Antoine Kelly

P Iowa Cubs

Age 27 LHP 6'5" / 205 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	28	26	9.35	5.68	24.5%	23.0%	—	K 20.5% · BB 20.8% · FIP 5.24
2025	25	AAACOL	34	38	5.63	3.67	21.2%	13.5%	—	K 18.3% · BB 12.1% · FIP 3.71
2026	26	MIX2 levels	48	52	4.50	4.25	23.7%	16.9%	0.2	K 20.4% · BB 15.1% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	27	MLBCHC	30	31	4.89	4.89	20.1%	14.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBCHC	12	13	4.88	4.91	20.3%	13.7%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMatt Thornton (age 27) · Brian Moran (age 26) · John Bale (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110118vR 126

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%20.1%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%6.1%

Proj IP31

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	32	125	45	9	2	100%	3.2	25.8%	5.8%	20.0%	0.0%	2.84	1.65	—
2019	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	32	125	45	9	2	100%	3.2	36.0%	7.2%	28.8%	1.6%	2.84	1.93	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	19	94	27	19	0	89%	2.1	22.5%	23.9%	-1.4%	0.0%	9.78	4.23	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	8	19	94	27	19	0	89%	2.1	28.7%	20.2%	8.5%	0.0%	9.78	3.26	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	110	474	143	71	6	92%	4.2	23.4%	17.0%	6.4%	1.8%	4.43	4.26	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	110	474	143	71	6	92%	4.2	30.2%	15.0%	15.2%	1.3%	4.43	3.15	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	57	246	79	23	4	0%	1.2	25.8%	11.2%	14.6%	2.3%	2.04	3.58	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	57	246	79	23	4	0%	1.2	32.1%	9.3%	22.8%	1.6%	2.04	2.45	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	26	139	34	32	3	0%	0.9	20.5%	20.8%	-0.3%	2.2%	9.35	5.24	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	26	139	34	32	3	0%	0.9	20.5%	20.8%	-0.3%	2.2%	9.35	5.24	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	26	139	34	32	3	0%	0.9	24.5%	23.0%	1.4%	2.2%	9.35	5.68	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	34	0	38	193	41	26	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.1%	6.1%	1.1%	5.63	3.71	—
2025	25	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	34	0	38	193	41	26	2	0%	1.1	18.3%	12.1%	6.1%	1.1%	5.63	3.71	—
2025	25	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	34	0	38	193	41	26	2	0%	1.1	21.2%	13.5%	7.8%	1.0%	5.63	3.67	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	249	59	42	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	15.1%	5.3%	1.8%	4.50	4.27	+0.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	52	249	59	42	4	0%	1.1	20.4%	15.1%	5.3%	1.8%	4.50	4.27	+0.2
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	52	249	59	42	4	0%	1.1	23.7%	16.9%	6.8%	1.6%	4.50	4.25	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.85	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	CHC	30	0	31	131	26	18	3	0%	1.0	20.1%	14.0%	6.1%	2.4%	4.89	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	CHC	29	0	30	128	26	17	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	13.7%	6.7%	2.6%	4.88	4.91	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	CHC	12	0	13	55	11	8	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	13.7%	6.7%	2.6%	4.88	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	58	12	8	1	0%	1.1	20.7%	14.5%	6.2%	2.4%	4.42	4.51	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	821	169	113	14	0%	1.1	20.7%	14.5%	6.2%	2.4%	4.42	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		204	42	334	1520	342	228	24	21%	1.6	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	1.6%	4.71	3.96	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	25	200	909	205	136	14	21%	1.6	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	1.6%	4.71	3.96	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Antoine Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	20.1%	14.0%	2.4%	—	4.91	20.3%	6.7%	30	+0.02	—	—	—
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	81
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	80
Juan Pablo Perez L 2007 · 5.32 FIP	28	SU	5.32	17.5%	14.0%	3.5%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	79
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	78
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	75
Mitchell Tyranski L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	26	SU	4.90	21.0%	12.3%	3.7%	.234	3.46	20.5%	4.0%	57	-1.44	3.46	145	75
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	75
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	74
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	74
Braulio Lara L 2016 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	17.7%	11.0%	2.5%	.289	5.80	19.8%	2.0%	40	+1.45	3.96	118	74
Jake Rice L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	27	SU	3.75	21.8%	13.8%	1.4%	.273	5.90	16.5%	0.9%	54	+2.15	3.16	199	74
Jeff Ibarra L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	28	SU	3.75	17.8%	9.7%	1.7%	.321	3.29	19.2%	13.8%	66	-0.46	2.85	101	74
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	74
Stephen Randolph L 2003 · 4.83 FIP	29	SU	4.83	18.5%	14.8%	2.6%	.247	5.69	15.8%	-3.0%	82	+0.86	4.83	155	74
Jordan Norberto L 2015 · 4.30 FIP	28	SU	4.30	16.9%	14.1%	1.5%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	117	73
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	73
Hunter Schryver L 2022 · 4.00 FIP	27	SU	4.00	17.7%	12.8%	1.4%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	206	73
Russell Smith L 2024 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	19.0%	13.9%	1.4%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	175	73
Jeff Belge L 2024 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	19.4%	12.3%	2.1%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	175	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	20.3%	14.0%	0.96	4.78
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51