Nick Lucky — OGILVIE

Nick LuckyOF Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 27 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA H -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 0 ros · stats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .247 / .280

PA3

HR0

K%33

BB%7

BABIP237

ISO121

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	24	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	79	66	10	0	0	1	10	26	3	2	1	152	291	197	488	45	231	33	13	246	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	136	110	26	5	2	5	18	47	5	14	1	236	363	455	818	218	362	35	13	360	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	84	77	18	0	0	0	7	29	0	3	2	234	298	234	531		375	35	8	252	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	INTL	Venados de Mazatlan	—	28	23	4	1	0	0	4	10	0	1	0	174	296	217	514	43	308	36	14	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	24	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	79	69	8	0	0	1	7	34	3	2	1	116	228	159	387	43	199	43	9	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	136	118	21	4	2	4	12	64	5	14	1	178	281	347	629	169	306	47	9	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	84	79	16	0	0	0	5	35	0	3	2	203	250	203	453		356	42	6	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	215	187	28	4	2	4	19	98	8	16	2	150	257	257	514	107	282	46	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A RAW	2 teams	—	215	176	36	5	2	6	28	73	8	16	2	205	336	358	694	153	309	34	13	318	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	112	105	21	0	0	0	6	47	0	4	2	200	243	200	443		362	42	5	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	112	100	22	1	0	0	11	39	0	4	2	220	297	230	527	10	361	35	10	250	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	215	186	28	4	2	4	19	98	8	16	2	151	257	258	515	108	267	46	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	112	105	21	0	0	0	6	47	0	4	2	200	243	200	443		356	42	5	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	A MLE	2 teams	—	215	186	28	4	2	4	19	98	8	16	2	151	257	258	515	108	267	46	9	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	112	105	21	0	0	0	6	47	0	4	2	200	243	200	443		356	42	5	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	NYM	2%	200	181	34	6	1	4	15	59	2	4	1	183	252	287	539	104	245	30	8	246	52	-11	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	NYM	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	178	247	280	527	102	237	33	0	241	52	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	NYM	27%	207	188	35	6	1	4	15	61	2	3	1	185	254	289	542	104	247	29	7	247	53	-12	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.9
2028	28	MLB CTX	NYM	27%	56	51	8	1	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	179	249	281	530	102	239	30	7	242	53	-3	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	56	51	8	1	0	1	4	17	1	1	0	157	232	235	467	78	212	30	7	242	43	-3	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	94	12	0	12	46	197	12	12	0	159	234	240	474	81	214	30	7	242	43	-36	+2	-2	-4	+14	-2.6
Career	—	MLE		—	670	604	108	14	4	11	50	246	11	26	6	179	254	270	524	91	278	37	7	232	43	-19	+0	-1	-2	+7	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	106	14	4	11	49	239	11	25	6	181	257	275	532	94	281	37	8	232	43	-36	+1	-1	-4	+14	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Lucky (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	182/250/285	103	245	3	3	30%	7%	52	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	33→29	46→45	50	44	177/252/305	128	250	14	12	34%	9%	57	-1.8	191/267/316	125	270	14	12	33%	8%	65	-1.2	158/246/282	125	211	17	12	33%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Jackson Cluff 2024 · AA	27	36→30	41→45	51→60	43	178/259/280	102	271	8	15	35%	8%	55	-2.0	185/267/304	119	276	12	25	35%	9%	63	-1.3	167/253/282	115	245	12	32	35%	9%	51	-1.2
✕Andrés Alvarez 2024 · AA	27	37→32	45	51→50	42	191/256/309	118	267	13	13	33%	7%	59	-1.6	214/278/326	112	303	11	11	31%	7%	71	-0.8	220/290/326	106	314	9	12	31%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Jake Lowery 2017 · AA	27	37	42→45	47→30	44	185/253/290	105	260	9	5	32%	8%	54	-2.0	194/264/295	101	308	9	6	37%	9%	59	-1.6	125/202/184	59	253	4	0	48%	9%	10	-1.2
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	35→25	44→50	49→50	35	182/236/299	117	270	12	9	36%	5%	50	-2.3	212/272/323	111	293	10	10	30%	5%	69	-0.9	212/282/301	88	289	5	9	26%	4%	65	-0.3
✕Jake Means 2023 · AA	27	34→31	46→45	51→45	43	180/255/306	126	258	14	9	35%	8%	59	-1.6	183/252/297	114	256	13	10	32%	8%	56	-1.9	128/203/219	91	164	14	8	32%	7%	19	-2.0
✕Jameson Fisher 2021 · AA	27	39→36	40	44→45	42	188/257/280	92	287	8	6	35%	8%	53	-2.1	216/270/329	113	305	11	6	31%	6%	69	-0.9	229/278/357	129	302	14	2	28%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→39	43→50	47→55	38	183/247/296	112	267	11	13	34%	6%	53	-2.1	201/262/336	135	294	15	19	35%	6%	68	-1.0	197/259/326	130	285	15	24	35%	6%	62	-1.1
✕Caleb Hamilton 2022 · AAA	27	36	44→45	47→45	44	181/259/292	111	272	12	9	36%	9%	57	-1.8	177/261/302	125	271	15	6	38%	10%	61	-1.5	140/232/254	115	204	16	3	39%	10%	37	-1.0
✕Seth Fortenberry 2010 · AA	26	36→41	43→45	51→50	42	182/255/296	114	271	11	10	35%	8%	57	-1.8	190/253/290	100	306	7	9	37%	7%	53	-2.1	154/208/242	88	288	0	4	44%	6%	22	-0.8
✕Ryan Aguilar 2022 · AA	27	36→40	42→45	51→50	41	175/259/268	94	291	11	13	41%	9%	53	-2.1	205/294/329	124	325	13	13	37%	10%	79	-0.2	214/314/364	150	322	16	13	35%	11%	91	+0.4
✕Cole Cummings 2024 · AA	26	39→37	47→45	48→45	43	198/277/328	130	276	15	5	32%	8%	72	-0.7	193/260/301	108	308	11	8	38%	7%	59	-1.6	167/236/260	93	283	9	9	41%	7%	40	-2.6
✕Craig Dedelow 2022 · AA	27	35	47→50	44→45	36	184/239/318	134	278	15	5	39%	6%	55	-1.9	186/258/330	144	325	17	11	45%	8%	65	-1.2	157/239/305	148	280	19	14	48%	8%	51	-2.1
✕Anderson Miller 2021 · AA	27	41→47	42→45	47→50	38	206/245/309	103	273	10	12	28%	5%	54	-2.0	206/268/335	129	284	16	15	32%	7%	70	-0.8	167/239/293	126	217	19	18	32%	7%	48	-1.0
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	39→38	41→40	48→50	41	192/258/288	96	263	8	14	29%	6%	55	-1.9	207/273/319	112	287	10	14	30%	7%	68	-1.0	180/253/308	127	261	11	20	33%	6%	55	-0.4
✕Wes Darvill 2018 · AA	26	41→40	41→40	49→45	46	203/262/297	94	259	8	10	25%	7%	58	-1.7	205/253/295	90	286	8	7	29%	6%	54	-2.0	167/207/218	52	233	5	0	30%	5%	17	-1.3
✕Parker Chavers 2024 · A	26	40	44→40	53→55	39	201/255/313	113	286	12	18	33%	6%	60	-1.6	199/269/282	83	281	6	21	29%	8%	57	-1.8	194/274/263	69	265	4	26	26%	10%	52	-1.2
✕Colin Simpson 2023 · A	27	40	46→45	52→40	41	205/260/334	128	280	14	7	31%	6%	66	-1.1	204/264/325	121	296	12	6	33%	7%	65	-1.2	170/235/288	118	252	11	0	35%	8%	44	-1.1
✕Jordan Tarsovich 2017 · AA	26	39	44→45	46→50	47	198/270/309	111	250	12	9	26%	8%	65	-1.2	199/269/291	92	266	7	12	26%	8%	60	-1.6	182/256/255	73	246	4	15	26%	8%	45	-1.8
✕Bret Boswell 2022 · AA	27	40→42	45	43→45	37	203/255/324	121	295	13	9	35%	6%	62	-1.4	198/268/320	122	299	12	9	35%	8%	67	-1.1	174/249/292	118	260	12	7	36%	9%	50	-1.1