Nick Thwaits prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Thwaits P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%21.1%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP42

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	8	5	26	109	35	10	0	62%	3.2	21.8%	11.5%	10.4%	0.0%	2.42	2.71	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 1	8	5	26	109	35	10	0	62%	3.2	32.1%	9.2%	22.9%	0.0%	2.42	1.56	—
2021	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	18	87	400	87	35	9	82%	4.0	16.1%	10.3%	5.8%	3.6%	7.03	5.02	—
2021	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	18	87	400	87	35	9	82%	4.0	21.8%	8.8%	13.0%	2.2%	7.03	3.65	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	63	266	53	18	7	0%	1.9	15.8%	8.0%	7.8%	3.7%	3.13	4.80	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	63	266	53	18	7	0%	1.9	19.9%	6.8%	13.2%	2.6%	3.13	3.72	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	60	266	57	30	5	0%	1.8	16.2%	13.1%	3.1%	2.7%	4.22	4.85	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	60	266	57	30	5	0%	1.8	16.2%	13.1%	3.1%	2.7%	4.22	4.85	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	60	266	57	30	5	0%	1.8	21.4%	11.3%	10.2%	1.9%	4.22	3.79	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	11.1%	10.0%	3.0%	4.75	4.75	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	39	0	40	171	36	19	5	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.79	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	14	0	15	63	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.79	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	63	13	7	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.41	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	94	27	0%	1.1	21.2%	11.0%	10.2%	3.1%	4.76	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		96	23	236	1041	173	110	31	24%	2.5	16.6%	10.6%	6.1%	3.0%	4.77	4.68	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	19	200	882	147	93	26	24%	2.5	16.6%	10.6%	6.1%	3.0%	4.77	4.68	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Thwaits (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	21.1%	11.1%	3.0%	—	4.79	21.2%	10.2%	40	+0.04	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	82
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	82
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	81
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	80
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	80
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	80
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	79
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	78
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	76
Carlos Torres R 2010 · 4.50 FIP	27	SW	4.50	18.3%	11.3%	2.8%	.438	3.89	20.1%	13.2%	139	-0.61	2.89	604	75
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	75
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	75
Wil Jensen R 2023 · 4.88 FIP	25	SU	4.88	20.2%	12.1%	3.5%	.284	3.48	22.7%	14.3%	84	-1.40	3.48	368	75
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	75
Linder Castro R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SW	4.63	18.9%	10.7%	3.2%	.305	5.68	21.1%	6.3%	62	+1.05	4.23	279	74
Jordan Milbrath R 2019 · 4.01 FIP	27	SU	4.01	21.5%	9.5%	2.8%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	386	74
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	74
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	41	21.1%	11.1%	1.18	4.75
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16