Luis Carrasco

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 180 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	A+OAK	19	7	63	5.14	4.86	15.5%	11.2%	—	K 12.0% · BB 12.9% · FIP 6.01
2026	24	A+OAK	37	0	43	5.61	4.16	16.3%	9.9%	—	K 12.5% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.83
2027PROJ	25	MLBOAK	27	0	28	5.25	5.25	15.2%	11.2%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBOAK	16	0	17	5.09	5.06	17.1%	11.0%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsBrad Deppermann (age 25) · Tyler Yates (age 26) · Ryan Vogelsong (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%15.2%

BB%11.2%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP28

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Gold	6	4	14	66	12	4	0	67%	2.4	12.4%	7.6%	4.8%	0.0%	6.91	3.02	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Gold	6	4	14	66	12	4	0	67%	2.4	18.2%	6.1%	12.1%	0.0%	6.91	2.26	—
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	6	44	197	44	10	3	35%	2.6	15.5%	6.2%	9.3%	2.0%	4.06	3.67	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	6	44	197	44	10	3	35%	2.6	22.3%	5.1%	17.3%	1.5%	4.06	2.67	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	2	26	112	20	8	2	22%	2.9	12.2%	10.0%	2.2%	2.9%	2.42	4.95	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	2	26	112	20	8	2	22%	2.9	17.9%	7.1%	10.7%	1.8%	2.42	3.48	—
2023	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	17	15	79	356	73	23	4	88%	4.6	15.2%	7.6%	7.6%	1.5%	4.81	3.63	—
2023	21	A RAW	Stockton Ports	17	15	79	356	73	23	4	88%	4.6	20.5%	6.5%	14.0%	1.1%	4.81	2.78	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	19	7	63	277	43	31	8	37%	3.3	12.0%	12.9%	-0.9%	4.2%	5.14	6.01	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	19	7	63	277	43	31	8	37%	3.3	12.0%	12.9%	-0.9%	4.2%	5.14	6.01	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	19	7	63	277	43	31	8	37%	3.3	15.5%	11.2%	4.3%	2.9%	5.14	4.86	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	37	0	43	203	33	20	4	0%	1.2	12.5%	11.3%	1.2%	2.5%	5.61	4.83	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	37	0	43	203	33	20	4	0%	1.2	12.5%	11.3%	1.2%	2.5%	5.61	4.83	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	37	0	43	203	33	20	4	0%	1.2	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	2.0%	5.61	4.16	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	OAK	27	0	28	118	18	13	4	0%	1.0	15.2%	11.2%	3.9%	3.0%	5.25	5.25	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	37	0	39	165	28	18	5	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.06	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	16	0	17	72	12	8	2	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	3.0%	5.09	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	12	8	2	0%	1.0	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	3.0%	5.09	4.68	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	143	95	24	0%	1.1	17.1%	11.0%	6.1%	3.0%	5.09	4.68	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		105	34	270	1211	165	114	29	32%	2.6	13.6%	9.4%	4.2%	2.4%	4.77	4.47	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	25	200	898	122	85	22	32%	2.6	13.6%	9.4%	4.2%	2.4%	4.77	4.47	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Carrasco (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	15.2%	11.2%	3.0%	—	5.06	17.1%	6.1%	39	-0.19	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	89
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	88
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	84
Ross Ohlendorf R 2008 · 4.73 FIP	25	SW	4.73	16.3%	9.3%	3.3%	.357	4.63	15.4%	7.7%	324	-0.10	3.30	617	82
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	82
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	81
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	81
Dillon McNamara R 2017 · 5.01 FIP	25	SW	5.01	13.3%	11.1%	3.0%	.229	3.00	21.2%	12.3%	69	-2.01	1.73	244	80
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	79
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	79
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	79
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	79
Sam Dyson R 2013 · 5.40 FIP	25	SW	5.40	9.3%	7.4%	3.9%	.326	2.94	20.5%	13.5%	188	-2.46	2.65	386	79
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	79
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	79
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	79
El'Hajj Muhammad R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	25	SU	4.58	13.6%	10.0%	2.5%	.285	5.01	7.1%	-2.5%	11	+0.43	4.58	113	79
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	78
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	78
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	16.3%	11.1%	1.15	5.16
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*