Miguel Vinicio prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Miguel Vinicio P Lynchburg Hillcats

Age 26 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%21.5%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%10.7%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Indians	10	4	30	133	26	15	1	40%	3.0	13.3%	14.1%	-0.8%	1.1%	3.86	4.34	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Indians	10	4	30	133	26	15	1	40%	3.0	19.5%	11.3%	8.3%	0.8%	3.86	3.30	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Indians Red	10	6	37	158	32	18	4	60%	3.7	13.8%	14.2%	-0.5%	3.5%	4.42	5.69	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Indians Red	10	6	37	158	32	18	4	60%	3.7	20.3%	11.4%	8.9%	2.5%	4.42	4.25	—
2021	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	6	0	22	90	21	12	0	0%	3.7	17.3%	15.7%	1.5%	0.0%	0.82	3.63	—
2021	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	6	0	22	90	21	12	0	0%	3.7	23.3%	13.3%	10.0%	0.0%	0.82	2.83	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	0	30	125	30	16	1	0%	1.5	16.6%	15.4%	1.2%	1.2%	2.70	4.31	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	0	30	125	30	16	1	0%	1.5	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	0.8%	2.70	3.13	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	34	0	51	241	51	26	12	0%	1.5	15.7%	12.7%	2.9%	6.4%	5.86	6.88	—
2023	23	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	34	0	51	241	51	26	12	0%	1.5	15.7%	12.7%	2.9%	6.4%	5.86	6.88	—
2023	23	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	34	0	51	241	51	26	12	0%	1.5	21.2%	10.8%	10.4%	5.0%	5.86	5.71	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.5%	10.8%	10.7%	3.1%	4.72	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CLE	33	0	35	148	32	16	5	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.70	4.72	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	CLE	12	0	13	55	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.70	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	12	6	2	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.70	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	189	94	31	0%	1.1	21.7%	10.7%	11.0%	3.1%	4.70	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		80	10	170	747	113	105	24	12%	2.1	15.2%	14.1%	1.1%	3.2%	3.98	5.36	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	12	200	881	134	124	28	12%	2.1	15.2%	14.1%	1.1%	3.2%	3.98	5.36	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Vinicio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	21.5%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.72	21.7%	11.0%	35	+0.00	—	—	—
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	318	84
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	83
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	83
Spencer Stockton R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	26	SU	4.18	20.2%	10.3%	2.7%	.276	5.45	18.9%	6.4%	63	+1.27	1.93	233	82
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	82
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	82
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	82
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	81
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	81
Josh Zeid R 2013 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.3%	9.3%	2.6%	.287	4.75	16.2%	4.8%	183	+0.75	4.00	313	81
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	81
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	81
Jon Leicester R 2004 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	20.0%	8.6%	4.0%	.280	4.44	11.0%	2.0%	32	-0.25	3.76	113	81
Hunter Parsons R 2023 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	22.5%	10.0%	4.3%	.274	6.70	25.5%	9.0%	29	+1.86	4.73	183	81
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	80
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	80
Cale Coshow R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	26	SU	4.59	23.1%	10.9%	3.8%	.300	3.68	23.0%	12.8%	63	-0.91	3.08	377	80
Madison Younginer IV R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	26	SU	4.22	23.0%	9.8%	3.3%	.370	4.73	14.0%	-5.3%	27	+0.51	3.08	219	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	21.6%	10.8%	1.20	4.71
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71