Grades · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 5 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 10.7% | 14.3% | -3.6% | 10.7% | 7.50 | 9.89 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Tigers East | 5 | 0 | 6 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 10.7% | 14.3% | -3.6% | 10.7% | 7.50 | 10.60 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 72 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 21.8% | 6.1% | 15.6% | 1.7% | 3.47 | 2.99 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 60 | 248 | 72 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 29.0% | 5.2% | 23.8% | 1.6% | 3.47 | 2.21 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 39 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 43 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.80 | 5.71 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 39 | 0 | 54 | 235 | 43 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.3% | 5.1% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 4.80 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 1 | 66 | 272 | 60 | 13 | 5 | 3% | 1.9 | 17.4% | 5.3% | 12.1% | 3.2% | 3.66 | 4.03 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 1 | 66 | 272 | 60 | 13 | 5 | 3% | 1.9 | 22.1% | 4.8% | 17.3% | 1.8% | 3.66 | 2.86 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 7 | 87 | 364 | 101 | 22 | 12 | 27% | 3.3 | 22.7% | 6.6% | 16.1% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 3.90 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 7 | 87 | 364 | 101 | 22 | 12 | 27% | 3.3 | 27.7% | 6.0% | 21.7% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 3.33 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 19 | 11 | 66 | 281 | 57 | 23 | 11 | 58% | 3.5 | 18.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 4.64 | 5.12 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 15.0% | 3.5% | 3.98 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 39 | 165 | 34 | 9 | 6 | 100% | 6.5 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 15.0% | 3.5% | 3.98 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 105 | 446 | 91 | 32 | 17 | — | — | 20.4% | 7.3% | 13.2% | 3.7% | 4.39 | 4.70 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 47 | 198 | 91 | 32 | 17 | — | — | 45.9% | 16.3% | 29.6% | 8.4% | 9.81 | 5.91 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 62 | 17 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 5.9% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 60 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 6.3% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 57 | 18 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 59 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 5.9% | 15.2% | 3.4% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 57 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 6.3% | 14.9% | 3.5% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 54 | 17 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 14.4% | 3.6% | 4.45 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 190 | 6 | 237 | 998 | 209 | 62 | 35 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 6.2% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.02 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 161 | 5 | 200 | 843 | 177 | 52 | 30 | 3% | 1.2 | 21.0% | 6.2% | 14.8% | 3.5% | 4.26 | 4.02 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 163 | 19 | 339 | 1428 | 271 | 96 | 54 | 12% | 2.1 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 4.30 | 4.42 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 96 | 11 | 200 | 842 | 160 | 57 | 32 | 12% | 2.1 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 4.30 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jack Anderson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.24 | 21.1% | 5.4% | 3.4% | — | 4.40 | 21.1% | 14.8% | 200 | +0.16 | — | — | — |
| Reinier Roibal R 2026 · 3.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.07 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | .262 | 4.33 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 35 | +1.26 | 3.07 | 133 | 84 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 82 |
| Jack Dallas R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 18.9% | 6.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 5.11 | 20.4% | 15.3% | 41 | +1.57 | 3.08 | 210 | 79 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2028 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 79 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2027 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .272 | 3.71 | 13.1% | 5.2% | 43 | +0.32 | 3.39 | 145 | 77 |
| Jonathan Aro R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 25.3% | 6.9% | 3.6% | .252 | 3.60 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 108 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 323 | 77 |
| Jackson Rose R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.55 | 21.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.88 | 24.7% | 10.0% | 26 | +1.33 | 3.55 | 147 | 77 |
| Stephen Perakslis R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.17 | 21.3% | 8.2% | 1.5% | .313 | 5.36 | 11.8% | 5.9% | 42 | +2.19 | 3.17 | 211 | 77 |
| Jake Curtis R 2024 · 3.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.34 | 19.3% | 6.5% | 1.9% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 105 | 77 |
| John Brebbia R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .346 | 3.14 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.89 | 2.81 | 574 | 77 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.38 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 3.5% | .296 | 3.31 | 16.1% | 8.7% | 64 | -1.07 | 3.31 | 222 | 77 |
| Derek Gordon R 2025 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 77 |
| Carlos Navas R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 3.4% | .271 | 6.98 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 44 | +2.90 | 2.94 | 385 | 77 |
| Andrew Kittredge R 2026 · 3.22 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.22 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 2.2% | .353 | 2.97 | 25.6% | 19.7% | 255 | -0.25 | 2.47 | 667 | 76 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 76 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.41 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 368 | 76 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.78 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .318 | 3.31 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.47 | 2.46 | 362 | 76 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 76 |
| Ryan Eades R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.21 | 22.4% | 7.4% | 1.9% | .352 | 4.50 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 64 | +1.29 | 3.21 | 451 | 76 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.55 | 20.1% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .302 | 4.35 | 30.2% | 17.3% | 22 | -0.20 | 3.26 | 139 | 76 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 62 | 21.1% | 6.1% | 1.34 | 4.34 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Jarlín García ('22) | 5 | 61 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 1.33 | 3.79 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |