Jordan Nwogu

LF Knoxville Smokies

Age 28 R/R 6'2" / 230 lbs AA HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	26	AACHC	368	.280/.357/.348	3	23	68	—	.243/.308/.303
2026	27	AAACHC	115	.284/.348/.451	3	3	76	—	.238/.286/.362
2026	27	AACHC	151	.268/.400/.341	1	9	74	—	.231/.333/.300
2027PROJ2% MLB	28	MLBCHC	5	.218/.285/.300	0	0	65	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	29	MLBCHC	65	.217/.284/.299	1	1	65	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Speed73

K%53

Max EV50

Z-Con%50

BB%32

Chase%31

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsAndy Simunic (age 28) · Shannon Wilkerson (age 28) · Rafael Bautista (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .285 / .300

PA5

HR0

K%20

BB%6

BABIP294

ISO84

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	373	323	80	12	2	10	42	105	6	16	4	248	345	390	735	142	335	28	11	332	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	378	325	86	17	7	15	37	90	12	19	6	265	361	498	859	234	317	24	10	374	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	363	324	63	7	1	16	27	137	9	15	7	194	275	370	645	176	272	38	7	288	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	45	41	7	3	1	1	4	12	0	4	0	171	244	366	610	195	214	27	9	270	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+	South Bend Cubs	—	323	283	68	15	1	6	31	72	4	19	7	240	324	364	688	124	295	22	10	308	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	INTL	Canberra Cavalry	—	81	75	17	5	0	4	4	14	1	5	0	227	275	453	728	227	224	17	5	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	368	325	91	9	2	3	26	92	13	23	7	280	357	348	705	68	376	25	7	322	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	115	102	29	6	1	3	10	26	0	3	1	284	348	451	799	167	342	23	9	346	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA	Knoxville Smokies	—	151	123	33	4	1	1	21	27	6	9	0	268	400	341	741	73	333	18	14	347	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	373	336	63	9	2	7	29	148	6	16	4	188	264	289	553	101	302	40	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	378	336	70	13	5	12	26	114	12	19	6	208	289	384	673	176	265	30	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	363	334	51	6	1	11	17	166	9	15	7	153	214	275	489	123	238	46	5	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	45	42	6	2	1	1	3	15	0	4	0	143	200	310	510	167	188	33	7	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	323	293	55	11	1	5	21	91	4	19	7	188	252	283	535	96	240	28	7	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	368	333	81	9	1	3	18	113	13	23	7	243	308	303	611	60	342	31	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	115	105	25	5	1	2	7	31	0	3	1	238	286	362	648	124	293	27	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	151	130	30	4	1	1	14	33	6	9	0	231	333	300	633	69	285	22	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	373	336	63	9	2	7	29	148	6	16	4	188	264	289	553	101	308	40	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	373	323	80	12	2	10	42	105	6	16	4	248	345	390	735	142	335	28	11	332	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	378	336	70	13	5	12	26	114	12	19	6	208	289	384	673	176	271	30	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	South Bend Cubs	—	378	325	86	17	7	15	37	90	12	19	6	265	361	498	859	234	317	24	10	374	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	363	334	51	6	1	11	17	166	9	15	7	153	214	275	489	123	252	46	5	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA RAW	Tennessee Smokies	—	363	324	63	7	1	16	27	137	9	15	7	194	275	370	645	176	272	38	7	288	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	449	409	74	16	2	7	29	129	5	28	7	181	244	281	525	100	240	29	6	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	449	399	92	23	2	11	39	98	5	28	7	231	307	381	688	150	274	22	9	306	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	368	333	81	9	1	3	18	113	13	23	7	243	308	303	611	60	353	31	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	—	368	325	91	9	2	3	26	92	13	23	7	280	357	348	705	68	376	25	7	322	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	266	235	54	8	2	3	21	64	6	12	1	230	309	319	628	89	297	24	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	266	225	62	10	2	4	31	53	6	12	1	276	378	391	769	116	337	20	12	346	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	373	335	63	9	2	7	29	148	6	16	4	188	264	290	554	101	302	40	8	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	South Bend Cubs	—	378	337	70	13	5	12	26	114	12	19	6	208	289	383	672	175	265	30	7	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	363	334	51	6	1	11	17	166	9	15	7	153	214	275	489	123	238	46	5	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	449	412	74	16	2	7	29	129	5	28	7	180	244	279	523	100	234	29	6	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	368	334	81	9	1	3	18	113	13	23	7	243	308	302	610	60	342	31	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	266	237	54	8	2	3	21	64	6	12	1	228	309	316	626	89	288	24	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	449	412	74	16	2	7	29	129	5	28	7	180	244	279	523	100	234	29	6	234	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	—	368	334	81	9	1	3	18	113	13	23	7	243	308	302	610	60	342	31	5	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	266	237	54	8	2	3	21	64	6	12	1	228	309	316	626	89	288	24	8	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CHC	2%	316	286	62	10	2	3	20	84	7	8	2	216	283	296	579	80	291	27	6	265	65	-13	+1	+0	-3	+7	-0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	CHC	2%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	218	285	300	584	81	294	20	0	267	65	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	CHC	23%	287	260	56	9	1	3	19	77	6	6	1	215	282	295	577	80	289	27	7	264	65	-12	+1	-1	-3	+6	-1.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CHC	23%	65	60	13	2	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	217	284	299	582	82	292	26	6	266	65	-3	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	65	60	13	2	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	217	277	300	577	83	286	26	6	266	59	-3	+0	-0	-1	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	130	20	0	10	40	170	10	10	0	217	277	300	577	83	286	26	6	266	59	-27	+2	-3	-7	+14	-2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	2734	2470	498	78	15	49	175	878	62	126	34	202	272	305	576	103	287	32	6	256	59	-22	+2	-1	-6	+12	-1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	120	19	4	12	42	209	15	30	8	204	275	312	587	107	291	32	6	256	59	-27	+2	-2	-7	+14	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jordan Nwogu (OGILVIE)	28	50	30	60	35	214/281/293	79	291	3	7	27%	6%	65	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andy Simunic 2014 · AAA	28	51→56	36→30	52→50	43	239/287/295	56	308	4	16	23%	6%	66	-1.1	231/282/314	83	309	7	13	26%	6%	69	-0.9	228/272/285	57	313	4	4	27%	6%	55	-0.4
✕Shannon Wilkerson 2016 · AAA	28	50	37→40	54→55	44	235/278/314	79	293	3	16	21%	5%	67	-1.1	225/268/313	88	272	6	10	19%	5%	63	-1.3	209/246/277	67	247	3	2	16%	4%	44	-1.0
✕Rafael Bautista 2021 · AAA	28	45→55	40	53→60	44	219/272/307	88	280	7	16	24%	6%	64	-1.3	215/264/314	99	271	10	9	24%	5%	63	-1.4	200/243/276	76	248	8	6	23%	3%	43	-1.2
✕Kenny Kelly 2007 · AAA	28	49→54	37→40	54→55	45	232/287/306	74	303	4	23	24%	7%	69	-0.9	232/288/340	108	301	12	19	26%	7%	78	-0.3	230/286/340	111	290	16	22	26%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Kenny Wilson 2018 · AAA	28	46→51	38→40	53→60	43	218/280/297	80	299	5	25	28%	7%	65	-1.2	213/279/320	107	322	9	20	34%	7%	70	-0.8	200/271/319	119	315	9	22	37%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Jemel Spearman 2009 · AAA	28	47→51	40	55→50	46	224/274/323	99	270	7	16	20%	6%	68	-1.0	225/276/328	103	279	9	14	22%	6%	70	-0.8	232/276/323	91	284	8	12	20%	5%	67	-0.3
✕Alan Arredondo 2006 · AAA	28	49	41→30	51→60	39	235/273/333	98	311	8	21	27%	5%	70	-0.8	245/287/320	75	310	4	15	21%	5%	72	-0.7	257/296/319	63	321	2	16	20%	5%	71	-0.2
✕Jamal Strong 2007 · MLB	28	50→55	37→30	56→55	47	236/297/308	72	295	4	22	20%	7%	74	-0.6	232/308/302	70	283	4	18	18%	8%	77	-0.3	232/324/270	37	280	0	19	15%	10%	73	-0.4
✕Joel Booker 2021 · AAA	27	45→49	39→40	51→55	39	216/270/300	84	298	7	19	29%	5%	62	-1.4	200/238/299	99	316	10	21	38%	4%	49	-2.4	160/180/239	79	266	9	33	43%	1%	11	-1.8
✕Mickey McDonald 2022 · AAA	27	49→53	36→30	57→50	44	226/294/297	71	316	3	17	28%	7%	70	-0.8	238/309/325	87	324	6	16	26%	8%	82	+0.0	245/322/314	69	336	4	16	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Derrik Gibson 2018 · AAA	28	46→56	38→40	55	45	217/274/301	84	282	4	12	24%	6%	63	-1.4	217/274/339	122	288	9	12	26%	7%	72	-0.7	212/271/383	171	274	11	7	26%	8%	79	-0.0
✕Adam Law 2018 · AA	28	51→48	37→40	48→55	43	240/289/316	76	310	5	15	23%	6%	72	-0.7	218/267/305	87	292	6	10	26%	5%	62	-1.4	211/259/287	76	282	3	8	25%	4%	53	-1.5
✕Hunter Jones 2019 · AAA	27	49→57	40	53→55	44	233/287/330	98	293	7	14	22%	6%	75	-0.5	213/269/308	95	291	8	12	28%	6%	63	-1.3	133/191/188	55	195	7	10	34%	5%	6	-1.6
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2023 · AAA	28	42→49	42→45	53→60	39	203/270/301	98	286	9	22	31%	6%	63	-1.3	185/279/297	112	259	12	28	31%	8%	67	-1.1	158/268/267	109	219	12	34	32%	10%	54	-1.4
✕Matthew Batten 2023 · MLB	28	48→54	41→40	56→55	46	228/294/319	91	309	9	23	28%	8%	75	-0.5	205/272/305	100	275	10	22	27%	8%	64	-1.3	187/252/281	95	249	10	22	28%	7%	50	-1.9
✕Ian Dawkins 2022 · AA	27	44→49	40	53→50	38	216/256/306	90	283	8	15	27%	4%	57	-1.8	212/259/318	106	284	10	14	28%	5%	62	-1.4	199/246/301	101	262	9	16	27%	5%	49	-1.0
✕Ian Parmley 2018 · AAA	28	50	36→30	52→50	39	232/273/298	66	323	3	17	28%	5%	61	-1.5	228/268/314	86	318	6	14	29%	5%	63	-1.3	233/252/294	61	333	0	8	29%	2%	49	-0.5
✕Alfredo Lopez 2017 · AAA	27	50	37→30	52→50	46	236/286/309	73	285	4	18	18%	6%	70	-0.9	243/293/324	81	290	5	19	17%	6%	76	-0.4	250/285/294	44	292	2	17	15%	5%	60	-0.6
✕Evan Mendoza 2023 · AAA	27	45→52	36→30	50	47	214/274/275	62	272	4	18	22%	7%	57	-1.8	219/276/309	90	274	9	17	22%	7%	66	-1.1	199/239/248	49	247	8	21	22%	5%	36	-0.6
✕Pedro Florimón 2015 · MLB	28	43→53	41→45	54→55	43	212/265/311	100	285	8	19	28%	6%	62	-1.4	212/264/318	106	304	8	18	31%	6%	63	-1.3	217/272/330	113	320	10	11	33%	6%	68	-0.5