Kyle Leahy
P
St. Louis Cardinals
+0.9
WAR
Age 29
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.9 · 2026
ERA3.74
FIP3.96
xFIP4.72
SIERA4.86
K%21.5%
BB%7.6%
K-BB%13.9%
IP73
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.9peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p1119.8%
K%
p1013.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.371
SI (14%)
CU (15%)
CH-1.3 (10%)
SL-1.7 (28%)
FB-1.9 (46%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | ROK | Johnson City Cardinals | 13 | 10 | 59 | 277 | 45 | 11 | 7 | 11.0% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 5.68 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 23 | 22 | 123 | 519 | 102 | 32 | 7 | 14.7% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 3.73 | 3.74 | +2.2 |
| 2021 | 24 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | 25 | 10 | 87 | 422 | 63 | 44 | 17 | 12.1% | 11.5% | 4.9% | 8.20 | 6.22 | -1.0 |
| 2022 | 25 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | 28 | 26 | 145 | 654 | 146 | 72 | 23 | 18.3% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 5.29 | 5.27 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 49 | 4 | 85 | 401 | 94 | 44 | 16 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 6.56 | 5.13 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 49 | 0 | 77 | 312 | 64 | 18 | 10 | 19.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 3.99 | 4.07 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 62 | 1 | 88 | 363 | 80 | 27 | 5 | 22.0% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 3.07 | 2.99 | +2.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 29 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 3 | 3 | 14 | 64 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 10.9% | 12.5% | 1.6% | 5.14 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 29 | MLB | STL | 59 | — | 59 | 251 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | 3.65 | 3.88 | +0.7 |
| 2026 Total | 29 | MLB | STL | — | — | 73 | 315 | 56 | 29 | 7 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 2.3% | 3.93 | 4.02 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 30 | MLB | STL | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 19.0% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.24 | 4.37 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 31 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 290 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 4.38 | 4.47 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 32 | MLB | STL | 12 | 12 | 66 | 279 | 50 | 24 | 8 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 33 | MLB | STL | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 46 | 24 | 7 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.63 | 4.71 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 34 | MLB | STL | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 41 | 23 | 7 | 16.4% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 35 | MLB | STL | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 37 | 22 | 7 | 15.7% | 9.4% | 3.0% | 4.91 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| 2033 | 36 | MLB | STL | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 33 | 21 | 7 | 14.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 252 | 76 | 677 | 3012 | 509 | 276 | 100 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.66 | +4.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 74 | 22 | 200 | 890 | 150 | 82 | 30 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 4.66 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Leahy (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.01 | 22.3% | 7.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.47 | 18.4% | 9.8% | 206 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Chris Leroux R 2028 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 82 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2028 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.80 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 3.29 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.51 | 3.15 | 485 | 80 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.25 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .275 | 3.71 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 152 | -0.54 | 3.46 | 295 | 80 |
| Angel Castro R 2029 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 80 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 79 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.41 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.4% | .283 | 4.31 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.90 | 3.41 | 104 | 79 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 79 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.29 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.78 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.49 | 3.39 | 212 | 79 |
| Bo Schultz R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.20 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | .218 | 3.50 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 77 | -0.70 | 2.73 | 141 | 78 |
| Tim Dillard R 2029 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 78 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.38 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.82 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.44 | 4.38 | 101 | 78 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2028 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Collin Balester R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.23 | 14.2% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .240 | 3.20 | 21.2% | 15.4% | 43 | -1.03 | 3.20 | 116 | 77 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.66 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.6% | .332 | 4.35 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.31 | 4.35 | 135 | 77 |
| Luis García R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.77 | 20.6% | 10.9% | 1.9% | .281 | 3.74 | 21.6% | 12.6% | 179 | -0.03 | 2.26 | 602 | 77 |
| Jim Johnson R 2029 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 76 |
| Al Alburquerque R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.56 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.33 | 2.83 | 228 | 76 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.83 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 75 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2024
Service 1.814 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.2M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$6M | ||