Jack Anderson
P
Worcester Red Sox
+0.7
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 197 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
xFIP3.94
SIERA3.82
K%21.5%
BB%7.5%
K-BB%14.1%
IP77
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5050
FB+1.0 (36%)
CU (8%)
SL-1.1 (32%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 5 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 3 | — | — | — | 7.50 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 39 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 72 | 13 | 4 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 1.9% | 3.47 | 3.09 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 39 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 43 | 12 | 8 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.80 | 5.37 | -0.3 |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 35 | 1 | 66 | 272 | 60 | 13 | 5 | 17.4% | 5.3% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 3.74 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 26 | 7 | 87 | 364 | 101 | 22 | 12 | 22.7% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.57 | 4.02 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 2 | 13 | 51 | 13 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.55 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 68 | 23 | 11 | 21.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.5 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 87 | 365 | 81 | 27 | 13 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 4.33 | 3.81 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 77 | 324 | 70 | 25 | 11 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 14 | 14 | 76 | 319 | 70 | 25 | 11 | 21.8% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.46 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 68 | 25 | 11 | 21.8% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 4.49 | 4.51 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 72 | 302 | 65 | 25 | 10 | 21.6% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.53 | 4.57 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 62 | 24 | 10 | 21.4% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 4.60 | 4.64 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 59 | 23 | 10 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 56 | 23 | 10 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 3.7% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 52 | 22 | 10 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 4.87 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | BOS | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 48 | 22 | 9 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 3.9% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | BOS | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 44 | 21 | 9 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 4.0% | 5.11 | 5.19 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 147 | 10 | 286 | 1198 | 233 | 75 | 42 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 7 | 200 | 839 | 163 | 53 | 29 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 4.19 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Anderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 21.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | — | 4.48 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 226 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 87 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 86 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 85 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 85 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 84 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.07 | 21.8% | 6.3% | 1.8% | .325 | 3.95 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.88 | 3.07 | 307 | 84 |
| James Farris R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 24.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 170 | 84 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.11 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | .262 | 4.36 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 35 | +1.25 | 3.11 | 133 | 83 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .174 | 3.39 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 206 | -0.66 | 2.27 | 445 | 83 |
| Austin Brice R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.24 | 21.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | .274 | 4.23 | 22.9% | 12.6% | 111 | -0.01 | 3.45 | 542 | 83 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .256 | 3.82 | 23.0% | 13.9% | 56 | -0.63 | 2.68 | 149 | 83 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .338 | 4.05 | 27.3% | 16.7% | 85 | -0.26 | 2.30 | 480 | 83 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 83 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 83 |
| Bryan Evans R 2028 · 4.19 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.19 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .250 | 4.61 | 19.7% | 14.9% | 132 | +0.42 | 3.86 | 231 | 83 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 82 |
| Steve Geltz R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 82 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 82 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2027
DEF 10%
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.5M |
| Totals | $6M | $11M | +$5M | ||