Joey Estes
P
Las Vegas Aviators
+0.0
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
ERA5.33
FIP5.26
xFIP7.46
SIERA6.58
K%17.8%
BB%6.8%
K-BB%11.1%
IP77
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL6060
CMD4040
K†3040
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p1017.7%
K%
p1010.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.364
CH (10%)
SI (8%)
FB-3.5 (60%)
SL-3.7 (31%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Braves | 5 | 5 | 10 | 46 | 8 | 7 | 0 | — | — | — | 8.10 | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 20 | 20 | 99 | 396 | 127 | 29 | 7 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 1.9% | 2.91 | 3.23 | +2.3 |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 20 | 20 | 91 | 387 | 92 | 30 | 17 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 4.55 | 5.85 | -0.7 |
| 2023 | 21 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 29 | 25 | 147 | 621 | 138 | 44 | 28 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.98 | 5.28 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 22 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 31 | 30 | 156 | 668 | 118 | 36 | 30 | 17.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.19 | 4.93 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 23 | MLB | Athletics | 20 | 17 | 91 | 394 | 73 | 26 | 21 | 16.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.03 | 5.42 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 3 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 4.9% | 17.5% | 4.1% | 9.58 | 7.14 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 28 | — | 28 | 120 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 15.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 5.52 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 39 | 174 | 21 | 17 | 7 | 12.1% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 6.60 | 5.91 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 67 | 283 | 45 | 19 | 12 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.43 | 5.36 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 44 | 18 | 11 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.36 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 58 | — | 58 | 243 | 40 | 17 | 11 | 16.6% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 5.34 | 5.32 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 16.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.34 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 32 | 14 | 9 | 16.0% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 5.39 | 5.42 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 28 | 13 | 8 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 5.47 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 24 | 12 | 7 | 14.9% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 5.56 | 5.62 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 35 | — | 35 | 146 | 21 | 11 | 7 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 5.67 | 5.74 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 13.6% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 5.79 | 5.86 | -0.3 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 27 | — | 27 | 114 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 12.9% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 5.92 | 6.00 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 128 | 120 | 604 | 2566 | 472 | 199 | 115 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.68 | 4.99 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 40 | 200 | 849 | 156 | 66 | 38 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.68 | 4.99 | +0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Estes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.47 | 15.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% | — | 5.33 | 16.3% | 9.5% | 187 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Octavio Acosta R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.70 | 15.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | .337 | 4.35 | 16.3% | 4.8% | 184 | -0.35 | 3.87 | 333 | 76 |
| Jared Kollar R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.13 | 16.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | .359 | 4.47 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 332 | -0.66 | 3.86 | 345 | 75 |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .338 | 3.76 | 22.4% | 14.5% | 196 | -0.79 | 3.13 | 319 | 75 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.37 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.86 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.49 | 4.37 | 412 | 75 |
| Robbie Baker R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.15 | 14.4% | 6.9% | 4.4% | .250 | 3.63 | 19.7% | 12.1% | 77 | -1.52 | 3.29 | 181 | 74 |
| Tim Peterson R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.84 | 19.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .296 | 3.10 | 25.0% | 19.4% | 184 | -1.74 | 2.16 | 307 | 74 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.78 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.40 | 3.84 | 299 | 74 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.4% | .342 | 4.09 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.78 | 2.67 | 102 | 73 |
| Jackson Rees R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.47 | 16.1% | 9.0% | 2.9% | .354 | 1.89 | 28.2% | 20.8% | 62 | -2.58 | 1.89 | 103 | 73 |
| Wilmer Rios R 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.90 | 16.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | .265 | 5.25 | 16.2% | 12.3% | 80 | +0.35 | 2.80 | 156 | 72 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 72 |
| Roman Mendez R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | .275 | 4.54 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.16 | 4.12 | 230 | 72 |
| Ethan Routzahn R 2026 · 5.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.89 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 4.8% | .342 | 4.38 | 15.3% | 6.1% | 180 | -1.51 | 3.56 | 220 | 72 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.56 | 18.0% | 8.7% | 5.2% | .265 | 4.96 | 15.0% | 2.4% | 41 | -0.60 | 4.55 | 119 | 72 |
| Joel Cesar R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.31 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 4.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 127 | 71 |
| Stephen Perakslis R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.53 | 14.6% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .254 | 3.99 | 16.9% | 9.9% | 190 | -0.54 | 3.07 | 211 | 71 |
| Jack Little R 2025 · 5.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.42 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 4.8% | .316 | 4.48 | 20.9% | 11.2% | 76 | -0.94 | 3.82 | 187 | 71 |
| Davison Palermo R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.28 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.75 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 68 | -0.53 | 4.30 | 151 | 71 |
| Keagan Gillies R 2026 · 5.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.71 | 17.2% | 11.3% | 4.8% | .370 | 3.56 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 142 | -2.15 | 2.94 | 157 | 71 |
| Luis De La O R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.37 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.65 | 3.22 | 145 | 71 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.