Bryce Miller

P Seattle Mariners

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 2.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.3 · 2027

Overview

MLBSP40-MANArb-1FA 2031

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MLBSEA	31	31	180	2.94	3.45	24.3%	6.2%	3.2
2025	26	MIX2 levels	21	21	104	5.47	5.09	20.1%	8.4%	-0.2	K 19.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 5.11
2026	27	MIX3 levels	26	25	132	3.94	4.15	24.6%	8.1%	1.2	K 24.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.43
2027PROJ	28	MLBSEA	27	27	161	4.43	4.66	23.5%	7.7%	0.4
2028PROJ	29	MLBSEA	26	26	154	4.61	4.76	22.9%	7.9%	0.1
2029PROJ	30	MLBSEA	24	24	144	4.83	4.97	22.2%	8.2%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2030Service2.890First FA2031Options3Super-2

2027Arb-1$2M2028Arb-2$2M2029Arb-3$2M2030Arb-4$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo70

xwOBA vs65

K%62

Whiff%48

CompsChase Anderson (age 28) · Matt Shoemaker (age 28) · Anthony DeSclafani (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.43

FIP4.66

K%23.5%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%15.8%

Proj IP161

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7095.9

Whiff%

p4825.0%

p6224.5%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

SI (17%)

CU (11%)

SL-0.9 (12%)

FB-6.0 (58%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2023

Service 2.890 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

OPT

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-4	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Options · projected decision
2027	CLUB OPT	$2.1M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2028	CLUB OPT	$6.1M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE
2029	CLUB OPT	$2.1M / $0.0M buyout	DECLINE

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	5	3	9	45	15	2	0	60%	1.9	33.3%	4.4%	28.9%	0.0%	4.82	0.85	—
2021	22	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	5	3	9	45	15	2	0	60%	1.9	33.3%	4.4%	28.9%	0.0%	4.82	0.53	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	26	134	543	163	46	10	96%	5.0	24.2%	9.5%	14.6%	2.1%	3.16	3.43	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	26	134	543	163	46	10	96%	5.0	30.0%	8.5%	21.5%	1.8%	3.16	2.67	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	151	622	137	29	23	100%	5.2	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	4.1%	4.59	4.13	+1.4
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	151	622	137	29	23	100%	5.2	22.0%	4.7%	17.4%	3.7%	4.59	3.84	+1.9
2024	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.1%	2.94	3.52	+3.0
2024	25	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.1%	2.94	3.52	+3.0
2024	25	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	31	31	180	704	171	44	21	100%	5.8	24.3%	6.2%	18.0%	3.0%	2.94	3.45	+3.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	4.8%	5.47	5.11	-0.2
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	19.7%	8.3%	11.4%	4.8%	5.47	5.11	-0.2
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	104	442	89	37	21	100%	4.9	20.1%	8.4%	11.8%	4.8%	5.47	5.09	-0.2
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	132	540	133	44	21	96%	5.1	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	4.4%	3.94	4.43	+0.7
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	132	540	133	44	21	96%	5.1	24.5%	7.6%	16.9%	4.4%	3.94	4.43	+0.7
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	132	540	133	44	21	96%	5.1	24.6%	8.1%	16.5%	3.9%	3.94	4.15	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			96	95	521	2118	483	141	77	99%	5.4	22.8%	6.7%	16.1%	3.6%	4.04	3.98	+5.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SEA	27	27	161	680	160	52	27	100%	6.0	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	4.0%	4.43	4.66	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SEA	26	26	154	648	148	51	27	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	4.1%	4.67	4.82	+0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	SEA	24	24	144	609	135	50	26	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	4.3%	4.89	5.03	-0.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	SEA	22	22	135	568	122	49	26	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.9%	4.6%	5.11	5.26	-0.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	SEA	26	26	154	650	149	51	26	100%	5.9	22.9%	7.9%	15.0%	4.0%	4.61	4.76	+0.1
2029	30	MLB CTX	SEA	24	24	144	608	135	50	26	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	4.2%	4.83	4.97	-0.2
2030	31	MLB CTX	SEA	22	22	135	570	122	49	25	100%	6.1	21.4%	8.6%	12.9%	4.5%	5.05	5.20	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	167	953	3944	888	291	154	99%	5.7	22.5%	7.4%	15.2%	3.9%	4.40	4.28	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	828	186	61	32	99%	5.7	22.5%	7.4%	15.2%	3.9%	4.40	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		139	135	710	2896	670	205	104	97%	5.1	23.1%	7.1%	16.1%	3.6%	3.92	4.01	+4.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		39	38	200	815	189	58	29	97%	5.1	23.1%	7.1%	16.1%	3.6%	3.92	4.01	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	23.5%	7.7%	4.0%	—	5.03	22.2%	14.0%	432	+0.37	—	—	—
Chase Anderson R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	28	SP	4.83	18.5%	8.2%	4.1%	.285	4.25	21.3%	13.3%	438	-0.58	3.30	1,260	68
Matt Shoemaker R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	20.4%	5.8%	4.1%	.280	3.74	21.8%	15.9%	269	-0.64	3.12	728	65
Anthony DeSclafani R 2018 · 4.47 FIP	28	SP	4.47	22.3%	5.8%	4.6%	.290	3.95	22.6%	16.0%	368	-0.52	3.38	1,014	64
David Phelps R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	28	SP	3.94	16.0%	6.8%	2.4%	.299	2.82	29.9%	20.6%	142	-1.12	2.50	672	64
Jeff Niemann R 2011 · 4.12 FIP	28	SP	4.12	18.4%	6.3%	3.2%	.274	2.96	21.8%	14.1%	38	-1.16	2.96	544	61
Domingo Germán R 2021 · 4.05 FIP	28	SP-	4.05	23.9%	6.6%	3.9%	.269	4.52	21.8%	13.7%	277	+0.47	3.29	777	59
Zack Godley R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	28	SP	3.56	23.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.315	5.07	17.6%	6.5%	219	+1.51	3.21	953	59
Brandon Morrow R 2012 · 3.63 FIP	28	SP	3.63	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.251	4.35	18.4%	10.4%	121	+0.72	2.67	922	58
Jason Johnson R 2002 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP	4.38	17.3%	7.0%	3.4%	.300	4.27	12.9%	6.3%	596	-0.11	4.12	1,351	58
Claudio Vargas R 2006 · 4.54 FIP	28	SP	4.54	16.5%	6.7%	3.6%	.289	4.48	17.2%	8.9%	213	-0.06	3.66	765	57
Masahiro Tanaka R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	25.8%	5.3%	4.4%	.300	3.90	22.1%	16.9%	386	-0.09	2.82	1,054	57
Bud Norris R 2013 · 3.68 FIP	28	SP	3.68	19.0%	8.7%	2.0%	.330	4.05	20.0%	11.9%	361	+0.37	3.51	1,221	57
Luke Hochevar R 2012 · 4.50 FIP	28	SP	4.50	18.0%	7.2%	3.6%	.306	3.66	26.8%	19.3%	131	-0.84	3.04	940	57
Ryan Rupe R 2002 · 4.03 FIP	27	SP	4.03	17.5%	6.5%	2.9%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	467	56
Daisuke Matsuzaka R 2009 · 4.73 FIP	28	SP	4.73	19.1%	10.2%	3.5%	.374	4.37	19.1%	8.0%	237	-0.36	3.77	790	56
Iván Nova R 2015 · 4.44 FIP	28	SP	4.44	15.3%	8.0%	2.9%	.283	4.33	17.3%	13.1%	510	-0.11	3.10	1,348	55
Jake Odorizzi R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	28	SP	3.91	22.8%	9.4%	2.8%	.284	3.73	24.3%	16.6%	277	-0.18	3.16	1,246	55
Dan Straily R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	28	SP	4.48	22.1%	7.3%	4.2%	.283	5.36	18.7%	10.3%	237	+0.88	3.50	1,134	55
Mike Thurman R 2001 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	14.6%	6.5%	3.2%	.303	3.46	15.1%	7.9%	33	-0.99	3.46	482	54
Jesse Hahn R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	28	SP	3.66	16.6%	9.7%	1.3%	.327	2.19	29.2%	16.9%	17	-1.47	2.19	499	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	139	22.7%	7.5%	1.54	4.42
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.1	138	21.3%	7.8%	1.48	4.52
Jerad Eickhoff ('22)	2.3	116	20.7%	6.9%	1.57	4.50
Marv Breuer ('39-'43, 3 WAR*)	2.4	161	23.2%*	6.7%*	1.49*	4.53*
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.6	130	21.9%	7.3%	1.61	4.74
Craig Swan ('73-'84, 10 WAR*)	6.2	124	18.8%*	7.1%*	1.36*	4.46*
Jack Scott ('16-'29, 13 WAR*)	9.1	165	22.5%*	7.7%*	1.37*	4.46*