
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	69
Orlando Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	27	SW	4.67	13.7%	10.6%	2.5%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	119	69
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	69
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.9%	12.1%	1.17	4.82
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99