Carlos Peña

P Erie SeaWolves

Age 28 LHP 5'11" / 160 lbs AA peak 0.8 · 2027

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	27	19	120	3.46	3.19	22.1%	9.5%	—	K 16.9% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.85
2025	26	MIX2 levels	28	17	111	3.73	3.24	21.1%	5.7%	—	K 17.0% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.82
2026	27	MIX2 levels	27	23	110	4.27	3.47	26.5%	5.5%	—	K 21.9% · BB 5.8% · FIP 4.51
2027PROJ	28	MLBDET	12	12	70	4.48	4.48	18.8%	6.1%	0.3
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBDET	4	4	21	4.54	4.59	19.0%	6.6%	0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	30	MLBDET	6	6	33	4.66	4.75	19.0%	7.1%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff40Control60Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsT.J. Sikkema (age 26) · Danny Wirchansky (age 27) · Matt Tracy (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%18.8%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	15	4	49	203	71	17	2	27%	3.3	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	1.4%	2.74	3.17	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	15	4	49	203	71	17	2	27%	3.3	35.0%	8.4%	26.6%	1.0%	2.74	1.78	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	10	59	247	59	13	5	71%	4.2	17.0%	6.3%	10.7%	2.9%	3.34	4.06	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	10	59	247	59	13	5	71%	4.2	23.9%	5.3%	18.6%	2.0%	3.34	2.86	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	26	16	98	423	120	43	8	62%	3.8	20.5%	10.6%	9.9%	2.0%	4.22	3.80	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	26	16	98	423	120	43	8	62%	3.8	28.4%	10.2%	18.2%	1.9%	4.22	3.03	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	21	110	455	107	38	8	88%	4.6	18.1%	9.6%	8.5%	2.5%	3.11	4.16	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	24	21	110	455	107	38	8	88%	4.6	23.5%	8.4%	15.2%	1.8%	3.11	3.14	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	120	506	112	48	7	70%	4.4	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	1.6%	3.46	3.85	—
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	19	120	506	112	48	7	70%	4.4	16.9%	10.2%	6.7%	1.6%	3.46	3.85	—
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	19	120	506	112	48	7	70%	4.4	22.1%	9.5%	12.6%	1.4%	3.46	3.19	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	111	455	96	26	10	61%	4.0	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	2.5%	3.73	3.82	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	17	111	455	96	26	10	61%	4.0	17.0%	6.4%	10.6%	2.5%	3.73	3.82	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	17	111	455	96	26	10	61%	4.0	21.1%	5.7%	15.4%	2.2%	3.73	3.24	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	110	457	121	25	16	85%	4.1	21.9%	5.8%	16.1%	4.6%	4.27	4.51	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	110	457	121	25	16	85%	4.1	21.9%	5.8%	16.1%	4.6%	4.27	4.51	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	110	457	121	25	16	85%	4.1	26.5%	5.5%	21.0%	3.5%	4.27	3.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	DET	12	12	70	296	56	18	10	100%	5.8	18.8%	6.1%	12.7%	3.3%	4.48	4.48	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	67	284	54	19	10	100%	6.1	19.0%	6.6%	12.4%	3.4%	4.54	4.59	+0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	DET	11	11	63	267	51	19	10	100%	5.8	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.75	+0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	DET	4	4	21	89	17	6	3	100%	5.2	19.0%	6.6%	12.4%	3.4%	4.54	4.59	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	DET	6	6	33	139	26	10	5	100%	5.5	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	3.6%	4.66	4.75	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	9	54	226	43	16	8	100%	6.0	19.0%	6.9%	12.1%	3.5%	4.61	4.31	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	161	60	30	100%	6.0	19.0%	6.9%	12.1%	3.5%	4.61	4.31	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		161	110	657	2746	523	232	70	68%	4.1	19.0%	8.5%	10.6%	2.6%	3.63	3.97	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	33	200	836	159	71	21	68%	4.1	19.0%	8.5%	10.6%	2.6%	3.63	3.97	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Peña (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	18.8%	6.1%	3.3%	—	4.67	19.0%	12.1%	131	+0.19	—	—	—
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	81
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	80
Matt Tracy L 2017 · 4.82 FIP	28	SP-	4.82	16.1%	9.4%	3.5%	.325	3.24	13.9%	3.5%	49	-1.58	3.24	298	77
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	77
Dylan Dodd L 2024 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP-	4.71	17.5%	6.0%	4.2%	.338	3.97	26.5%	21.7%	123	-0.74	3.31	475	75
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	73
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	73
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	72
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	71
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	70
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	69
Jason Wheeler L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	16.1%	5.8%	3.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	401	69
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	69
Duane Below L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	29	SW	3.63	12.5%	3.7%	2.0%	.266	4.57	14.7%	9.6%	140	+0.94	3.63	265	68
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	67
Daniel Camarena L 2021 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	14.9%	8.3%	2.9%	.273	5.73	13.7%	5.9%	121	+1.26	3.76	674	67
Houston Harding L 2024 · 4.54 FIP	26	SP-	4.54	16.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.268	5.19	12.0%	0.5%	61	+0.65	3.41	239	66
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	66
Nick Additon L 2016 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP-	4.47	12.9%	6.8%	2.9%	.303	3.13	19.3%	10.2%	26	-1.34	3.13	217	66
Aaron Rozek L 2024 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP-	3.68	16.2%	5.8%	2.2%	.304	4.68	16.9%	9.0%	234	+1.00	3.68	579	66

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	67	18.9%	6.6%	1.33	4.56
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Rich Monteleone ('87-'96, 2 WAR*)	1.8	71	18.7%*	7.5%*	1.39*	4.03*
Minnie Rojas ('66-'68, 1 WAR*)	1.3	87	17.1%*	6.5%*	1.35*	4.07*
Tim Crews ('87-'92, 3 WAR*)	2.1	71	20.8%*	6.2%*	1.09*	4.11*