Joey Estes — OGILVIE

Joey Estes P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA4.92

FIP5.11

K%14.5%

BB%6.5%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL6060

CMD4040

K†3040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p1017.7%

p1010.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.364

CH (10%)

SI (8%)

FB-3.5 (60%)

SL-3.7 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	5	5	10	46	8	7	0	100%	2.0	17.4%	15.2%	2.2%	0.0%	8.10	3.56	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	5	5	10	46	8	7	0	100%	2.0	17.4%	15.2%	2.2%	0.0%	8.10	3.60	—
2021	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	20	20	99	396	127	29	7	100%	5.0	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	1.9%	2.91	3.25	—
2021	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	20	20	99	396	127	29	7	100%	5.0	32.1%	7.3%	24.7%	1.8%	2.91	2.33	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	20	20	91	387	92	30	17	100%	4.5	18.3%	8.9%	9.4%	5.8%	4.55	5.88	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	20	20	91	387	92	30	17	100%	4.5	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	4.4%	4.55	4.50	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	25	147	621	138	44	28	86%	5.1	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	5.0%	3.98	5.26	-0.6
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	25	147	621	138	44	28	86%	5.1	18.6%	7.8%	10.8%	5.0%	3.98	5.26	-0.6
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	25	147	621	138	44	28	86%	5.1	22.2%	7.1%	15.1%	4.5%	3.98	4.60	+0.5
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.0%	5.2%	11.8%	4.9%	5.19	5.04	-0.2
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.0%	5.2%	11.8%	4.9%	5.19	5.04	-0.2
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	4.5%	5.19	4.78	+0.2
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	15.6%	6.1%	9.5%	5.1%	6.03	5.32	-0.4
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	15.6%	6.1%	9.5%	5.1%	6.03	5.32	-0.4
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	18.5%	6.6%	11.9%	5.3%	6.03	5.35	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	29	156	679	110	35	35	91%	4.9	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	5.2%	5.77	5.28	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Athletics	21	20	94	426	70	46	24	95%	4.5	13.8%	10.1%	3.7%	5.6%	7.21	6.30	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Athletics	21	20	94	426	70	46	24	95%	4.5	13.8%	10.1%	3.7%	5.6%	7.21	6.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	OAK	19	19	86	392	65	44	20	100%	4.5	16.6%	11.2%	5.4%	5.1%	6.88	5.92	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	OAK	2	1	7	34	5	2	4	50%	3.6	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	11.8%	11.05	9.06	—
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	OAK	2	1	7	34	5	2	4	50%	3.6	14.7%	5.9%	8.8%	11.8%	11.05	9.06	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	OAK	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	14.5%	6.5%	8.0%	4.4%	4.92	5.11	-0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	OAK	1	1	6	25	4	2	1	100%	6.0	14.5%	6.5%	8.0%	4.4%	4.92	5.11	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	100	451	74	48	25	—	—	16.3%	10.6%	5.8%	5.6%	7.07	6.23	-1.4
FULL	24	MLB A+C	OAK	—	—	13	56	74	48	25	—	—	130.9%	84.7%	46.2%	44.6%	52.84	27.25	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	154	651	102	40	31	100%	5.9	15.6%	6.1%	9.6%	4.8%	5.54	5.57	-1.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	161	681	111	41	33	100%	6.0	16.3%	6.0%	10.2%	4.8%	5.52	5.51	-1.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	163	687	112	42	33	100%	6.0	16.2%	6.1%	10.1%	4.9%	5.54	5.55	-1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	27	27	163	687	111	43	34	100%	6.0	16.1%	6.3%	9.9%	5.0%	5.60	5.64	-1.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	26	26	156	657	102	43	34	100%	6.0	15.5%	6.5%	9.1%	5.1%	5.72	5.80	-1.5
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	24	24	146	617	92	42	33	100%	6.1	14.8%	6.8%	8.1%	5.3%	5.89	6.01	-1.8
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	25	25	146	616	96	37	30	100%	5.8	15.6%	6.1%	9.6%	4.8%	5.54	5.57	-1.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	153	646	105	39	31	100%	5.9	16.3%	6.0%	10.2%	4.8%	5.52	5.51	-1.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	155	654	106	40	32	100%	6.0	16.2%	6.1%	10.1%	4.9%	5.54	5.55	-1.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	26	26	155	654	106	41	33	100%	6.0	16.1%	6.3%	9.9%	5.0%	5.60	5.64	-1.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	25	25	148	625	97	41	32	100%	5.9	15.5%	6.5%	9.1%	5.1%	5.72	5.80	-1.5
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	23	23	139	587	87	40	31	100%	6.0	14.8%	6.8%	8.1%	5.3%	5.89	6.01	-1.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	180	1058	4486	711	274	224	98%	5.8	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	5.0%	5.65	5.28	-4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	34	200	848	134	52	42	98%	5.8	15.8%	6.1%	9.7%	5.0%	5.65	5.28	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		146	137	688	2938	522	226	138	94%	4.7	17.8%	7.7%	10.1%	4.7%	4.95	5.15	-8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	854	152	66	40	94%	4.7	17.8%	7.7%	10.1%	4.7%	4.95	5.15	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Estes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.42	14.7%	6.2%	4.4%	—	5.54	16.1%	10.0%	478	+0.12	—	—	—
Brandon Young R 2023 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	17.9%	6.3%	3.8%	.338	3.90	20.6%	13.1%	353	-0.59	3.08	476	72
Octavio Acosta R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP	4.73	15.5%	5.6%	4.0%	.337	4.39	16.3%	4.8%	184	-0.34	3.88	333	71
Gunnar Hoglund R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	23	SP	6.54	10.4%	6.1%	6.5%	.322	4.82	18.6%	11.4%	193	-1.72	4.65	236	70
Ross Stripling R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.281	3.42	23.1%	18.2%	313	-0.90	3.05	930	69
Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang R 2022 · 5.82 FIP	21	SP	5.82	17.1%	5.7%	6.3%	.296	3.99	19.1%	13.7%	232	-1.83	3.07	356	69
Spencer Jones R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	24	SP	5.49	14.9%	8.9%	4.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	171	68
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	68
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	68
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	67
Matthew DeRosier R 2018 · 5.67 FIP	24	SP-	5.67	15.1%	9.1%	4.9%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	200	66
Jon Moscot R 2016 · 6.60 FIP	24	SP	6.60	11.5%	7.9%	6.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.60	137	66
Peyton Remy R 2021 · 5.42 FIP	24	SP	5.42	16.2%	9.0%	4.7%	.292	5.51	21.2%	9.3%	94	+0.09	3.57	286	65
Tommy Bergjans R 2017 · 5.86 FIP	24	SP	5.86	14.3%	6.8%	5.7%	.321	3.99	12.0%	6.4%	81	-1.87	3.39	322	65
Colin Welmon R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	24	SP	5.33	12.0%	7.0%	4.3%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	5.33	142	64
Max Beatty R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	25	SP	4.31	11.8%	3.7%	3.2%	.264	3.88	13.2%	6.8%	46	-0.43	3.88	117	64
Brian Van Belle R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP	4.86	19.1%	4.5%	5.1%	.332	5.14	18.0%	11.8%	372	+0.28	3.13	556	64
Matt Magill R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP	4.98	16.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.435	4.86	18.6%	8.4%	195	-0.12	3.40	259	64
Spencer Howard R 2020 · 5.22 FIP	24	SP	5.22	20.4%	8.8%	5.0%	.324	4.54	24.1%	14.2%	191	-0.68	2.33	484	64
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	63
Landon Marceaux R 2023 · 4.81 FIP	23	SP	4.81	13.3%	8.0%	3.3%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	146	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	145	15.7%	6.3%	1.91	5.60
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Wade LeBlanc ('21)	2.4	81	18.0%	6.0%	1.67	4.61
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Sam Gaviglio ('19)	1.5	98	19.3%	6.9%	1.69	4.84