Rafael Marcano

P FCL Twins

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	A+PHI	23	20	93	3.95	3.35	24.5%	10.6%	—	K 18.9% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.47
2024	24	MIX2 levels	30	1	50	4.65	4.35	22.1%	16.4%	—	K 17.5% · BB 15.3% · FIP 3.88
2025	25	ROKMIN	1	0	0	27.00	6.10	25.0%	25.0%	—	K 25.0% · BB 25.0% · FIP 4.16
2027PROJ	27	MLBMIN	25	0	26	4.71	4.71	21.9%	11.6%	-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB	28	MLBMIN	9	0	9	4.72	4.76	21.9%	11.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMark Manfredi Sr. (age 24) · Dan Meyer (age 27) · Tommy Vail (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%21.9%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP26

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	9	1	13	57	11	5	0	11%	1.5	13.1%	11.0%	2.2%	0.0%	1.35	3.38	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	9	1	13	57	11	5	0	11%	1.5	19.3%	8.8%	10.5%	0.0%	1.35	2.58	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies East	9	4	23	101	24	7	1	44%	2.6	16.2%	8.7%	7.5%	1.4%	4.24	3.59	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies East	9	4	23	101	24	7	1	44%	2.6	23.8%	6.9%	16.8%	1.0%	4.24	2.50	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	8	57	253	72	27	5	40%	2.9	20.8%	13.4%	7.4%	2.2%	3.63	4.24	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	8	57	253	72	27	5	40%	2.9	28.5%	10.7%	17.8%	2.0%	3.63	3.14	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	65	295	73	31	5	76%	3.8	18.8%	12.2%	6.6%	2.4%	5.15	4.38	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	65	295	73	31	5	76%	3.8	24.7%	10.5%	14.2%	1.7%	5.15	3.29	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	20	93	396	97	42	7	87%	4.1	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	2.6%	3.95	4.47	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	23	20	93	396	97	42	7	87%	4.1	24.5%	10.6%	13.9%	1.8%	3.95	3.35	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	50	226	50	37	4	3%	1.7	17.5%	15.3%	2.2%	0.6%	4.65	3.88	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	50	226	50	37	4	3%	1.7	17.5%	15.3%	2.2%	0.6%	4.65	3.88	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	50	226	50	37	4	3%	1.7	22.1%	16.4%	5.8%	1.8%	4.65	4.35	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	4.16	—
2025	25	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	4.16	—
2025	25	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	1	0	0	4	1	1	0	0%	0.3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	6.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	MIN	25	0	26	110	24	13	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.6%	10.3%	2.9%	4.71	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	MIN	24	0	25	106	23	12	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.72	4.76	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	MIN	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.72	4.76	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.72	4.38	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	176	88	22	0%	1.1	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.72	4.38	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		109	47	302	1332	247	169	26	43%	2.8	18.6%	12.7%	5.9%	1.9%	4.20	4.19	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		72	31	200	881	164	112	17	43%	2.8	18.6%	12.7%	5.9%	1.9%	4.20	4.19	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Marcano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	21.9%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.76	21.9%	10.4%	25	+0.05	—	—	—
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	76
Dan Meyer L 2008 · 5.66 FIP	27	SW	5.66	15.2%	10.6%	4.5%	.315	3.73	23.1%	15.2%	58	-1.93	3.73	112	74
Tommy Vail L 2024 · 3.65 FIP	25	SW	3.65	27.5%	15.3%	1.7%	.237	5.19	19.5%	2.9%	99	+1.54	3.65	168	72
Aaron Rozek L 2023 · 4.87 FIP	27	SP-	4.87	17.4%	8.8%	3.9%	.311	4.34	16.7%	9.5%	356	-0.53	3.68	579	71
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	67
Eric Stults L 2007 · 4.28 FIP	27	SW	4.28	16.8%	8.4%	2.8%	.349	4.14	16.2%	7.2%	89	-0.14	3.50	773	67
Matt Whitehouse L 2018 · 4.55 FIP	27	SW	4.55	17.0%	12.8%	2.3%	.308	4.07	20.1%	9.2%	81	-0.48	3.37	353	67
Edgar Olmos L 2017 · 3.64 FIP	27	SW	3.64	18.9%	9.7%	1.7%	.252	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	203	67
Matt Tracy L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	27	SW	3.89	13.8%	8.3%	1.7%	.328	4.22	15.3%	5.5%	129	+0.33	3.24	298	66
Chris Reed L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	26	SW	4.67	16.4%	9.8%	3.1%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.67	137	66
Josh Outman L 2012 · 4.49 FIP	27	SW	4.49	21.6%	10.8%	3.4%	.339	3.46	22.0%	12.2%	82	-1.03	2.95	380	66
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	65
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	65
Mitch Stallings L 2021 · 5.48 FIP	26	SW	5.48	16.8%	11.5%	4.3%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.18	108	65
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	65
Garrett Williams L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP-	4.71	24.9%	14.2%	3.5%	.323	3.99	23.8%	2.8%	53	-0.72	3.37	470	65
Brad Mills L 2011 · 5.37 FIP	26	SP-	5.37	19.8%	12.1%	4.4%	.328	5.61	18.8%	7.9%	21	+0.24	4.22	243	64
Jake Drehoff L 2017 · 5.21 FIP	25	SW	5.21	16.8%	9.0%	4.4%	.418	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	153	64
Rito Lugo L 2022 · 4.04 FIP	26	SW	4.04	18.3%	7.3%	2.8%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	176	64
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.9%	11.5%	1.16	4.71
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*