Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 10 | 9 | 31 | 121 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 90% | 3.1 | 15.7% | 6.2% | 9.5% | 1.2% | 1.76 | 3.19 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Orioles | 10 | 9 | 31 | 121 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 90% | 3.1 | 23.1% | 5.0% | 18.2% | 0.8% | 1.76 | 2.28 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 21 | 15 | 95 | 402 | 122 | 33 | 5 | 71% | 4.5 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 1.9% | 2.93 | 3.46 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | 21 | 15 | 95 | 402 | 122 | 33 | 5 | 71% | 4.5 | 30.3% | 8.2% | 22.1% | 1.2% | 2.93 | 2.26 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 108 | 438 | 120 | 26 | 12 | 87% | 4.7 | 21.5% | 6.7% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 3.18 | 3.60 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 20 | 108 | 438 | 120 | 26 | 12 | 87% | 4.7 | 27.4% | 5.9% | 21.5% | 2.7% | 3.18 | 3.04 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 120 | 531 | 144 | 47 | 10 | 96% | 4.6 | 22.5% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 4.42 | 3.36 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 25 | 120 | 531 | 144 | 47 | 10 | 96% | 4.6 | 27.1% | 8.9% | 18.3% | 1.9% | 4.42 | 2.96 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 131 | 610 | 150 | 69 | 15 | 97% | 4.5 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 5.65 | 4.21 | +1.8 |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 28 | 131 | 610 | 150 | 69 | 15 | 97% | 4.5 | 24.6% | 11.3% | 13.3% | 2.5% | 5.65 | 3.88 | +2.3 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 23 | 92 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 16.4% | 10.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.86 | 5.84 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 7 | 7 | 23 | 92 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 3.3 | 26.1% | 6.5% | 19.6% | 2.2% | 3.86 | 2.93 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Milwaukee Brewers | 31 | 0 | 40 | 171 | 63 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.8% | 7.3% | 24.5% | 0.8% | 2.50 | 1.76 | +1.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIL | 29 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | MIL | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.51 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 71 | 302 | 88 | 29 | 6 | — | — | 29.2% | 9.6% | 19.6% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 3.08 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 37 | 155 | 88 | 29 | 6 | — | — | 57.0% | 18.7% | 38.3% | 4.1% | 6.52 | 2.93 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 54 | 227 | 45 | 27 | 8 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 9 | 9 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.1% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 50 | 210 | 41 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 5.24 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 43 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 8.2% | 3.5% | 5.08 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.1% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 5.14 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 39 | 23 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.6% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 5.24 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 67 | 33 | 218 | 952 | 192 | 111 | 35 | 49% | 3.3 | 20.2% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 4.88 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 30 | 200 | 873 | 176 | 102 | 32 | 49% | 3.3 | 20.2% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.45 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 147 | 104 | 547 | 2365 | 529 | 220 | 53 | 71% | 3.7 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 3.90 | 3.61 | +11.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 38 | 200 | 864 | 193 | 81 | 19 | 71% | 3.7 | 22.3% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 2.2% | 3.90 | 3.61 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Drew Rom (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 17.6% | 11.7% | 3.5% | — | 5.25 | 19.9% | 8.2% | 156 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Irwin Delgado L 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.49 | 14.4% | 9.6% | 2.5% | .349 | 3.45 | 16.2% | 7.6% | 237 | -1.04 | 3.42 | 383 | 74 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 71 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2027 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 70 |
| Zac Lowther L 2026 · 5.76 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.76 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 5.1% | .436 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.02 | 375 | 69 |
| Matt Walker L 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.62 | 12.7% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 156 | 69 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .268 | 5.21 | 12.2% | 0.1% | 54 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 232 | 68 |
| Liam Sullivan L 2024 · 5.49 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.49 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.8% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 121 | 68 |
| Chris Reed L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.84 | 16.4% | 9.8% | 3.4% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.84 | 137 | 67 |
| Jack Snodgrass L 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.77 | 12.6% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .278 | 5.20 | 15.7% | 5.6% | 45 | +0.43 | 4.77 | 118 | 67 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 6.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 6.01 | 15.5% | 11.7% | 5.0% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.42 | 205 | 67 |
| Sean Nolin L 2025 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 14.5% | 9.5% | 3.6% | .273 | 3.62 | 20.7% | 11.3% | 40 | -1.47 | 3.62 | 309 | 67 |
| Drake Britton L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 67 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 67 |
| Tommy Vail L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.18 | 19.7% | 16.4% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 151 | 66 |
| Nick Allgeyer L 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.30 | 18.6% | 9.8% | 4.6% | .284 | 6.21 | 19.3% | 5.2% | 81 | +0.91 | 3.58 | 390 | 66 |
| Connor Oliver L 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.91 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 3.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 200 | 66 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.01 | 14.7% | 11.1% | 3.2% | .338 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 381 | 66 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.77 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.77 | 154 | 65 |
| Michael Sansone L 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.64 | 17.0% | 9.3% | 5.1% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 255 | 65 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 1.38 | 5.15 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |