Moises Rodriguez
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.5
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 170 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2027
ERA4.17
FIP4.17
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.7%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%12.9%
IP49
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2027
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Tigers West | 9 | 0 | 12 | 67 | 9 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 20.5% | 2.4% | 5.84 | 6.27 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 13 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 12 | 15 | 1 | 9.2% | 21.1% | 1.6% | 4.22 | 5.86 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Tigers 1 | 12 | 11 | 43 | 180 | 38 | 18 | 0 | 14.4% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 1.90 | 3.47 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Lakeland Flying Tigers | 18 | 0 | 25 | 120 | 26 | 17 | 3 | 14.2% | 18.2% | 4.1% | 8.64 | 6.46 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 46 | 0 | 63 | 258 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 18.3% | 7.3% | 0.0% | 2.84 | 2.48 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 4 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 45 | 18 | 5 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | DET | — | — | 56 | 231 | 48 | 23 | 5 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 2.3% | 4.34 | 3.69 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | DET | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 47 | 18 | 5 | 22.2% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | DET | 50 | — | 50 | 210 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 22.5% | 8.7% | 2.6% | 4.14 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 47 | 18 | 6 | 22.6% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.14 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22.6% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.16 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | DET | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 45 | 18 | 6 | 22.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 4.19 | 4.21 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | DET | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 43 | 17 | 5 | 22.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.24 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | DET | 45 | — | 45 | 188 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 21.7% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | DET | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.48 | 4.53 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | DET | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 21.1% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.58 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | DET | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 32 | 15 | 5 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.69 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | DET | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 20.3% | 10.1% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 102 | 11 | 171 | 737 | 107 | 101 | 8 | 14.6% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 3.95 | 4.19 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 119 | 13 | 200 | 862 | 125 | 118 | 9 | 14.6% | 13.7% | 1.1% | 3.95 | 4.19 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Moises Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.17 | 21.7% | 8.8% | 2.6% | — | 4.12 | 22.5% | 13.8% | 149 | -0.05 | — | — | — |
| Austin Smith R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 94 |
| Stephen Jones R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 92 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 92 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .239 | 5.62 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.91 | 3.71 | 325 | 90 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.53 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.08 | 3.01 | 214 | 90 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.46 | 3.49 | 140 | 90 |
| Vince Vannelle R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .282 | 5.28 | 15.3% | 4.5% | 76 | +1.56 | 3.72 | 105 | 89 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 89 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 88 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.4% | .291 | 3.68 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | -0.06 | 3.68 | 118 | 87 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.99 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 100 | 87 |
| Brendan Beck R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.19 | 22.5% | 6.7% | 2.1% | .289 | 4.15 | 20.6% | 13.7% | 152 | +0.96 | 3.19 | 183 | 87 |
| Will Vest R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .282 | 3.66 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 124 | -0.05 | 2.53 | 421 | 87 |
| Alex Hoppe R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .371 | 4.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 128 | +0.14 | 3.89 | 176 | 87 |
| Mark Montgomery R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.13 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .254 | 2.75 | 25.3% | 16.9% | 126 | -0.38 | 2.60 | 169 | 87 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.49 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.4% | .262 | 6.13 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.64 | 3.49 | 207 | 87 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 87 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.70 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 2.7% | .232 | 5.13 | 18.0% | 7.0% | 180 | +1.43 | 3.70 | 223 | 86 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 86 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $10M | +$4M | ||