Kyle Leahy
P
St. Louis Cardinals
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION89 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117107vR 98
ERA3.74
FIP3.76
K%20.0%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 149 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4494.1
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p3019.3%
xwOBA vs
p150.353
SI (13%)
CU (16%)
CH-1.3 (13%)
SL-1.7 (29%)
FB-1.9 (42%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | 13 | 10 | 59 | 277 | 45 | 11 | 7 | 77% | 4.5 | 11.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 5.68 | 4.74 | — |
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | 13 | 10 | 59 | 277 | 45 | 11 | 7 | 77% | 4.5 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 5.68 | 3.68 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 102 | 32 | 7 | 96% | 5.3 | 14.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 3.73 | 3.75 | — |
| 2019 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 102 | 32 | 7 | 96% | 5.3 | 19.7% | 6.2% | 13.5% | 1.3% | 3.73 | 2.96 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 10 | 87 | 422 | 63 | 44 | 17 | 40% | 3.5 | 12.1% | 11.5% | 0.6% | 4.9% | 8.20 | 6.24 | — |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 10 | 87 | 422 | 63 | 44 | 17 | 40% | 3.5 | 14.9% | 10.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 8.20 | 5.72 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 145 | 654 | 146 | 72 | 23 | 93% | 5.2 | 18.3% | 12.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 5.29 | 5.10 | — |
| 2022 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 145 | 654 | 146 | 72 | 23 | 93% | 5.2 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 5.29 | 4.64 | — |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 4 | 85 | 401 | 94 | 44 | 16 | 8% | 1.7 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 4.7% | 6.56 | 5.25 | -0.2 |
| 2023 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 4 | 85 | 401 | 94 | 44 | 16 | 8% | 1.7 | 23.4% | 11.0% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 6.56 | 4.89 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 77 | 312 | 64 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.6 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 13.4% | 3.3% | 3.99 | 4.04 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 49 | 0 | 77 | 312 | 64 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.5% | 5.8% | 14.7% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 3.83 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 62 | 1 | 88 | 363 | 80 | 27 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 14.6% | 1.4% | 3.07 | 2.94 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 62 | 1 | 88 | 363 | 80 | 27 | 5 | 2% | 1.4 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 14.6% | 1.4% | 3.07 | 2.94 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 18 | 18 | 89 | 388 | 75 | 33 | 9 | 100% | 5.0 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 2.3% | 3.73 | 3.82 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 251 | 50 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 3.74 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | STL | 10 | 10 | 60 | 253 | 51 | 20 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% | 2.4% | 3.74 | 3.76 | +0.6 |
| 2026 TOT | 29 | MLB | STL | — | — | 149 | 639 | 125 | 53 | 15 | — | — | 19.6% | 8.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 3.73 | 3.80 | +2.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 29 | MLB | STL | — | — | 149 | 629 | 125 | 53 | 15 | — | — | 19.9% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 2.4% | 3.73 | 3.81 | +2.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | STL | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 57 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | STL | 61 | 0 | 64 | 271 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | STL | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 45 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | STL | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 54 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | STL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 48 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.44 | 4.57 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | STL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 43 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 302 | 31 | 470 | 1982 | 386 | 162 | 47 | 10% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 3.98 | 3.80 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 129 | 13 | 200 | 843 | 164 | 69 | 20 | 10% | 1.6 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 2.4% | 3.98 | 3.80 | +3.7 | ||
| Career | — | 267 | 91 | 752 | 3336 | 577 | 301 | 107 | 34% | 2.8 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 4.54 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 24 | 200 | 887 | 153 | 80 | 28 | 34% | 2.8 | 17.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 4.97 | 4.54 | +2.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Leahy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 2.5% | — | 4.56 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 193 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 79 |
| Bud Norris R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 76 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.16 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 71 | +1.14 | 3.16 | 158 | 76 |
| Mike Wright Jr. R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.76 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 2.6% | .347 | 3.99 | 17.6% | 7.3% | 169 | +0.23 | 3.73 | 725 | 75 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 75 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2027 · 3.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.30 | 19.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | .278 | 2.36 | 21.4% | 18.5% | 98 | -0.94 | 2.11 | 287 | 74 |
| Jose Pina R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 73 |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.28 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 2.6% | .316 | 3.71 | 17.1% | 8.5% | 348 | -0.57 | 3.16 | 593 | 72 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 72 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 72 |
| Michael Bowden R 2025 · 3.25 FIP | 28 | SP- | 3.25 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 1.4% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 141 | 71 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 70 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2024 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 70 |
| Jake Brigham R 2024 · 3.15 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.15 | 15.0% | 6.5% | 0.9% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 108 | 69 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.54 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | .267 | 4.47 | 13.6% | 4.3% | 63 | -0.07 | 3.14 | 300 | 68 |
| Phil Klein R 2024 · 3.17 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.17 | 24.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 178 | 68 |
| Donovan Hand R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.29 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.30 | 12.5% | 5.7% | 140 | +0.01 | 4.29 | 237 | 68 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.04 | 17.2% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .281 | 5.00 | 15.4% | 8.2% | 139 | +0.96 | 3.93 | 337 | 68 |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.76 | 21.0% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .347 | 2.99 | 17.8% | 11.9% | 54 | -0.77 | 2.22 | 187 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 19.5% | 8.3% | 1.08 | 4.32 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |