Nick Lucky — OGILVIE

Nick LuckyOF Binghamton Rumble Ponies

Age 26 L/R 6'0" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 117 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†47

AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .259 / .267

PA117

HR2

K%31

BB%9

BABIP250

ISO86

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	24	A	2 teams	—	215	185	25	4	1	4	21	105	8	16	2	135	252	232	485	97	276	49	10	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	A	2 teams	—	215	176	36	5	2	6	28	73	8	16	2	205	336	358	694	153	309	34	13	318	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AA	NYM	—	63	59	14	0	0	0	4	19	0	3	1	237	286	237	523		350	30	6	243	44	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
YTD	26	AA	NYM	—	63	57	16	0	0	0	6	15	0	3	1	281	349	281	630		381	24	10	296	85	-1	+0	+0	-0	+2	0.1
ROS	26	AA	NYM	2%	117	105	19	3	0	2	10	36	1	3	1	181	259	267	525	86	259	31	9	247	47	-7	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
ROS	26	MLB	NYM	2%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						259	50	0	237	40	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	26	AA	NYM	—	65	61	14	0	0	0	4	20	0	3	1	230	277	230	506		341	31	6	243	44	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
TOT	26	AA	NYM	—	180	164	33	3	0	2	14	55	1	6	2	201	268	256	524	55	287	31	8	245	46	-11	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	NYM	27%	225	200	39	6	1	4	20	67	3	5	1	195	278	295	573	100	265	30	9	256	54	-12	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.6
2028	28	MLB	NYM	40%	286	256	50	8	1	5	25	84	3	6	2	195	275	293	568	98	266	29	9	260	57	-14	+0	-1	-2	+8	-0.8
2029	29	MLB	NYM	45%	317	282	55	9	1	5	28	93	4	7	2	195	277	287	564	92	267	29	9	261	58	-15	+1	-1	-2	+9	-0.9
2027	27	MLB	NYM	27%	60	54	10	2	0	1	5	18	1	1	0	185	267	278	544	93	264	30	8	247	47	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.2
2028	28	MLB	NYM	40%	114	102	19	3	0	2	10	34	1	3	1	186	265	275	540	88	266	30	9	251	50	-6	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.4
2029	29	MLB	NYM	45%	142	126	25	4	1	2	13	42	2	3	1	198	284	294	577	95	267	30	9	252	51	-8	+0	-1	-1	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	318	284	54	9	1	5	28	95	4	7	2	190	272	282	554	92	263	30	9	251	50	-18	+1	-1	-2	+9	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	581	110	18	2	10	57	194	8	14	4	189	271	279	550	90	262	30	9	251	50	-37	+1	-2	-4	+18	-2.3
Career	—			—	1160	1028	188	30	4	20	104	385	19	37	8	183	270	278	548	95	268	33	9	252	51	-64	+4	-2	-7	+33	-3.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	105	17	2	11	58	216	11	21	4	182	270	276	546	94	267	33	9	252	51	-36	+3	-1	-4	+18	-2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	24	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	79	66	10	0	0	1	10	26	3	2	1	152	291	197	488	45	231	33	13	246	46	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	24	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	136	110	26	5	2	5	18	47	5	14	1	236	363	455	818	218	362	35	13	360	134	+5	+2	—	—	+4	1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	320	5	7	195	273	291	-2	+0	-0.8	-0.4
	/162	664	11	14	195	273	291	-4.0	+0.0	-1.7	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Lucky (OGILVIE)	26	20	38	59	52	201/268/256	55	287	2	6	31%	8%	46	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Seth Fortenberry 2010 · AA	26	37→43	43→45	51→50	42	184/258/300	116	276	11	10	36%	8%	53	-1.5	191/255/292	101	310	7	9	38%	7%	49	-1.8	158/216/249	91	298	0	4	44%	7%	17	-0.7
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	36	39→50	50→55	40	177/243/264	88	262	6	14	33%	6%	37	-2.6	198/276/337	139	318	16	16	40%	8%	71	-0.3	186/272/335	149	306	19	19	42%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→37	44→50	47→55	38	184/248/300	115	271	12	13	35%	6%	49	-1.8	201/261/346	145	293	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Cam Gibson 2019 · AA	25	40→41	43→45	53→55	43	198/261/314	116	274	11	17	31%	7%	57	-1.2	200/261/298	98	280	8	19	30%	7%	53	-1.5	181/243/270	88	251	7	25	29%	6%	35	-2.1
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→29	40→45	48→60	36	176/240/269	93	284	8	11	39%	6%	37	-2.6	186/269/308	122	285	12	21	36%	9%	60	-1.0	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Kevin Merrell 2022 · AAA	26	39→35	40	54→55	39	192/243/281	89	271	8	17	31%	6%	40	-2.4	229/282/370	141	281	18	11	25%	6%	81	+0.4	236/283/396	160	253	27	6	20%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Brian O'Grady 2018 · AA	26	35→37	42→60	54→50	46	179/261/285	106	258	10	14	33%	9%	51	-1.7	213/273/391	178	285	22	14	32%	7%	83	+0.6	207/269/398	192	270	24	15	32%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Daniel Lockhart 2019 · AA	26	39→41	41→45	52→50	41	193/243/291	98	256	8	10	27%	6%	43	-2.2	206/259/316	110	274	11	9	28%	6%	57	-1.2	186/239/291	105	236	12	5	26%	5%	40	-1.1
✕Danny Payne 2011 · A	25	39→42	42→45	55→50	48	190/278/297	107	285	9	19	34%	10%	61	-1.0	196/278/323	127	324	12	14	39%	10%	67	-0.5	170/264/317	147	295	14	11	43%	11%	59	-0.6
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	37→34	41→40	48→50	40	186/251/287	100	259	9	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	205/270/324	119	291	11	14	32%	7%	64	-0.8	182/254/327	145	270	14	20	36%	6%	54	-0.3
✕Connor Hoover 2023 · AA	27	34→29	46→50	50	43	180/253/311	131	257	14	12	35%	8%	54	-1.4	199/273/346	147	278	18	12	33%	8%	72	-0.2	173/257/338	165	221	24	12	34%	9%	60	-0.5
✕Justin Toerner 2023 · AAA	26	39	43→45	48→50	44	192/283/299	108	293	11	10	36%	9%	65	-0.7	194/282/315	121	288	13	11	34%	9%	68	-0.5	127/238/245	118	175	14	9	35%	11%	31	-1.0
✕Wes Darvill 2018 · AA	26	41→38	41→40	49→45	45	202/263/298	95	262	9	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	205/253/295	90	296	8	7	32%	6%	49	-1.8	169/209/221	52	247	5	0	33%	5%	7	-1.3
✕Chad Oberacker 2015 · AA	26	40→49	41→45	55→50	41	197/244/302	105	256	8	14	26%	6%	46	-2.0	216/266/308	92	287	7	15	26%	6%	57	-1.2	223/274/308	85	295	6	18	25%	6%	58	-0.5
✕Parker Bates 2023 · A	25	38	45→50	50	41	195/259/317	123	270	12	12	31%	6%	58	-1.2	191/252/273	82	267	7	12	29%	7%	43	-2.2	164/226/208	45	228	4	12	28%	6%	13	-2.3
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA	26	38→41	44→45	54→50	40	191/262/305	114	272	13	15	33%	7%	56	-1.3	193/257/300	107	289	10	12	35%	7%	53	-1.5	149/216/240	91	232	8	9	38%	7%	17	-1.5
✕Jacob Pearson 2023 · AA	25	39	41→40	50	44	195/260/293	98	266	8	19	29%	7%	52	-1.6	202/266/316	114	300	10	15	34%	7%	60	-1.0	141/207/294	152	225	17	13	44%	8%	26	-0.6
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	36	42→40	49→50	47	183/268/285	102	256	10	13	31%	9%	54	-1.4	203/302/300	97	289	8	11	29%	11%	72	-0.2	190/312/271	81	272	7	11	29%	13%	66	-0.4
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	33→28	45	49→50	42	177/246/290	113	244	14	18	33%	7%	46	-2.0	206/279/324	118	280	13	12	29%	9%	68	-0.5	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5