Jack Anderson

P St. Paul Saints

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 197 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	35	1	66	3.66	2.86	22.1%	4.8%	—	K 17.3% · BB 4.9% · FIP 3.68
2025	25	MIX2 levels	26	7	87	4.57	3.33	27.7%	6.0%	—	K 22.6% · BB 6.4% · FIP 3.98
2026	26	MIX2 levels	35	16	106	4.60	4.28	19.9%	7.2%	0.3	K 16.6% · BB 6.6% · FIP 4.74
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	83	0	87	4.53	4.53	18.3%	5.3%	0.0
2028PROJ79% MLB	28	MLBMIN	78	0	82	4.56	4.59	18.6%	5.7%	-0.0
2029PROJ84% MLB	29	MLBMIN	72	0	76	4.63	4.70	18.6%	6.0%	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control60Command60

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsLance Carter (age 27) · Alex Wilson (age 27) · Gus Schlosser (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.53

FIP4.53

K%18.3%

BB%5.3%

K-BB%13.1%

Proj IP126

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers East	5	0	6	28	3	4	3	0%	1.2	10.7%	14.3%	-3.6%	10.7%	7.50	9.89	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Tigers East	5	0	6	28	3	4	3	0%	1.2	10.7%	14.3%	-3.6%	10.7%	7.50	10.60	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	60	248	72	13	4	0%	1.5	21.8%	6.1%	15.6%	1.8%	3.47	3.04	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	60	248	72	13	4	0%	1.5	29.0%	5.2%	23.8%	1.6%	3.47	2.21	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	0	54	235	43	12	8	0%	1.4	14.1%	5.9%	8.2%	4.8%	4.80	5.30	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	39	0	54	235	43	12	8	0%	1.4	18.3%	5.1%	13.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.09	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	66	272	60	13	5	3%	1.9	17.3%	4.9%	12.4%	2.6%	3.66	3.68	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	1	66	272	60	13	5	3%	1.9	17.3%	4.9%	12.4%	2.6%	3.66	3.68	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	1	66	272	60	13	5	3%	1.9	22.1%	4.8%	17.3%	1.8%	3.66	2.86	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	7	87	364	101	22	12	27%	3.3	22.6%	6.4%	16.2%	3.6%	4.57	3.98	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	7	87	364	101	22	12	27%	3.3	22.6%	6.4%	16.2%	3.6%	4.57	3.98	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	7	87	364	101	22	12	27%	3.3	27.7%	6.0%	21.7%	3.3%	4.57	3.33	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	106	458	91	33	16	46%	3.0	16.6%	6.6%	10.0%	4.0%	4.60	4.74	-0.2
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	16	106	458	91	33	16	46%	3.0	16.6%	6.6%	10.0%	4.0%	4.60	4.74	-0.2
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	16	106	458	91	33	16	46%	3.0	19.9%	7.2%	12.7%	3.5%	4.60	4.28	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	0	12	48	12	3	1	0%	1.8	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	2.1%	2.19	2.94	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	83	0	87	367	67	19	13	0%	1.0	18.3%	5.3%	13.1%	3.5%	4.53	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	99	0	104	439	82	25	16	0%	1.1	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	3.6%	4.56	4.59	-0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIN	86	0	90	380	71	23	14	0%	1.0	18.6%	6.0%	12.5%	3.7%	4.63	4.70	-0.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	MIN	76	0	80	337	62	22	13	0%	1.0	18.4%	6.4%	12.0%	3.8%	4.75	4.85	-0.3
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	78	0	82	346	64	20	12	0%	1.1	18.6%	5.7%	12.9%	3.6%	4.56	4.59	-0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIN	72	0	76	321	60	19	12	0%	1.1	18.6%	6.0%	12.5%	3.7%	4.63	4.70	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	MIN	67	0	70	296	54	19	11	0%	1.0	18.4%	6.4%	12.0%	3.8%	4.75	4.85	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	0	240	1007	190	61	36	0%	1.1	18.8%	6.0%	12.8%	3.6%	4.52	4.26	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	841	159	51	30	0%	1.1	18.8%	6.0%	12.8%	3.6%	4.52	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		179	24	379	1605	295	100	57	13%	2.1	18.4%	6.2%	12.2%	3.6%	4.33	4.30	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		95	13	200	848	156	53	30	13%	2.1	18.4%	6.2%	12.2%	3.6%	4.33	4.30	-0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 93 IPFIP 4.41 → 4.74 (+0.34)K% 19.3% → 16.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.27%	—	×0.860	16.57%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×0.900	6.59%
HR / BF /BF	3.66%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.02%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.41 → 4.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 75 IPFIP 2.62 → 3.25 (+0.63)K% 29.2% → 23.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.22%	—	×0.810	23.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.84%	—	×1.100	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	2.27%	÷1.119	×1.200	2.44%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 2.62 → 3.25, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 11 IPFIP 7.25 → 7.96 (+0.72)K% 19.6% → 16.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.64%	—	×0.860	16.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×0.900	6.43%
HR / BF /BF	8.93%	÷0.984	×1.100	9.98%

Result: FIP 7.25 → 7.96, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 49 IPFIP 2.24 → 3.14 (+0.90)K% 25.5% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.51%	—	×0.770	19.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.150	4.11%
HR / BF /BF	1.53%	÷0.889	×1.250	2.15%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 2.24 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 17 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.05 (+0.62)K% 13.2% → 11.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.16%	—	×0.860	11.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.89%	—	×0.900	7.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.63%	÷0.792	×1.100	3.65%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.05, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 54 IPFIP 4.07 → 5.30 (+1.23)K% 18.3% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.30%	—	×0.770	14.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.11%	—	×1.150	5.87%
HR / BF /BF	3.40%	÷0.882	×1.250	4.83%

Result: FIP 4.07 → 5.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 39 IPFIP 2.09 → 2.93 (+0.85)K% 32.5% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.47%	—	×0.740	24.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.19%	—	×1.180	6.13%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.279	×1.300	1.98%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 156).

Result: FIP 2.09 → 2.93, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 21 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.21 (+0.83)K% 23.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.770	18.02%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×1.150	6.12%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.847	×1.250	1.57%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.21, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jack Anderson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	18.3%	5.3%	3.5%	—	4.70	18.5%	12.5%	274	+0.17	—	—	—
Lance Carter R 2002 · 3.63 FIP	27	SU	3.63	17.7%	5.1%	2.5%	.220	4.80	11.6%	6.3%	216	+1.17	3.63	248	78
Alex Wilson R 2014 · 3.76 FIP	27	SU	3.76	17.4%	4.6%	2.8%	.207	3.51	15.5%	11.2%	203	-0.25	2.93	382	77
Gus Schlosser R 2016 · 3.92 FIP	27	SU	3.92	18.7%	5.6%	3.1%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	107	76
Connor Schultz R 2024 · 3.88 FIP	25	SU	3.88	19.7%	5.3%	3.2%	.283	4.02	18.8%	10.4%	156	+0.14	3.53	203	75
Vinny Nittoli R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	19.0%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	3.86	26.9%	20.4%	93	-0.32	3.66	331	75
Cristhian Martinez R 2009 · 3.51 FIP	27	SU	3.51	16.1%	6.2%	1.8%	.294	3.46	19.8%	14.7%	177	-0.05	3.09	204	74
Shawn Camp R 2004 · 4.18 FIP	28	SU	4.18	17.8%	5.2%	3.5%	.305	3.88	15.5%	10.5%	164	-0.30	2.79	589	73
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	73
Marco Estrada R 2010 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	22.4%	10.3%	4.9%	.306	3.54	24.0%	18.1%	359	-1.68	3.28	1,244	73
Joel Peralta R 2005 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.7%	8.3%	4.1%	.227	4.27	18.0%	13.3%	214	-0.40	2.70	648	72
Geoff Geary R 2004 · 4.85 FIP	27	SU	4.85	15.0%	6.5%	4.0%	.295	3.65	15.0%	9.5%	217	-1.20	3.16	345	72
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	72
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	72
Deolis Guerra R 2016 · 3.59 FIP	27	SU	3.59	16.4%	3.2%	2.7%	.269	3.27	26.3%	19.3%	192	-0.32	2.53	364	71
Michael Dimock R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	27	SU	4.12	18.9%	7.8%	2.9%	.339	3.37	23.5%	12.8%	29	-0.75	3.08	166	71
Rafael Betancourt R 2003 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	23.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.216	2.84	25.0%	20.8%	191	-0.97	1.79	686	71
Mike Burns R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	14.7%	5.1%	4.4%	.223	3.10	15.4%	13.5%	21	-1.83	3.10	104	70
Hector Ambriz R 2010 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	16.5%	7.1%	4.5%	.360	4.28	19.5%	10.8%	56	-0.79	2.24	259	70
Christian Bergman R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	12.9%	4.9%	2.5%	.326	4.45	15.2%	9.4%	372	+0.46	3.99	521	70
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	103	18.6%	5.8%	1.39	4.53
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Bill Long ('85-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.6	130	14.8%*	6.2%*	1.31*	4.45*
Austin Pruitt ('24)	1.6	63	16.6%	5.6%	1.31	4.54
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Pat Underwood ('79-'83, 1 WAR*)	1.7	115	20.9%*	6.3%*	1.57*	4.52*
Alec Mills ('23)	1.3	86	19.3%	7.2%	1.50	5.00