Victor Vodnik — OGILVIE

Victor Vodnik P Miami Marlins

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 216 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.22

FIP4.24

K%19.8%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%7.7%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.5

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p1016.3%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

SL+1.3 (35%)

SI (3%)

CU (5%)

CT-0.8 (0%)

FB-1.2 (49%)

CH-1.5 (15%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	4	0	5	23	9	1	1	0%	1.2	39.1%	4.3%	34.8%	4.3%	9.64	2.73	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	4	0	5	23	9	1	1	0%	1.2	39.1%	4.3%	34.8%	4.3%	9.64	2.67	—
2019	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	23	3	67	274	69	24	1	13%	2.9	18.6%	10.3%	8.3%	0.6%	2.94	3.14	—
2019	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	23	3	67	274	69	24	1	13%	2.9	25.2%	8.8%	16.4%	0.4%	2.94	2.31	—
2021	21	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	11	11	34	150	41	22	5	100%	3.1	22.1%	16.1%	6.0%	4.6%	5.35	5.82	—
2021	21	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	11	11	34	150	41	22	5	100%	3.1	27.3%	14.7%	12.7%	3.3%	5.35	4.56	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	35	149	47	19	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	13.9%	10.1%	1.9%	2.34	3.85	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	35	149	47	19	2	0%	1.1	31.5%	12.8%	18.8%	1.3%	2.34	2.78	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	62	275	81	33	5	0%	1.3	27.0%	14.1%	12.9%	1.2%	4.04	3.26	+1.0
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	62	275	81	33	5	0%	1.3	27.0%	14.1%	12.9%	1.2%	4.04	3.26	+1.0
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	62	275	81	33	5	0%	1.3	29.5%	12.0%	17.5%	1.8%	4.04	3.13	+1.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	75	323	67	36	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	1.9%	4.22	3.87	+0.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	75	323	67	36	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	1.9%	4.22	3.87	+0.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	75	323	67	36	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	11.1%	9.6%	2.2%	4.22	3.97	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	52	223	51	25	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	1.7%	3.27	3.50	+0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	52	223	51	25	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	1.7%	3.27	3.50	+0.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	52	223	51	25	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	1.8%	3.27	3.58	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			169	0	184	812	164	91	14	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	1.7%	4.45	3.79	+1.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	49	0	53	240	42	29	3	0%	1.1	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	1.4%	5.26	3.99	+0.4
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	49	0	53	240	42	29	3	0%	1.1	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	1.4%	5.26	3.99	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	MIA	2	0	2	7	4	1	0	0%	1.0	57.1%	14.3%	42.9%	0.0%	0.00	0.08	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	MIA	47	0	51	233	38	28	3	0%	1.1	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	1.3%	5.47	3.95	+0.4
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	MIA	47	0	51	233	38	28	3	0%	1.1	16.3%	12.0%	4.3%	1.3%	5.47	3.95	+0.4
ROS	26	MLB MLE	MIA	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.0%	7.7%	2.3%	4.22	4.24	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	MIA	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.8%	12.0%	7.7%	2.3%	4.22	4.24	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	59	265	47	32	4	—	—	17.7%	12.1%	5.6%	1.4%	5.16	4.01	+0.4
FULL	26	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	57	240	47	32	4	—	—	19.5%	13.3%	6.2%	1.5%	5.34	3.96	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	58	35	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	4.44	4.47	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	63	0	66	278	56	34	6	0%	1.0	20.2%	12.3%	7.9%	2.2%	4.51	4.55	0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	60	0	63	266	52	33	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	2.4%	4.63	4.71	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIA	62	0	65	274	56	33	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	4.44	4.47	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	60	0	63	266	54	33	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	12.3%	7.9%	2.2%	4.51	4.55	0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	57	0	60	253	50	32	6	0%	1.1	19.6%	12.5%	7.1%	2.4%	4.63	4.71	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		352	0	377	1625	327	191	32	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	2.0%	4.48	3.98	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	863	174	101	17	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.7%	8.4%	2.0%	4.48	3.98	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		285	14	383	1657	359	203	29	5%	1.3	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	1.7%	3.97	3.77	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	7	200	866	188	106	15	5%	1.3	21.7%	12.3%	9.4%	1.7%	3.97	3.77	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Vodnik (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	23.5%	12.1%	2.5%	—	4.57	20.1%	7.8%	197	+0.20	—	—	—
Brad Goldberg R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	26	SU	3.83	18.1%	10.8%	1.6%	.269	3.87	23.3%	7.2%	89	+0.04	3.14	197	78
Hunter Bigge R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	23.1%	14.6%	1.9%	.316	4.74	26.0%	14.8%	101	+0.72	3.44	229	77
Hansel Robles R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SU	4.93	22.1%	11.6%	4.1%	.267	3.60	25.5%	17.6%	145	-1.33	2.67	469	77
Nefi Ogando R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	17.0%	11.6%	1.4%	.266	4.11	14.7%	3.1%	40	+0.24	3.87	103	76
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	76
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	75
Tyler Bashlor R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	20.7%	11.7%	3.7%	.258	4.10	23.7%	13.0%	38	-0.78	2.55	253	75
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	75
Bruce Rondón R 2017 · 3.46 FIP	26	SU	3.46	24.6%	13.7%	1.3%	.364	3.31	26.0%	9.8%	30	-0.15	3.31	184	75
JC Ramírez R 2015 · 3.75 FIP	26	SU	3.75	16.6%	8.6%	1.8%	.285	4.41	17.1%	10.0%	226	+0.66	3.75	369	75
Thyago Vieira R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	26	SU	4.33	21.1%	10.8%	3.0%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	311	74
Robert Stock R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	17.2%	11.1%	0.5%	.293	3.70	23.3%	12.1%	120	+0.39	2.74	378	74
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.55	21.2%	-0.6%	51	+0.46	4.09	130	74
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	74
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	74
José A. Váldez R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	22.2%	13.1%	2.9%	.205	4.22	19.6%	8.3%	211	-0.28	4.02	328	73
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	73
Scott Oberg R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	26	SU	3.19	22.9%	9.1%	1.6%	.260	2.92	23.8%	16.4%	188	-0.27	2.54	302	73
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	73
Sean Reynolds R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	19.6%	15.8%	1.7%	.315	4.29	20.2%	6.6%	109	-0.10	3.62	258	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	21.0%	12.2%	0.89	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64