Joey Estes

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	31	30	156	5.19	4.78	17.7%	5.4%	1.1	K 17.1% · BB 5.2% · FIP 5.03
2025	23	MIX2 levels	20	17	91	6.03	5.35	18.5%	6.6%	0.0	K 16.1% · BB 6.1% · FIP 5.28
2026	24	MIX2 levels	22	21	99	6.84	6.26	16.3%	10.8%	-0.9	K 14.1% · BB 10.1% · FIP 6.14
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	12	12	71	5.20	5.52	15.7%	7.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBOAK	12	12	75	5.31	5.39	17.2%	7.5%	0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBOAK	12	12	70	5.38	5.43	17.2%	7.6%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsJason Grilli (age 24) · Hiram Burgos (age 25) · Cha Seung Baek (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.20

FIP5.52

K%15.7%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP71

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p1017.7%

p1010.9%

xwOBA vs

p100.364

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	5	5	10	46	8	7	0	100%	2.0	17.4%	15.2%	2.2%	0.0%	8.10	3.56	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	5	5	10	46	8	7	0	100%	2.0	17.4%	15.2%	2.2%	0.0%	8.10	3.60	—
2021	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	20	20	99	396	127	29	7	100%	5.0	23.7%	8.6%	15.1%	1.9%	2.91	3.25	—
2021	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	20	20	99	396	127	29	7	100%	5.0	32.1%	7.3%	24.7%	1.8%	2.91	2.33	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	20	20	91	387	92	30	17	100%	4.5	18.3%	8.9%	9.4%	5.8%	4.55	5.88	—
2022	20	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	20	20	91	387	92	30	17	100%	4.5	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	4.4%	4.55	4.50	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	25	147	621	138	44	28	86%	5.1	18.8%	7.8%	10.9%	5.0%	3.98	5.24	+0.3
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	25	147	621	138	44	28	86%	5.1	22.2%	7.1%	15.1%	4.5%	3.98	4.60	+1.4
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.1%	5.2%	11.9%	4.9%	5.19	5.03	+0.7
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.1%	5.2%	11.9%	4.9%	5.19	5.03	+0.7
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	30	156	668	118	36	30	97%	5.0	17.7%	5.4%	12.3%	4.5%	5.19	4.78	+1.1
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	16.1%	6.1%	10.1%	5.1%	6.03	5.28	+0.1
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	16.1%	6.1%	10.1%	5.1%	6.03	5.28	+0.1
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	17	91	394	73	26	21	85%	4.5	18.5%	6.6%	11.9%	5.3%	6.03	5.35	+0.0
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	99	443	72	48	24	95%	4.5	14.1%	10.1%	4.0%	5.4%	6.84	6.14	-0.8
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	21	99	443	72	48	24	95%	4.5	14.1%	10.1%	4.0%	5.4%	6.84	6.14	-0.8
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	21	99	443	72	48	24	95%	4.5	16.3%	10.8%	5.4%	5.4%	6.84	6.26	-0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			32	29	156	679	110	35	35	91%	4.9	16.2%	5.2%	11.0%	5.2%	5.77	5.28	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	12	12	71	300	47	23	13	100%	5.9	15.7%	7.5%	8.2%	4.4%	5.20	5.52	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	79	334	57	25	15	100%	6.1	17.2%	7.5%	9.7%	4.4%	5.31	5.39	+0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	74	310	53	23	14	100%	6.1	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	4.4%	5.38	5.43	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	70	295	50	23	13	100%	5.8	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	4.5%	5.46	5.51	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	64	268	44	21	13	100%	5.8	16.4%	8.0%	8.5%	4.7%	5.59	5.67	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	57	239	38	20	12	100%	6.3	15.8%	8.2%	7.5%	4.9%	5.76	5.88	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	75	317	54	24	14	100%	6.2	17.2%	7.5%	9.7%	4.4%	5.31	5.39	+0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	70	296	51	22	13	100%	5.8	17.2%	7.6%	9.6%	4.4%	5.38	5.43	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	66	279	47	22	13	100%	6.0	17.0%	7.7%	9.3%	4.5%	5.46	5.51	-0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	60	253	42	20	12	100%	6.0	16.4%	8.0%	8.5%	4.7%	5.59	5.67	-0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	54	228	36	19	11	100%	6.0	15.8%	8.2%	7.5%	4.9%	5.76	5.88	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		86	83	481	2053	340	142	98	97%	5.6	16.6%	6.9%	9.7%	4.8%	5.58	5.19	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	35	200	853	141	59	41	97%	5.6	16.6%	6.9%	9.7%	4.8%	5.58	5.19	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		147	138	693	2955	530	228	138	94%	4.7	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	4.7%	4.91	5.12	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		42	40	200	853	153	66	40	94%	4.7	17.9%	7.7%	10.2%	4.7%	4.91	5.12	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 91 IPFIP 5.83 → 6.14 (+0.32)K% 16.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.38%	—	×0.860	14.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.25%	—	×0.900	10.12%
HR / BF /BF	4.89%	÷1.000	×1.100	5.38%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.83 → 6.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 80 IPFIP 4.93 → 4.90 (−0.03)K% 19.8% → 17.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.76%	—	×0.860	17.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.90%	—	×0.900	5.31%
HR / BF /BF	5.01%	÷1.183	×1.100	4.66%

Result: FIP 4.93 → 4.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 28 IPFIP 5.43 → 5.88 (+0.45)K% 20.8% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.80%	—	×0.860	17.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.00%	—	×0.900	7.20%
HR / BF /BF	5.60%	÷1.001	×1.100	6.15%

Result: FIP 5.43 → 5.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAMidland RockHounds · 104 IPFIP 3.84 → 4.76 (+0.92)K% 23.3% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.26%	—	×0.810	18.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.21%	—	×1.100	7.93%
HR / BF /BF	3.26%	÷0.957	×1.200	4.08%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 3.84 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 33 IPFIP 6.15 → 6.70 (+0.55)K% 21.5% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.53%	—	×0.860	18.51%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×0.900	7.50%
HR / BF /BF	6.94%	÷0.996	×1.100	7.67%

Result: FIP 6.15 → 6.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 91 IPFIP 4.49 → 5.88 (+1.39)K% 23.8% → 18.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.77%	—	×0.770	18.30%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.75%	—	×1.150	8.91%
HR / BF /BF	4.39%	÷0.944	×1.250	5.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 4.49 → 5.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAugusta GreenJackets · 99 IPFIP 2.29 → 3.25 (+0.96)K% 32.1% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.07%	—	×0.740	23.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.180	8.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.77%	÷1.192	×1.300	1.93%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 138).

Result: FIP 2.29 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Braves · 10 IPFIP 3.56 → 4.51 (+0.95)K% 17.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.680	11.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.22%	—	×1.250	19.02%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.56 → 4.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Estes (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	4.4%	—	5.44	17.1%	9.5%	222	-0.08	—	—	—
Jason Grilli R 2001 · 5.93 FIP	24	SP	5.93	14.8%	9.6%	5.2%	.296	6.24	12.8%	2.9%	45	+0.31	2.00	678	75
Hiram Burgos R 2013 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	12.9%	7.9%	3.4%	.314	3.73	18.0%	8.7%	293	-1.16	3.40	384	74
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	71
Ross Stripling R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.281	3.42	23.1%	18.2%	313	-0.90	3.05	930	71
Kyle Gibson R 2013 · 4.74 FIP	25	SP	4.74	12.2%	8.4%	2.9%	.341	3.93	16.0%	8.4%	521	-0.81	3.56	1,920	71
Mike MacDougal R 2001 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	10.4%	6.0%	3.0%	.296	3.79	20.5%	8.7%	75	-0.82	2.68	379	70
Brad Lincoln R 2010 · 5.24 FIP	25	SP-	5.24	10.4%	6.2%	4.0%	.298	4.10	19.9%	12.2%	167	-1.14	3.78	280	69
Rodrigo Lopez R 2000 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP	5.56	14.2%	10.8%	4.2%	.412	4.29	16.2%	9.7%	344	-1.27	4.06	1,344	69
Nelson Figueroa R 2000 · 6.39 FIP	26	SP	6.39	10.3%	7.4%	5.9%	.250	4.88	14.2%	6.2%	217	-1.51	3.71	499	69
Clayton Mortensen R 2009 · 5.68 FIP	24	SP	5.68	8.7%	8.7%	4.0%	.308	4.84	17.1%	7.7%	100	-0.84	4.31	383	68
Kohei Arihara R 2021 · 6.04 FIP	28	SP	6.04	13.5%	7.3%	5.8%	.262	4.58	16.4%	9.2%	94	-1.46	4.58	135	68
Aaron Harang R 2003 · 4.60 FIP	25	SP	4.60	12.8%	5.8%	3.4%	.306	3.76	19.5%	14.0%	607	-0.84	3.42	2,322	68
Jason Standridge R 2003 · 5.76 FIP	24	SP	5.76	12.7%	10.2%	4.5%	.272	4.14	15.3%	5.8%	52	-1.62	3.86	107	68
Griffin Canning R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP	5.21	22.4%	10.1%	5.0%	.295	4.55	21.1%	13.3%	299	-0.66	3.60	809	68
Spencer Jones R 2019 · 5.49 FIP	24	SP	5.49	14.9%	8.9%	4.6%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	171	68
Chris Young R 2004 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP	4.89	17.1%	6.3%	4.4%	.254	3.78	21.9%	13.5%	517	-1.11	3.17	1,298	68
Alfredo Aceves R 2008 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.3%	8.3%	3.3%	.233	3.69	17.6%	10.9%	210	-1.17	3.53	541	67
Matt Magill R 2015 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP	4.98	16.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.435	4.86	18.6%	8.4%	195	-0.12	3.40	287	67
Denny Stark R 2001 · 6.39 FIP	26	SP-	6.39	17.6%	5.9%	7.3%	.340	5.86	9.9%	-0.0%	233	-0.53	5.28	259	67
Daniel McCutchen R 2009 · 4.93 FIP	26	SP	4.93	12.3%	5.8%	3.9%	.264	4.81	12.5%	4.3%	152	-0.12	4.13	476	67

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	81	16.5%	7.1%	1.82	5.53
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Jose Bautista ('88-'97, -2 WAR*)	3.4	86	14.0%*	5.8%*	1.72*	4.90*
Oscar Zamora ('74-'78, -1 WAR*)	1.1	75	15.2%*	5.7%*	2.30*	5.10*