Victor Vodnik

P Miami Marlins

Age 27 RHP 6'0" / 216 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	65	75	4.22	3.97	20.7%	11.1%	0.5	K 20.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.87
2025	25	MIX2 levels	54	52	3.27	3.58	22.9%	11.2%	0.6	K 22.8% · BB 11.2% · FIP 3.50
2026	26	MIX2 levels	55	61	4.75	3.79	17.6%	12.1%	0.5	K 16.5% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.88
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIA	44	46	4.46	4.46	21.0%	12.4%	0.0
2028PROJ95% MLB	28	MLBMIA	25	26	4.51	4.54	20.8%	12.6%	0.0
2029PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBMIA	16	17	4.62	4.70	20.3%	12.8%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

xwOBA vs50

K%11

Form5.14 ERA (proj 4.46) · K 17.2% (proj 21.0%) · BB 14.1% (proj 12.4%) ▼ last 60d · 14 IP through Oct 27

CompsShintaro Fujinami (age 29) · Javy Guerra (age 27) · Seth Halvorsen (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.46

FIP4.46

K%21.0%

BB%12.4%

K-BB%8.6%

Proj IP46

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9098.6

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p1116.5%

xwOBA vs

p500.312

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	4	0	5	23	9	1	1	0%	1.2	39.1%	4.3%	34.8%	4.3%	9.64	2.73	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	4	0	5	23	9	1	1	0%	1.2	39.1%	4.3%	34.8%	4.3%	9.64	2.67	—
2019	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	23	3	67	274	69	24	1	13%	2.9	18.6%	10.3%	8.3%	0.6%	2.94	3.14	—
2019	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	23	3	67	274	69	24	1	13%	2.9	25.2%	8.8%	16.4%	0.4%	2.94	2.31	—
2021	21	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	11	11	34	150	41	22	5	100%	3.1	22.1%	16.1%	6.0%	4.6%	5.35	5.82	—
2021	21	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	11	11	34	150	41	22	5	100%	3.1	27.3%	14.7%	12.7%	3.3%	5.35	4.56	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	0	35	149	47	19	2	0%	1.1	24.0%	13.9%	10.1%	1.9%	2.34	3.85	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	0	35	149	47	19	2	0%	1.1	31.5%	12.8%	18.8%	1.3%	2.34	2.78	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	62	275	81	33	5	0%	1.3	27.0%	14.1%	12.9%	1.2%	4.04	3.26	+1.0
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	62	275	81	33	5	0%	1.3	29.5%	12.0%	17.5%	1.8%	4.04	3.13	+1.1
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	75	323	67	36	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	1.9%	4.22	3.87	+0.6
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	75	323	67	36	7	0%	1.1	20.3%	11.2%	9.1%	1.9%	4.22	3.87	+0.6
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	75	323	67	36	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	11.1%	9.6%	2.2%	4.22	3.97	+0.5
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	52	223	51	25	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	1.7%	3.27	3.50	+0.7
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	52	223	51	25	4	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.2%	11.6%	1.7%	3.27	3.50	+0.7
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	52	223	51	25	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.2%	11.7%	1.8%	3.27	3.58	+0.6
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	61	273	48	33	3	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	1.2%	4.75	3.88	+0.5
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	61	273	48	33	3	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	1.2%	4.75	3.88	+0.5
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	61	273	48	33	3	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.1%	5.5%	1.1%	4.75	3.79	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			175	0	192	845	170	95	14	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.2%	8.9%	1.7%	4.32	3.76	+1.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIA	44	0	46	194	41	24	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	12.4%	8.6%	2.1%	4.46	4.46	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIA	26	0	27	115	24	14	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	12.6%	8.3%	2.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	MIA	17	0	17	73	15	9	2	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.8%	7.5%	2.4%	4.62	4.70	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIA	25	0	26	110	23	14	2	0%	1.0	20.8%	12.6%	8.3%	2.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	MIA	16	0	17	72	15	9	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.8%	7.5%	2.4%	4.62	4.70	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		215	0	234	1024	207	118	18	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.5%	8.7%	1.8%	4.36	3.82	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	0	200	875	177	101	15	0%	1.1	20.2%	11.5%	8.7%	1.8%	4.36	3.82	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		291	14	390	1690	365	207	29	5%	1.3	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	1.7%	3.92	3.76	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	7	200	866	187	106	15	5%	1.3	21.6%	12.3%	9.3%	1.7%	3.92	3.76	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAHartford Yard Goats · 47 IPFIP 2.47 → 3.26 (+0.78)K% 33.3% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.810	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.82%	—	×1.100	14.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.03%	÷1.040	×1.200	1.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 3.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 7 IPFIP 8.50 → 8.62 (+0.12)K% 11.1% → 9.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	11.11%	—	×0.860	9.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×0.900	12.50%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷1.062	×1.100	8.63%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 112).

Result: FIP 8.50 → 8.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 28 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.85 (+0.47)K% 27.3% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.880	24.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.22%	—	×1.050	13.88%
HR / BF /BF	1.65%	÷0.981	×1.100	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 96).

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMississippi Braves · 7 IPFIP 0.23 → 1.17 (+0.94)K% 50.0% → 40.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.00%	—	×0.810	40.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.71%	—	×1.100	11.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.927	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.23 → 1.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAMississippi Braves · 34 IPFIP 4.48 → 5.82 (+1.34)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.33%	—	×0.810	22.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.67%	—	×1.100	16.13%
HR / BF /BF	3.33%	÷0.861	×1.200	4.64%

Result: FIP 4.48 → 5.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ARome Braves · 67 IPFIP 2.28 → 3.14 (+0.86)K% 25.2% → 18.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.18%	—	×0.740	18.64%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.76%	—	×1.180	10.34%
HR / BF /BF	0.36%	÷0.851	×1.300	0.56%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 70).

Result: FIP 2.28 → 3.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 ROKGCL Braves · 5 IPFIP 2.73 → 4.88 (+2.15)K% 39.1% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.13%	—	×0.680	26.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.35%	—	×1.250	5.43%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷1.000	×1.400	6.09%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.73 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Victor Vodnik (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.0%	12.4%	2.1%	—	4.60	20.6%	8.0%	45	+0.14	—	—	—
Shintaro Fujinami R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	23.2%	12.3%	2.5%	.290	4.49	22.0%	0.2%	51	+0.40	4.09	130	75
Javy Guerra R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	27	SU	4.44	18.2%	12.7%	2.3%	.256	5.14	17.2%	4.1%	37	+0.70	3.33	183	75
Seth Halvorsen R 2024 · 3.82 FIP	24	SU	3.82	21.0%	12.5%	1.7%	.330	4.30	21.3%	11.0%	96	+0.48	3.82	131	73
Chris Beck R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	27	SU	4.82	17.4%	12.2%	3.0%	.305	5.28	18.1%	9.3%	41	+0.46	3.22	313	73
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	72
Yoervis Medina R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	27	SU	4.40	18.2%	11.6%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	186	72
Brian Ellington R 2017 · 4.75 FIP	26	SU	4.75	25.5%	14.9%	3.5%	.283	5.61	22.4%	5.3%	29	+0.86	2.75	233	72
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	72
Jose Arredondo R 2011 · 3.89 FIP	27	SU	3.89	21.2%	11.5%	2.1%	.259	4.00	23.6%	11.4%	61	+0.11	3.01	220	72
Jake Barrett R 2018 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	26.1%	13.0%	1.4%	.266	1.48	29.8%	22.7%	15	-1.83	1.48	230	72
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	71
José Ramírez R 2017 · 4.56 FIP	27	SU	4.56	21.7%	10.9%	3.5%	.218	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	206	71
Tyler Bashlor R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	26	SU	4.88	20.7%	11.7%	3.7%	.258	4.10	23.7%	13.0%	38	-0.78	2.55	253	71
Robert Stock R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	27	SU	3.31	17.2%	11.1%	0.5%	.293	3.70	23.3%	12.1%	120	+0.39	2.74	378	70
Ramon E Ramirez R 2009 · 4.10 FIP	27	SU	4.10	17.3%	9.3%	2.3%	.252	3.56	19.5%	10.5%	202	-0.54	2.37	568	70
Brad Goldberg R 2017 · 4.38 FIP	27	SU	4.38	18.4%	15.4%	1.6%	.331	3.14	30.3%	13.3%	36	-1.24	3.14	197	70
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2011 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	22.1%	9.6%	1.5%	.253	3.18	22.9%	13.4%	218	-0.10	2.72	398	70
Logan Ondrusek R 2012 · 4.83 FIP	27	SU	4.83	16.0%	11.1%	3.0%	.254	3.67	22.5%	15.4%	96	-1.16	3.57	409	70
Hansel Robles R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	24.4%	9.9%	3.6%	.293	3.48	25.9%	17.2%	158	-0.82	2.67	469	69
Rocky Biddle R 2003 · 4.72 FIP	27	SU	4.72	16.4%	10.6%	3.0%	.264	5.15	14.0%	6.3%	78	+0.43	4.47	379	69

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	20.3%	12.0%	0.71	4.38
Wayne Gomes ('02)	1.8	61	17.2%	11.6%	0.81	4.60
Horacio Pina ('68-'78, 2 WAR*)	2.2	62	20.7%*	11.2%*	0.84*	4.01*
Marc Rzepczynski ('18)	2.2	48	21.6%	10.8%	0.75	3.89
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Charlie Kerfeld ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	1.0	50	22.3%*	12.7%*	0.72*	4.84*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*