Joey Estes
P
Las Vegas Aviators
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2028
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140130vR 121
ERA5.17
FIP5.36
K%15.0%
BB%6.6%
K-BB%8.3%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p1017.7%
K%
p1010.9%
xwOBA vs
p100.364
CH (10%)
SI (8%)
FB-3.5 (60%)
SL-3.7 (31%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Braves | 5 | 5 | 10 | 46 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 17.4% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 3.56 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Braves | 5 | 5 | 10 | 46 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 17.4% | 15.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 8.10 | 3.60 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 20 | 20 | 99 | 396 | 127 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.7% | 8.6% | 15.1% | 1.7% | 2.91 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 20 | 20 | 99 | 396 | 127 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 5.0 | 32.1% | 7.3% | 24.7% | 1.8% | 2.91 | 2.33 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 20 | 20 | 91 | 387 | 92 | 30 | 17 | 100% | 4.5 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 4.55 | 6.08 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 20 | 20 | 91 | 387 | 92 | 30 | 17 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.8% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 4.4% | 4.55 | 4.50 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 25 | 147 | 621 | 138 | 44 | 28 | 86% | 5.1 | 18.9% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 3.98 | 5.36 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 25 | 147 | 621 | 138 | 44 | 28 | 86% | 5.1 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 15.1% | 4.5% | 3.98 | 4.60 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 156 | 668 | 118 | 36 | 30 | 97% | 5.0 | 17.2% | 5.5% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 5.19 | 4.95 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 30 | 156 | 668 | 118 | 36 | 30 | 97% | 5.0 | 17.7% | 5.4% | 12.3% | 4.5% | 5.19 | 4.78 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 91 | 394 | 73 | 26 | 21 | 85% | 4.5 | 16.5% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 6.03 | 5.07 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 17 | 91 | 394 | 73 | 26 | 21 | 85% | 4.5 | 18.5% | 6.6% | 11.9% | 5.3% | 6.03 | 5.35 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Athletics | 18 | 18 | 86 | 388 | 66 | 43 | 20 | 100% | 4.8 | 14.7% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 6.67 | 6.46 | -1.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 8 | 8 | 44 | 184 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.17 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | OAK | 8 | 8 | 44 | 186 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 100% | 5.5 | 15.0% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 5.17 | 5.36 | -0.4 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 130 | 572 | 94 | 55 | 28 | — | — | 16.4% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 6.17 | 6.09 | -1.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 48 | 202 | 94 | 55 | 28 | — | — | 46.3% | 27.3% | 19.0% | 13.7% | 16.73 | 10.17 | -3.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 48 | 20 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 5.22 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 72 | 304 | 50 | 20 | 13 | 100% | 6.0 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 5.21 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 71 | 300 | 49 | 20 | 13 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 5.23 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 46 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.9% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 4.2% | 5.22 | 5.25 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 47 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 5.21 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 47 | 19 | 12 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.5% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 5.23 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 74 | 72 | 401 | 1710 | 277 | 102 | 76 | 97% | 5.4 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 5.36 | 4.93 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 853 | 138 | 51 | 38 | 97% | 5.4 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 5.36 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 143 | 135 | 680 | 2900 | 527 | 236 | 134 | 94% | 4.8 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 4.85 | 5.13 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 40 | 200 | 853 | 155 | 69 | 39 | 94% | 4.8 | 18.2% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 4.6% | 4.85 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joey Estes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.36 | 15.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | — | 5.23 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 215 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Young R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.18 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .338 | 3.72 | 21.6% | 13.6% | 297 | -0.46 | 3.11 | 420 | 72 |
| Ross Stripling R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.26 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 2.9% | .281 | 3.58 | 23.1% | 18.2% | 313 | -0.68 | 3.05 | 930 | 72 |
| Octavio Acosta R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.37 | 15.5% | 5.6% | 3.4% | .337 | 4.27 | 16.3% | 4.8% | 184 | -0.10 | 3.80 | 333 | 71 |
| Derek Gordon R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.90 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .322 | 4.72 | 19.9% | 10.6% | 76 | -0.18 | 4.72 | 146 | 69 |
| Spencer Jones R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.45 | 14.9% | 8.9% | 4.5% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 171 | 69 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 68 |
| Matt Magill R 2027 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.96 | 16.6% | 12.2% | 3.1% | .435 | 4.87 | 18.6% | 8.4% | 195 | -0.09 | 3.45 | 259 | 66 |
| Matthew DeRosier R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 15.1% | 9.1% | 4.6% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 200 | 66 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.72 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 4.0% | .307 | 6.57 | 17.9% | 5.9% | 61 | +1.85 | 4.72 | 200 | 66 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 66 |
| Ryan Williams R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.31 | 14.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | .285 | 4.89 | 13.7% | 7.1% | 51 | +0.58 | 2.59 | 237 | 66 |
| Peyton Stumbo R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.49 | 14.9% | 7.9% | 4.8% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 235 | 66 |
| Ryan Johnson R 2025 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.81 | 20.1% | 7.2% | 4.5% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 126 | 66 |
| Aiden Butler R 2024 · 5.66 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.66 | 14.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.66 | 117 | 66 |
| Peyton Remy R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.45 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .292 | 5.48 | 21.2% | 9.3% | 94 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 286 | 66 |
| Austin Gordon R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.46 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 4.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 159 | 66 |
| Max Beatty R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.32 | 11.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | .264 | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.8% | 46 | -0.63 | 3.69 | 117 | 65 |
| Parker Smith R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.22 | 132 | 65 |
| Tommy Bergjans R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.38 | 14.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | .321 | 3.93 | 12.0% | 6.4% | 81 | -1.45 | 3.49 | 322 | 65 |
| Alex Royalty R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.74 | 17.7% | 9.1% | 3.6% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 151 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 66 | 16.1% | 6.5% | 1.62 | 5.21 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Paolo Espino ('22) | 3 | 82 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 1.82 | 4.70 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |