Valentin Linarez

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 226 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	24	MIX2 levels	35	0	56	4.98	4.03	28.6%	12.1%	—	K 22.5% · BB 13.5% · FIP 5.24
2025	25	MIX2 levels	40	1	62	3.06	3.51	24.3%	11.0%	—	K 19.4% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.29
2026	26	MIX2 levels	15	0	16	5.51	6.04	22.5%	18.8%	—	K 19.3% · BB 19.7% · FIP 6.91
2027PROJ	27	MLBWSH	57	0	60	5.45	5.45	19.4%	14.9%	-0.6
2028PROJ38% MLB	28	MLBWSH	21	0	22	5.38	5.42	19.7%	14.5%	-0.2
2029PROJ56% MLB	29	MLBWSH	30	0	31	5.40	5.47	19.7%	14.3%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control40Command45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsGrant Black (age 27) · Luis Mateo (age 27) · Cameron Foster (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137129vR 120

ERA5.45

FIP5.45

K%19.4%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates 1	18	7	40	182	29	22	1	39%	2.2	10.8%	15.1%	-4.3%	0.8%	3.86	4.52	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates 1	18	7	40	182	29	22	1	39%	2.2	15.9%	12.1%	3.8%	0.5%	3.86	3.63	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates 1	12	12	55	224	55	14	0	100%	4.6	16.7%	7.8%	8.9%	0.0%	2.28	2.68	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates 1	12	12	55	224	55	14	0	100%	4.6	24.6%	6.2%	18.3%	0.0%	2.28	1.87	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	10	33	136	45	13	3	100%	3.3	25.8%	13.8%	12.1%	0.0%	3.27	2.66	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	10	33	136	45	13	3	100%	3.3	33.1%	9.6%	23.5%	2.2%	3.27	2.74	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	19	88	377	95	45	7	86%	4.0	18.9%	13.3%	5.5%	2.4%	3.97	4.50	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	19	88	377	95	45	7	86%	4.0	25.2%	11.9%	13.3%	1.9%	3.97	3.51	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	9	68	306	76	38	9	24%	1.8	19.3%	14.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.27	4.79	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	9	68	306	76	38	9	24%	1.8	24.8%	12.4%	12.4%	2.9%	5.27	4.26	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	56	248	71	30	8	0%	1.6	22.5%	13.5%	8.9%	4.2%	4.98	5.24	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	56	248	71	30	8	0%	1.6	22.5%	13.5%	8.9%	4.2%	4.98	5.24	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	56	248	71	30	8	0%	1.6	28.6%	12.1%	16.5%	3.2%	4.98	4.03	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	62	255	62	28	5	2%	1.5	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	2.3%	3.06	4.29	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	1	62	255	62	28	5	2%	1.5	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	2.3%	3.06	4.29	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	1	62	255	62	28	5	2%	1.5	24.3%	11.0%	13.3%	2.0%	3.06	3.51	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	16	80	18	15	3	0%	1.1	19.3%	19.7%	-0.4%	5.4%	5.51	6.91	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	16	80	18	15	3	0%	1.1	19.3%	19.7%	-0.4%	5.4%	5.51	6.91	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	16	80	18	15	3	0%	1.1	22.5%	18.8%	3.8%	3.8%	5.51	6.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	57	0	60	253	49	38	8	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.9%	4.5%	3.1%	5.45	5.45	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	55	0	58	244	48	35	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	14.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.38	5.42	-0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	52	0	55	233	46	33	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	3.3%	5.40	5.47	-0.6
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	21	0	22	93	18	13	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	14.5%	5.2%	3.2%	5.38	5.42	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	30	0	31	131	26	19	4	0%	1.0	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	3.3%	5.40	5.47	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	52	221	43	32	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	14.4%	5.3%	3.3%	5.39	5.07	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	122	27	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.4%	5.3%	3.3%	5.39	5.07	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		189	58	419	1808	343	238	40	31%	2.2	19.0%	13.2%	5.8%	2.2%	3.96	4.37	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	28	200	864	164	114	19	31%	2.2	19.0%	13.2%	5.8%	2.2%	3.96	4.37	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Valentin Linarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.45	19.4%	14.9%	3.1%	—	5.44	19.7%	5.3%	113	-0.01	—	—	—
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	89
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	79
Cameron Foster R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	25	SW	4.83	17.4%	11.5%	3.2%	.321	3.09	25.5%	17.5%	60	-1.74	2.50	213	78
Stephen Johnson R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	16.7%	12.7%	3.4%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	141	78
Dustin Antolin R 2017 · 4.35 FIP	27	SW	4.35	16.2%	14.4%	1.4%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	159	78
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	78
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	77
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	77
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	76
Mike Adams R 2022 · 5.36 FIP	27	SU	5.36	17.1%	11.2%	4.2%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	109	76
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	76
Jeremy Guthrie R 2006 · 4.92 FIP	27	SU	4.92	15.1%	15.1%	2.1%	.349	4.57	14.8%	8.1%	566	-0.35	4.08	1,834	75
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	75
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	75
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	75
Noah Denoyer R 2023 · 5.24 FIP	25	SW	5.24	22.2%	14.0%	4.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	181	75
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	74
Logan Taylor R 2018 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	17.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	300	74
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	74
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	74

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	19.6%	14.6%	1.25	5.41
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*