Kyle Leahy — OGILVIE

Kyle Leahy P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 29 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs MLB peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION135 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.53

FIP3.53

K%22.2%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%15.2%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 147 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p3122.6%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

SI (13%)

CU (16%)

CH-1.3 (14%)

SL-1.7 (30%)

FB-1.9 (39%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	13	10	59	277	45	11	7	77%	4.5	11.0%	5.0%	6.1%	3.5%	5.68	4.74	—
2018	21	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	13	10	59	277	45	11	7	77%	4.5	16.2%	4.0%	12.3%	2.5%	5.68	3.68	—
2019	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	22	123	519	102	32	7	96%	5.3	14.7%	7.4%	7.3%	1.7%	3.73	3.75	—
2019	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	22	123	519	102	32	7	96%	5.3	19.7%	6.2%	13.5%	1.3%	3.73	2.96	—
2021	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	25	10	87	422	63	44	17	40%	3.5	12.1%	11.5%	0.6%	4.9%	8.20	6.21	—
2021	24	AA RAW	Springfield Cardinals	25	10	87	422	63	44	17	40%	3.5	14.9%	10.4%	4.5%	4.0%	8.20	5.72	—
2022	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	26	145	654	146	72	23	93%	5.2	18.3%	12.2%	6.0%	3.9%	5.29	5.23	—
2022	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	26	145	654	146	72	23	93%	5.2	22.3%	11.0%	11.3%	3.5%	5.29	4.64	—
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	4	85	401	94	44	16	8%	1.7	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	4.5%	6.56	5.04	-0.5
2023	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	4	85	401	94	44	16	8%	1.7	19.8%	9.1%	10.7%	4.5%	6.56	5.04	-0.5
2023	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	4	85	401	94	44	16	8%	1.7	23.4%	11.0%	12.5%	4.0%	6.56	4.89	-0.3
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	77	312	64	18	10	0%	1.6	18.8%	5.5%	13.3%	3.5%	3.99	4.10	+0.4
2024	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	77	312	64	18	10	0%	1.6	18.8%	5.5%	13.3%	3.5%	3.99	4.10	+0.4
2024	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	77	312	64	18	10	0%	1.6	20.5%	5.8%	14.7%	3.2%	3.99	3.83	+0.7
2025	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	62	1	88	363	80	27	5	2%	1.4	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	1.5%	3.07	2.99	+1.6
2025	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	62	1	88	363	80	27	5	2%	1.4	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	1.5%	3.07	2.99	+1.6
2025	28	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	62	1	88	363	80	27	5	2%	1.4	22.0%	7.4%	14.6%	1.4%	3.07	2.94	+1.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			126	29	273	1139	243	80	24	23%	2.2	21.3%	7.0%	14.3%	2.1%	3.49	3.34	+4.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	135	570	128	38	14	100%	4.8	22.5%	6.7%	15.8%	2.6%	3.33	3.50	+2.3
YTD	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	28	28	135	570	128	38	14	100%	4.8	22.5%	6.7%	15.8%	2.6%	3.33	3.50	+2.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	29	MLB RAW	STL	28	28	135	570	128	38	14	100%	4.8	22.5%	6.7%	15.8%	2.5%	3.33	3.40	+2.5
SO FAR	29	MLB RAW	STL	28	28	135	570	128	38	14	100%	4.8	22.5%	6.7%	15.8%	2.5%	3.33	3.40	+2.5
ROS	29	MLB MLE	STL	2	2	12	52	12	4	1	100%	6.2	22.2%	6.9%	15.2%	2.6%	3.53	3.53	+0.2
ROS	29	MLB CTX	STL	2	2	12	51	11	4	1	100%	6.0	22.2%	6.9%	15.2%	2.6%	3.53	3.53	+0.2
2026 TOT	29	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	147	622	140	42	15	—	—	22.4%	6.7%	15.7%	2.5%	3.35	3.50	+2.5
FULL	29	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	147	622	140	42	15	—	—	22.4%	6.7%	15.7%	2.5%	3.35	3.41	+2.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	30	MLB MLE	STL	66	0	69	291	62	21	8	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.7%	4.00	4.08	+0.4
2028	31	MLB MLE	STL	61	0	64	271	56	21	8	0%	1.1	20.6%	7.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.19	4.31	+0.2
2027	30	MLB CTX	STL	63	0	66	279	59	20	8	0%	1.0	21.3%	7.2%	14.1%	2.7%	4.00	4.08	+0.4
2028	31	MLB CTX	STL	58	0	61	258	53	20	8	0%	1.1	20.6%	7.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.19	4.31	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		249	32	412	1726	367	123	40	13%	1.7	21.3%	7.1%	14.1%	2.3%	3.68	3.49	+5.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		121	15	200	837	178	60	19	13%	1.7	21.3%	7.1%	14.1%	2.3%	3.68	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		277	101	798	3518	623	299	114	36%	2.9	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.46	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	25	200	882	156	75	29	36%	2.9	17.7%	8.5%	9.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.46	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Leahy (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.02	21.3%	7.3%	2.6%	—	4.19	21.0%	13.6%	133	+0.17	—	—	—
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	78
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	78
Esmil Rogers R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	29	SW	3.51	18.5%	8.9%	1.6%	.348	2.86	21.7%	17.9%	40	-0.65	2.86	199	74
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	73
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	178	73
Austin Pruitt R 2019 · 4.21 FIP	29	SW	4.21	20.5%	5.5%	3.9%	.327	4.13	18.3%	14.4%	95	-0.08	2.94	819	71
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	70
Michael Bowden R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	28	SP-	3.21	17.3%	6.4%	1.4%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.21	141	70
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	29	SW	3.97	15.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.316	3.74	17.1%	8.5%	348	-0.23	3.13	593	70
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	69
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	68
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	67
Mike Bolsinger R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	29	SW	4.26	20.2%	9.4%	3.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	327	67
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	67
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.15	17.6%	6.7%	202	+1.50	3.65	245	67
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	432	66
Jake Brigham R 2015 · 3.09 FIP	27	SW	3.09	15.0%	6.5%	0.8%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.09	108	66
Burch Smith R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	29	SW	3.96	22.6%	12.3%	2.2%	.271	4.19	14.9%	9.0%	43	+0.23	3.50	382	65
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	65
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	69	21.1%	7.4%	1.06	4.07
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47