Jonatan Bernal — OGILVIE

Jonatan Bernal P Reno Aces

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 194 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%11.3%

BB%8.4%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	9	8	33	133	21	5	3	89%	3.7	10.7%	4.7%	6.0%	3.2%	3.27	4.52	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	9	8	33	133	21	5	3	89%	3.7	15.8%	3.8%	12.0%	2.3%	3.27	3.46	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	12	9	43	195	35	12	6	75%	3.6	12.2%	7.7%	4.5%	4.3%	4.43	5.41	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	12	9	43	195	35	12	6	75%	3.6	17.9%	6.2%	11.8%	3.1%	4.43	4.13	—
2022	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	23	11	91	398	74	30	9	48%	4.0	13.8%	8.9%	4.9%	2.6%	5.14	4.48	—
2022	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	23	11	91	398	74	30	9	48%	4.0	18.6%	7.5%	11.1%	2.3%	5.14	3.75	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	63	254	51	15	6	94%	3.9	14.0%	6.2%	7.7%	3.4%	3.88	4.55	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	15	63	254	51	15	6	94%	3.9	14.0%	6.2%	7.7%	3.4%	3.88	4.55	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	15	63	254	51	15	6	94%	3.9	20.1%	5.9%	14.2%	2.4%	3.88	3.44	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	8	72	312	51	21	11	38%	3.4	12.9%	7.5%	5.5%	3.3%	4.98	4.75	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	8	72	312	51	21	11	38%	3.4	12.9%	7.5%	5.5%	3.3%	4.98	4.75	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	8	72	312	51	21	11	38%	3.4	16.3%	6.7%	9.6%	3.5%	4.98	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	38	3	76	319	71	32	8	8%	2.0	17.2%	10.1%	7.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.58	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	38	3	76	319	71	32	8	8%	2.0	17.2%	10.1%	7.2%	3.0%	4.52	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	ARI	2	0	4	15	7	0	0	0%	2.1	46.7%	0.0%	46.7%	0.0%	2.08	-0.84	—
2026	24	AA RAW	ARI	13	2	32	123	37	9	4	15%	2.5	30.1%	7.3%	22.8%	3.3%	2.51	3.27	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	ARI	23	1	39	181	27	23	4	4%	1.7	14.9%	12.7%	2.2%	2.2%	6.46	4.66	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	6	24	3	2	1	0%	1.1	11.3%	8.4%	2.9%	3.1%	5.26	5.26	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	81	343	74	34	9	—	—	21.5%	9.9%	11.6%	2.5%	4.57	4.63	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	ARI	71	0	75	317	44	26	10	0%	1.1	13.9%	8.3%	5.5%	3.0%	5.08	5.03	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	ARI	71	0	75	317	49	26	10	0%	1.1	15.4%	8.3%	7.0%	3.0%	4.95	4.90	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	ARI	70	0	74	312	49	26	10	0%	1.1	15.8%	8.5%	7.3%	3.1%	4.91	4.91	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	ARI	68	0	72	303	48	26	10	0%	1.1	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	3.2%	4.95	4.98	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	ARI	65	0	68	289	45	26	10	0%	1.1	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	3.3%	5.05	5.11	-0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	ARI	61	0	64	272	41	25	10	0%	1.1	15.2%	9.2%	6.1%	3.5%	5.19	5.29	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	ARI	34	0	36	152	21	13	5	0%	1.1	13.9%	8.3%	5.5%	3.0%	5.08	5.03	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	52	220	34	18	7	0%	1.0	15.4%	8.3%	7.0%	3.0%	4.95	4.90	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55	0	58	245	39	21	8	0%	1.1	15.8%	8.5%	7.3%	3.1%	4.91	4.91	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	ARI	58	0	61	258	41	22	8	0%	1.1	15.8%	8.6%	7.2%	3.2%	4.95	4.98	-0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	ARI	57	0	60	253	40	22	8	0%	1.1	15.6%	8.9%	6.7%	3.3%	5.05	5.11	-0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	ARI	55	0	58	245	37	22	9	0%	1.1	15.2%	9.2%	6.1%	3.5%	5.19	5.29	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		311	0	327	1381	212	119	44	0%	1.1	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	3.2%	5.02	4.66	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	130	73	27	0%	1.1	15.4%	8.7%	6.7%	3.2%	5.02	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		119	54	377	1611	224	128	51	45%	3.2	13.9%	7.9%	6.0%	3.2%	4.53	4.68	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	29	200	854	119	68	27	45%	3.2	13.9%	7.9%	6.0%	3.2%	4.53	4.68	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonatan Bernal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	11.3%	8.4%	3.1%	—	4.95	15.0%	6.6%	224	-0.31	—	—	—
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	90
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	86
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	86
Kelvis Valerio R 2016 · 4.23 FIP	24	SW	4.23	11.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.317	4.14	11.7%	4.6%	100	-0.09	4.14	266	84
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	84
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	83
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	83
Drasen Johnson R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	24	SW	4.70	9.6%	5.7%	3.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.70	110	83
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	83
Devin Burke R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	11.7%	7.0%	2.3%	.275	4.20	13.7%	8.8%	87	-0.07	4.20	149	82
Abel Amaya R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	24	SW	4.38	7.0%	4.9%	2.3%	.264	6.88	8.5%	5.1%	12	+2.50	4.38	109	81
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	81
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	80
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	80
Joel De La Cruz R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	10.3%	6.7%	2.0%	.276	4.61	14.4%	5.8%	120	+0.42	4.19	205	80
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	80
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	80
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	80
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	79
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	71	14.7%	8.6%	1.23	5.05
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77