Kendall Williams
P
Tulsa Drillers
+0.2
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'6" / 205 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.5 · 2028
ERA4.99
FIP4.99
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.6%
BB%10.7%
K-BB%6.9%
IP87
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2028
K†4045
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Blue Jays | 6 | 5 | 16 | 63 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 20.5% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 1.12 | 3.13 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | 23 | 19 | 93 | 413 | 87 | 22 | 14 | 15.6% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.53 | 5.10 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 27 | 24 | 110 | 478 | 96 | 53 | 17 | 15.3% | 12.8% | 4.2% | 4.32 | 5.71 | -0.5 |
| 2023 | 22 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | 17 | 16 | 80 | 342 | 62 | 39 | 5 | 15.9% | 12.3% | 1.3% | 3.73 | 4.01 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | 20 | 20 | 93 | 439 | 50 | 50 | 13 | 9.2% | 12.5% | 3.3% | 6.70 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 87 | 368 | 65 | 40 | 11 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 4.99 | 4.99 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 94 | 398 | 75 | 41 | 12 | 18.8% | 10.4% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.85 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 98 | 412 | 78 | 42 | 12 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.82 | 4.82 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 18 | 18 | 98 | 414 | 79 | 42 | 13 | 19.2% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.81 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 96 | 404 | 77 | 41 | 12 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 3.1% | 4.82 | 4.84 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 17 | 17 | 93 | 392 | 74 | 40 | 12 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.87 | 4.91 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 90 | 378 | 71 | 39 | 12 | 18.7% | 10.4% | 3.2% | 4.94 | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 16 | 16 | 86 | 363 | 67 | 38 | 12 | 18.4% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 5.02 | 5.07 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 15 | 15 | 82 | 347 | 63 | 37 | 12 | 18.1% | 10.7% | 3.4% | 5.11 | 5.16 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 14 | 14 | 78 | 329 | 65 | 33 | 11 | 19.7% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 5.05 | 5.00 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 13 | 13 | 74 | 310 | 60 | 32 | 11 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.10 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | LAD | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 55 | 31 | 11 | 18.9% | 10.6% | 3.7% | 5.20 | 5.26 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 93 | 84 | 392 | 1735 | 245 | 193 | 58 | 14.1% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 5.14 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 43 | 200 | 885 | 125 | 98 | 30 | 14.1% | 11.1% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 5.14 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kendall Williams (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.99 | 17.6% | 10.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.83 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 290 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Sano R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 96 |
| Hunter Adkins R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.71 | 16.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .290 | 4.81 | 11.8% | 0.5% | 58 | +0.10 | 4.71 | 160 | 94 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 92 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 90 |
| Yaisel Sierra R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.32 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.05 | 22.4% | 12.3% | 71 | -1.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 90 |
| Jake Bockenstedt R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 16.9% | 11.4% | 2.5% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 195 | 88 |
| Sam Highfill R 2025 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 88 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .284 | 3.50 | 22.7% | 14.3% | 84 | -1.40 | 3.50 | 368 | 88 |
| Tyler Santana R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.46 | 15.4% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .306 | 5.12 | 14.4% | 3.5% | 146 | +0.66 | 3.37 | 353 | 88 |
| Felipe Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.57 | 18.3% | 9.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 3.27 | 22.7% | 12.7% | 50 | -1.30 | 3.27 | 339 | 87 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 87 |
| Nic Swanson R 2026 · 4.93 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.93 | 19.3% | 11.8% | 3.6% | .286 | 5.22 | 16.8% | 4.4% | 61 | +0.29 | 4.24 | 367 | 86 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.39 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.16 | 3.32 | 252 | 86 |
| Jordan Pries R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 2.7% | .307 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 131 | +0.07 | 4.34 | 219 | 86 |
| Phil Klein R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.88 | 18.1% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .280 | 3.12 | 24.5% | 17.9% | 97 | -0.76 | 3.12 | 178 | 86 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.98 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.0% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 157 | 85 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 85 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.43 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .393 | 4.26 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | -0.17 | 4.26 | 166 | 85 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 85 |
| Chase Solesky R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.96 | 15.2% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .322 | 4.60 | 15.7% | 7.4% | 205 | -0.36 | 4.07 | 501 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $11M | $7M | -$4M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.