Jonatan Bernal
P
Amarillo Sod Poodles
Age 24
RHP
6'1" / 194 lbs
AA
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138129vR 119
ERA5.28
FIP5.28
K%11.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%2.1%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 120 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 9 | 8 | 33 | 133 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 89% | 3.7 | 10.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 3.27 | 4.52 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 9 | 8 | 33 | 133 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 89% | 3.7 | 15.8% | 3.8% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 3.27 | 3.46 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 12 | 9 | 43 | 195 | 35 | 12 | 6 | 75% | 3.6 | 12.2% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.43 | 5.41 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 12 | 9 | 43 | 195 | 35 | 12 | 6 | 75% | 3.6 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 11.8% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.13 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 11 | 91 | 398 | 74 | 30 | 9 | 48% | 4.0 | 13.8% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 5.14 | 4.33 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 23 | 11 | 91 | 398 | 74 | 30 | 9 | 48% | 4.0 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 5.14 | 3.75 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 63 | 254 | 51 | 15 | 6 | 94% | 3.9 | 14.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 3.88 | 4.51 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 15 | 63 | 254 | 51 | 15 | 6 | 94% | 3.9 | 20.1% | 5.9% | 14.2% | 2.4% | 3.88 | 3.44 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 8 | 72 | 312 | 51 | 21 | 11 | 38% | 3.4 | 12.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 4.98 | 4.40 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 8 | 72 | 312 | 51 | 21 | 11 | 38% | 3.4 | 16.3% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | 4.98 | 4.54 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Reno Aces | 24 | 2 | 52 | 210 | 55 | 19 | 5 | 8% | 2.2 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.61 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 32 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.3% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | ARI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.3% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 5.28 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 120 | 494 | 87 | 45 | 13 | — | — | 17.6% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.55 | 4.88 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 11.3% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 5.28 | 4.90 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 40 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 44 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 45 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 43 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.9% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 29 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 4.91 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 35 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 0 | 183 | 774 | 119 | 71 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 4.58 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 77 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 4.98 | 4.58 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 53 | 354 | 1502 | 211 | 118 | 45 | 50% | 3.4 | 14.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.54 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 30 | 200 | 849 | 119 | 66 | 25 | 50% | 3.4 | 14.1% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 4.40 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jonatan Bernal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.28 | 11.3% | 9.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.96 | 15.0% | 5.9% | 203 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Marco Camarena R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.53 | 11.0% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .365 | 3.81 | 8.4% | 0.9% | 73 | -0.72 | 3.81 | 142 | 86 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 85 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2028 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 84 |
| Cooper Adams R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 84 |
| LJ Brewster R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.90 | 9.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 143 | 82 |
| Wirkin Estevez R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.36 | 10.7% | 13.4% | 2.7% | .316 | 4.42 | 12.3% | 3.5% | 179 | -0.94 | 4.24 | 238 | 82 |
| Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 82 |
| Kelvis Valerio R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.14 | 11.1% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .317 | 4.03 | 11.7% | 4.6% | 100 | -0.11 | 4.03 | 266 | 82 |
| Joel De La Cruz R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.28 | 10.3% | 6.7% | 2.2% | .276 | 4.47 | 14.4% | 5.8% | 120 | +0.19 | 4.28 | 205 | 82 |
| Abel Amaya R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% | .264 | 6.31 | 8.5% | 5.1% | 12 | +2.06 | 4.25 | 109 | 81 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.44 | 4.37 | 160 | 81 |
| Cullen Kafka R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.88 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 148 | 81 |
| Alex Sanabia R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.47 | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .358 | 3.56 | 11.1% | 6.2% | 161 | -0.91 | 3.51 | 378 | 80 |
| Drasen Johnson R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.44 | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.6% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 110 | 80 |
| Tyler Brashears R 2025 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.54 | 12.1% | 13.0% | 3.3% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 156 | 80 |
| Tyler Barnette R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.53 | 13.0% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .333 | 3.99 | 10.7% | -3.5% | 13 | -0.54 | 3.53 | 173 | 80 |
| Jonathan Hughes R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.59 | 12.9% | 12.5% | 1.8% | .351 | 3.81 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 146 | -0.78 | 3.50 | 219 | 79 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.31 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.01 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.30 | 3.01 | 176 | 79 |
| Michael Matuella R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.01 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 3.3% | .316 | 3.60 | 20.1% | 2.8% | 42 | -1.41 | 3.60 | 169 | 79 |
| Daniel Blair R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 14.4% | 9.1% | 1.14 | 5.05 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |