Tommy Sommer prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Tommy Sommer P Birmingham Barons

Age 27 LHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117125vR 133

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%19.8%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%6.5%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	ROK MLE	ACL White Sox	8	6	25	94	33	7	3	75%	3.1	23.9%	9.3%	14.6%	4.4%	2.16	4.65	—
2021	22	ROK RAW	ACL White Sox	8	6	25	94	33	7	3	75%	3.1	35.1%	7.4%	27.7%	3.2%	2.16	2.86	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	123	489	129	41	12	96%	5.1	19.8%	9.8%	10.0%	2.9%	2.71	4.28	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	123	489	129	41	12	96%	5.1	26.4%	8.4%	18.0%	2.5%	2.71	3.27	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	82	364	76	54	18	86%	3.9	16.7%	16.4%	0.3%	5.9%	5.49	6.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	82	364	76	54	18	86%	3.9	16.7%	16.4%	0.3%	5.9%	5.49	6.99	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	82	364	76	54	18	86%	3.9	20.9%	14.8%	6.0%	4.9%	5.49	6.08	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.8%	13.2%	6.5%	3.2%	5.25	5.25	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	56	235	47	31	8	100%	6.2	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	3.3%	5.21	5.24	-0.2
2028	29	MLB MLE	CWS	9	9	53	225	45	29	8	100%	5.9	20.0%	12.9%	7.1%	3.4%	5.24	5.31	-0.2
2027	28	MLB CTX	CWS	4	4	21	89	18	12	3	100%	5.2	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	3.3%	5.21	5.24	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	CWS	5	5	30	127	25	16	4	100%	6.0	20.0%	12.9%	7.1%	3.4%	5.24	5.31	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	51	213	43	28	7	100%	6.3	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	3.4%	5.23	4.90	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	170	111	28	100%	6.0	20.0%	13.0%	7.0%	3.4%	5.23	4.90	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		53	47	230	947	180	117	40	89%	4.3	19.0%	12.3%	6.7%	4.2%	3.64	5.36	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	41	200	823	156	101	35	89%	4.3	19.0%	12.3%	6.7%	4.2%	3.64	5.36	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tommy Sommer (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	19.8%	13.2%	3.2%	—	5.27	20.0%	7.0%	109	+0.02	—	—	—
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.54	14.3%	5.8%	242	-0.58	2.95	313	79
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	79
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	78
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	77
Matt Lujan L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	27	SP	5.05	18.5%	11.3%	3.8%	.319	4.69	14.3%	7.9%	70	-0.36	4.06	227	76
Ben Holmes L 2019 · 5.57 FIP	27	SP	5.57	19.7%	11.1%	5.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	451	75
Luis Ysla L 2019 · 5.78 FIP	27	SP-	5.78	18.0%	14.4%	4.3%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	378	74
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	73
David Purcey L 2009 · 4.75 FIP	27	SP	4.75	17.5%	13.0%	2.7%	.322	4.13	18.2%	5.4%	68	-0.62	3.60	206	73
Jack Snodgrass L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	27	SP-	4.66	12.6%	10.7%	2.3%	.278	5.01	15.7%	5.6%	45	+0.35	4.66	118	72
Alex Troop L 2023 · 5.03 FIP	27	SP-	5.03	17.8%	10.9%	3.7%	.275	5.10	17.3%	10.5%	43	+0.07	2.93	379	71
Luis Lugo L 2021 · 5.21 FIP	27	SP-	5.21	19.5%	13.2%	3.8%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	622	70
Orlando Lara L 2015 · 4.29 FIP	30	SP	4.29	15.2%	10.3%	2.1%	.348	4.08	14.2%	7.2%	230	-0.21	3.85	426	70
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	69
Taylor Varnell L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	26	SP	4.48	20.1%	10.3%	3.2%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.89	248	69
Alejandro Astorga L 2015 · 4.35 FIP	28	SP	4.35	11.5%	10.2%	1.7%	.283	3.87	14.7%	6.1%	220	-0.48	3.72	311	68
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	27	SP	4.56	15.4%	12.3%	2.2%	.363	3.60	21.2%	13.2%	140	-0.96	3.46	440	68
Jared Koenig L 2021 · 5.11 FIP	27	SP	5.11	16.0%	9.4%	4.0%	.270	3.78	20.1%	12.4%	267	-1.33	2.79	475	68
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	68
Darin Gorski L 2015 · 4.93 FIP	27	SP	4.93	15.2%	11.4%	3.0%	.323	4.50	15.0%	5.2%	69	-0.43	4.50	206	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	19.9%	13.1%	1.28	5.23
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12