Jonatan Bernal — OGILVIE

Jonatan Bernal P Amarillo Sod Poodles

+0.0 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'1" / 194 lbs AA peak 0.4 · 2027

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%18.3%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%9.8%

IP67

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2027

STUF3030

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3045

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	9	8	33	133	21	5	3	10.7%	4.7%	3.2%	3.27	4.52	+0.2
2021	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	12	9	43	195	35	12	6	12.2%	7.7%	4.3%	4.43	5.41	-0.2
2022	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	23	11	91	398	74	30	9	13.8%	8.9%	2.7%	5.14	4.52	+0.7
2024	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	16	15	63	254	51	15	6	14.0%	6.2%	3.3%	3.88	4.54	+0.3
2025	23	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	21	8	72	312	51	21	11	12.9%	7.5%	3.2%	4.98	4.72	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	4	0	9	36	11	3	1	—	—	—	2.89	—	—
ROS	24	MLB	ARI	12	12	67	283	45	27	9	15.9%	9.4%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	+0.0
2026 Total	24	MLB	ARI	—	—	76	319	56	30	10	17.6%	9.3%	3.0%	4.74	4.39	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	ARI	12	12	68	287	50	27	9	17.3%	9.3%	3.0%	4.89	4.86	+0.1
2028	26	MLB	ARI	12	12	68	287	52	26	9	18.0%	9.2%	3.0%	4.81	4.79	+0.2
2029	27	MLB	ARI	12	12	67	285	52	26	9	18.3%	9.2%	3.0%	4.78	4.77	+0.2
2030	28	MLB	ARI	12	12	66	280	52	26	9	18.4%	9.3%	3.1%	4.78	4.79	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	ARI	12	12	65	274	50	26	9	18.2%	9.4%	3.1%	4.81	4.83	+0.1
2032	30	MLB	ARI	11	11	63	266	48	25	8	18.1%	9.5%	3.2%	4.86	4.90	+0.1
2033	31	MLB	ARI	11	11	61	257	46	25	8	17.8%	9.6%	3.2%	4.93	4.97	-0.0
2034	32	MLB	ARI	58	—	58	247	43	24	8	17.5%	9.8%	3.3%	5.01	5.06	-0.1
2035	33	MLB	ARI	56	—	56	236	41	23	8	17.2%	9.9%	3.4%	5.10	5.15	-0.1
2036	34	MLB	ARI	53	—	53	224	38	23	8	16.9%	10.1%	3.5%	5.20	5.26	-0.2
2037	35	MLB	ARI	50	—	50	211	35	22	8	16.5%	10.4%	3.6%	5.31	5.39	-0.2
2038	36	MLB	ARI	47	—	47	198	32	21	7	16.1%	10.6%	3.7%	5.44	5.52	-0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			85	51	311	1328	180	99	43	13.5%	7.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.67	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—			55	33	200	854	116	64	28	13.5%	7.4%	3.2%	4.49	4.67	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonatan Bernal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	15.9%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.81	17.9%	8.6%	203	-0.19	—	—	—
David Reid-Foley R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	24	SW	4.63	13.8%	8.8%	2.9%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.91	4.63	110	93
Scott Burke R 2026 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.31	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.76	4.55	119	92
Pedro Echemendia R 2027 · 4.82 FIP	25	SW	4.82	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	4.37	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.45	4.37	141	92
Troy Neiman R 2026 · 4.57 FIP	24	SW	4.57	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.53	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.04	3.99	199	92
Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	24	SW	4.16	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	4.19	16.8%	7.5%	66	+0.03	4.16	135	91
Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	24	SW	4.75	17.1%	8.9%	3.6%	.335	3.98	18.1%	8.5%	129	-0.77	3.43	183	91
Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.90 FIP	24	SW	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.59	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.31	4.59	146	91
Rob Griswold R 2026 · 4.52 FIP	24	SW	4.52	16.8%	8.3%	3.3%	.244	4.35	12.5%	6.2%	144	-0.17	3.57	203	90
Alejandro Barraza R 2026 · 4.29 FIP	24	SW	4.29	13.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.291	4.60	13.1%	4.7%	93	+0.31	3.31	174	90
Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	24	SW	4.42	16.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.275	3.92	26.0%	14.1%	62	-0.50	2.30	189	90
Alex Hermeling R 2026 · 3.99 FIP	24	SW	3.99	16.5%	8.1%	2.3%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	90
Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	25	SW	4.53	16.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.338	3.89	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.64	3.89	143	90
Stephen Villines R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.13	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.83	2.14	156	90
Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	24	SW	4.15	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.68	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.47	3.13	143	89
Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SW	3.87	17.8%	9.8%	1.9%	.309	3.25	24.8%	15.5%	104	-0.62	2.78	312	89
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.07	120	89
Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.84 FIP	23	SW	3.84	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.79	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.95	3.84	190	89
Trey Cochran-Gill R 2025 · 4.10 FIP	23	SW	4.10	15.3%	7.9%	2.4%	.294	4.60	14.5%	4.4%	112	+0.50	3.51	258	89
Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.41	17.3%	3.8%	141	+0.42	3.65	255	88
David Berg R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	14.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.41	123	88

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.