Kelvin Cáceres — OGILVIE

Kelvin Cáceres P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 205 lbs AA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 21 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%20.7%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

FB-0.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	14	10	47	203	32	18	5	71%	3.4	10.7%	11.1%	-0.4%	3.4%	4.98	5.49	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	14	10	47	203	32	18	5	71%	3.4	15.8%	8.9%	6.9%	2.5%	4.98	4.27	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Angels	10	6	35	159	34	26	1	60%	3.5	14.5%	20.4%	-5.9%	0.9%	3.82	4.94	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Angels	10	6	35	159	34	26	1	60%	3.5	21.4%	16.4%	5.0%	0.6%	3.82	3.75	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	8	48	241	65	47	2	50%	3.0	18.9%	23.6%	-4.7%	1.0%	6.19	5.04	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	8	48	241	65	47	2	50%	3.0	27.0%	19.5%	7.5%	0.8%	6.19	3.87	—
2022	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	36	5	77	340	117	54	5	14%	2.1	25.5%	18.7%	6.7%	2.2%	3.84	4.50	—
2022	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	36	5	77	340	117	54	5	14%	2.1	34.4%	15.9%	18.5%	1.5%	3.84	3.01	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	54	0	56	252	86	31	3	0%	1.0	27.0%	13.8%	13.2%	2.3%	4.18	3.85	+0.5
2023	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	54	0	56	252	86	31	3	0%	1.0	34.1%	12.3%	21.8%	1.2%	4.18	2.39	+1.5
2025	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	30	0	36	179	42	27	2	0%	1.2	19.0%	16.6%	2.4%	1.3%	5.50	4.31	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	30	0	36	179	42	27	2	0%	1.2	19.0%	16.6%	2.4%	1.3%	5.50	4.31	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Rocket City Trash Pandas	30	0	36	179	42	27	2	0%	1.2	23.5%	15.1%	8.4%	1.1%	5.50	3.74	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			2	0	1	8	1	2	0	0%	0.7	12.5%	25.0%	-12.5%	0.0%	6.75	6.10	-0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	LAA	20	0	21	89	18	12	3	0%	1.1	20.7%	14.0%	6.7%	2.8%	5.06	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	LAA	20	0	21	88	18	12	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.7%	7.1%	2.9%	5.04	5.07	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	LAA	8	0	8	34	7	5	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	13.7%	7.1%	2.9%	5.04	5.07	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	41	8	7	1	0%	1.0	19.2%	15.9%	3.3%	2.4%	5.29	4.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	0	200	896	175	153	22	0%	1.0	19.2%	15.9%	3.3%	2.4%	5.29	4.79	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		160	29	300	1374	279	240	26	18%	1.9	20.3%	17.5%	2.8%	1.9%	4.66	4.65	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		107	19	200	917	186	160	18	18%	1.9	20.3%	17.5%	2.8%	1.9%	4.66	4.65	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelvin Cáceres (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	20.7%	14.0%	2.8%	—	5.07	20.8%	7.1%	21	+0.01	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	78
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	78
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	77
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	77
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	77
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	76
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	75
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	75
Jake Stinnett R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	27	SW	4.23	21.1%	12.2%	2.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	356	75
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	75
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	75
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	75
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	75
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	75
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	75
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	74
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	74
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	74
Travis Hissong R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	26	SU	4.17	20.3%	13.5%	2.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	122	74