Drew Rom

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX2 levels	29	28	131	5.65	3.88	24.6%	11.3%	2.4	K 21.9% · BB 10.5% · FIP 4.09
2025	25	MIX2 levels	7	7	23	3.86	2.93	26.1%	6.5%	—	K 16.0% · BB 9.2% · FIP 5.26
2026	26	MIX2 levels	53	0	64	2.95	1.83	30.1%	7.0%	2.1	K 26.8% · BB 6.5% · FIP 2.09
2027PROJ	27	MLBOAK	50	0	52	4.25	4.32	20.3%	8.2%	0.1
2028PROJ84% MLB	28	MLBOAK	43	0	45	4.35	4.41	20.5%	8.5%	0.1
2029PROJ88% MLB	29	MLBOAK	38	0	40	4.47	4.56	20.1%	8.7%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 4.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%38

xwOBA vs21

FB Velo10

CompsEric Stults (age 27) · Hector Hernandez (age 28) · Yohan Flande (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.25

FIP4.32

K%20.3%

BB%8.2%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p1018.9%

p3820.5%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	GCL Orioles	10	9	31	121	28	6	1	90%	3.1	15.7%	6.2%	9.5%	1.2%	1.76	3.19	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	GCL Orioles	10	9	31	121	28	6	1	90%	3.1	23.1%	5.0%	18.2%	0.8%	1.76	2.28	—
2019	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	15	95	402	122	33	5	71%	4.5	22.5%	9.7%	12.8%	1.7%	2.93	3.38	—
2019	19	A RAW	Delmarva Shorebirds	21	15	95	402	122	33	5	71%	4.5	30.3%	8.2%	22.1%	1.2%	2.93	2.26	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	20	108	438	120	26	12	87%	4.7	21.5%	6.7%	14.8%	3.0%	3.18	3.75	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	20	108	438	120	26	12	87%	4.7	27.4%	5.9%	21.5%	2.7%	3.18	3.04	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	25	120	531	144	47	10	96%	4.6	22.5%	9.6%	13.0%	2.0%	4.42	3.48	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	25	120	531	144	47	10	96%	4.6	27.1%	8.9%	18.3%	1.9%	4.42	2.96	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	131	610	150	69	15	97%	4.5	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	2.7%	5.65	4.09	+2.0
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	131	610	150	69	15	97%	4.5	24.6%	11.3%	13.3%	2.5%	5.65	3.88	+2.4
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	23	92	24	6	2	100%	3.3	16.0%	9.2%	6.9%	4.3%	3.86	5.26	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	7	23	92	24	6	2	100%	3.3	16.0%	9.2%	6.9%	4.3%	3.86	5.26	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	7	23	92	24	6	2	100%	3.3	26.1%	6.5%	19.6%	2.2%	3.86	2.93	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	64	272	82	19	2	0%	1.2	26.8%	6.5%	20.3%	0.8%	2.95	2.09	+1.9
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	64	272	82	19	2	0%	1.2	26.8%	6.5%	20.3%	0.8%	2.95	2.09	+1.9
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	64	272	82	19	2	0%	1.2	30.1%	7.0%	23.2%	0.7%	2.95	1.83	+2.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			26	8	51	253	49	25	8	31%	2.0	19.4%	9.9%	9.5%	3.2%	7.19	4.68	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	OAK	50	0	52	220	45	18	6	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.2%	12.1%	2.8%	4.25	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	51	0	54	227	46	19	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.41	+0.1
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	44	0	46	193	39	17	6	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	43	0	45	190	39	16	5	0%	1.0	20.5%	8.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.35	4.41	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	38	0	40	169	34	15	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	3.0%	4.47	4.56	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	8	137	614	122	56	19	7%	1.3	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	3.0%	5.45	4.25	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		157	12	200	897	178	82	28	7%	1.3	19.9%	9.1%	10.8%	3.0%	5.45	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		169	104	572	2466	544	217	54	62%	3.4	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	2.2%	3.89	3.56	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	36	200	863	190	76	19	62%	3.4	22.1%	8.8%	13.3%	2.2%	3.89	3.56	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 46 IPFIP 1.36 → 1.71 (+0.35)K% 34.4% → 29.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.39%	—	×0.860	29.58%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.88%	—	×0.900	6.19%
HR / BF /BF	0.53%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.58%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.36 → 1.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 14 IPFIP 4.67 → 5.26 (+0.59)K% 18.6% → 16.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.64%	—	×0.860	16.03%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.17%	—	×0.900	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	3.39%	÷0.869	×1.100	4.29%

Result: FIP 4.67 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 9 IPFIP -0.23 → 0.64 (+0.86)K% 39.4% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.39%	—	×0.740	29.15%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.973	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 95).

Result: FIP -0.23 → 0.64, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 97 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.60 (+0.32)K% 26.8% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.82%	—	×0.860	23.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.36%	—	×0.900	10.23%
HR / BF /BF	1.82%	÷0.955	×1.100	2.09%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AABowie Baysox · 82 IPFIP 3.12 → 3.70 (+0.58)K% 27.6% → 22.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.60%	—	×0.810	22.35%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.92%	—	×1.100	8.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.46%	÷1.170	×1.200	2.52%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 134).

Result: FIP 3.12 → 3.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAANorfolk Tides · 38 IPFIP 2.61 → 2.99 (+0.38)K% 26.1% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.06%	—	×0.880	22.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.91%	—	×1.050	11.45%
HR / BF /BF	0.61%	÷0.970	×1.100	0.69%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.61 → 2.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Aberdeen IronBirds · 68 IPFIP 2.84 → 3.71 (+0.87)K% 26.5% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.55%	—	×0.770	20.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.18%	—	×1.150	7.11%
HR / BF /BF	2.18%	÷1.041	×1.250	2.62%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 108).

Result: FIP 2.84 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABowie Baysox · 40 IPFIP 3.38 → 3.82 (+0.44)K% 28.8% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.83%	—	×0.810	23.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.52%	—	×1.100	6.07%
HR / BF /BF	3.68%	÷1.258	×1.200	3.51%

Result: FIP 3.38 → 3.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Rom (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	20.3%	8.2%	2.8%	—	4.48	20.3%	11.7%	100	+0.16	—	—	—
Eric Stults L 2007 · 4.28 FIP	27	SW	4.28	16.8%	8.4%	2.8%	.349	4.14	16.2%	7.2%	89	-0.14	3.50	773	74
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	72
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	71
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	70
Andrew Barbosa L 2015 · 3.14 FIP	27	SW	3.14	22.8%	12.2%	0.8%	.292	3.73	20.2%	11.3%	127	+0.59	2.70	175	68
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	67
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	67
T.J. Sikkema L 2024 · 3.57 FIP	26	SP-	3.57	18.5%	6.0%	2.3%	.282	4.10	16.1%	7.2%	87	+0.53	3.57	300	67
Tommy Phelps L 2003 · 3.39 FIP	29	SW	3.39	15.6%	8.0%	1.1%	.322	4.47	16.9%	8.9%	57	+1.08	3.39	120	64
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	64
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	63
Andy Otero L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	29	SP-	3.89	24.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.298	4.36	14.5%	5.6%	68	+0.47	2.86	200	63
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	62
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	62
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	62
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	62
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	61
Brian Johnson L 2018 · 4.59 FIP	27	SW	4.59	20.0%	8.8%	3.8%	.300	4.73	17.1%	7.0%	116	+0.14	3.39	506	61
Austin Hamilton L 2019 · 4.02 FIP	25	SW	4.02	17.3%	7.9%	2.5%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	135	61
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	54	20.1%	8.9%	1.14	5.01
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Jacob Barnes ('25)	1.7	48	22.0%	9.2%	1.15	4.79
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
John Morris ('66-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	58	18.3%*	8.2%*	1.00*	4.74*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*