John Beller prospect projection, MLE, ETA

John Beller P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 175 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 105113vR 121

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%22.9%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	21	19	80	369	98	44	6	90%	3.8	19.7%	14.1%	5.6%	2.3%	4.59	4.48	—
2021	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	21	19	80	369	98	44	6	90%	3.8	26.6%	11.9%	14.6%	1.6%	4.59	3.27	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	2	43	181	53	26	4	7%	1.5	22.9%	16.1%	6.8%	2.5%	4.43	4.57	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	2	43	181	53	26	4	7%	1.5	29.3%	14.4%	14.9%	2.2%	4.43	3.66	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	38	0	47	210	59	26	4	0%	1.2	21.6%	14.2%	7.4%	2.0%	4.18	4.16	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	38	0	47	210	59	26	4	0%	1.2	21.6%	14.2%	7.4%	2.0%	4.18	4.16	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	38	0	47	210	59	26	4	0%	1.2	28.1%	12.4%	15.7%	1.9%	4.18	3.35	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	11.3%	11.6%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	OAK	26	0	27	116	26	13	4	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.63	4.67	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	OAK	10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.63	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	42	10	5	1	0%	1.0	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.63	4.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	199	100	20	0%	1.1	22.8%	11.3%	11.5%	3.1%	4.63	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		87	21	170	760	159	111	17	24%	2.0	21.0%	14.6%	6.4%	2.2%	4.44	4.41	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	25	200	892	187	130	20	24%	2.0	21.0%	14.6%	6.4%	2.2%	4.44	4.41	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John Beller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	22.9%	11.3%	3.0%	—	4.67	22.8%	11.5%	27	+0.06	—	—	—
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	77
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	77
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.36 FIP	27	SU	4.36	19.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	75
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	74
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	74
Aaron Brown L 2019 · 4.04 FIP	27	SU	4.04	22.9%	13.5%	2.1%	.317	4.77	19.4%	6.7%	129	+0.73	4.04	269	74
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	74
Chris Narveson L 2009 · 4.01 FIP	27	SW	4.01	22.4%	7.3%	3.4%	.277	4.00	18.5%	10.0%	329	-0.01	4.00	625	74
Josh Outman L 2012 · 4.49 FIP	27	SW	4.49	21.6%	10.8%	3.4%	.339	3.46	22.0%	12.2%	82	-1.03	2.95	380	73
Ashur Tolliver L 2015 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	19.8%	12.8%	0.8%	.312	4.58	17.8%	3.7%	76	+1.09	3.49	134	73
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	73
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	73
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	73
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	72
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	72
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	72
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	72
Nick Hagadone L 2013 · 4.75 FIP	27	SU	4.75	22.6%	15.0%	3.0%	.253	3.34	25.9%	19.0%	51	-1.41	2.97	141	71
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	71
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.8%	11.3%	1.17	4.62
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43