Jorge Juan

P Portland Sea Dogs

Age 28 RHP 6'8" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	AAMississippi B…	34	37	5.11	3.48	29.9%	15.3%	—	K 24.3% · BB 16.8% · FIP 4.41
2025	26	MIX2 levels	29	38	5.21	5.31	24.6%	19.8%	—	K 19.5% · BB 22.2% · FIP 5.88
2026	27	AABOS	2	2	27.00	10.90	7.7%	38.5%	—	K 7.7% · BB 38.5% · FIP 7.32
2027PROJ	28	MLBBOS	21	22	5.52	5.52	21.5%	17.6%	-0.2
2028PROJ31% MLB	29	MLBBOS	7	7	5.48	5.53	21.5%	17.0%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Tyler Davis (age 25) · Thad Weber (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.52

FIP5.52

K%21.5%

BB%17.6%

K-BB%3.9%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	19	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	15	6	43	192	48	22	0	40%	2.9	17.0%	14.3%	2.7%	0.0%	2.70	3.48	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	15	6	43	192	48	22	0	40%	2.9	25.0%	11.5%	13.5%	0.0%	2.70	2.41	—
2019	20	ROK MLE	AZL Athletics Green	13	6	33	166	36	33	1	46%	2.6	14.7%	24.8%	-10.1%	0.8%	7.29	5.47	—
2019	20	ROK RAW	AZL Athletics Green	13	6	33	166	36	33	1	46%	2.6	21.7%	19.9%	1.8%	0.6%	7.29	4.30	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	6	27	113	40	13	4	75%	3.3	28.0%	10.1%	17.9%	2.7%	5.40	3.51	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	6	27	113	40	13	4	75%	3.3	35.4%	11.5%	23.9%	3.5%	5.40	3.51	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	8	4	21	84	28	9	3	50%	2.6	22.3%	13.3%	9.0%	5.8%	3.92	6.06	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	8	4	21	84	28	9	3	50%	2.6	33.3%	10.7%	22.6%	3.6%	3.92	3.58	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	49	232	65	44	3	0%	1.4	22.2%	21.1%	1.1%	1.6%	4.20	4.78	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	49	232	65	44	3	0%	1.4	28.0%	19.0%	9.1%	1.3%	4.20	3.93	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	34	0	37	177	53	27	3	0%	1.1	24.3%	16.8%	7.5%	2.2%	5.11	4.41	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	34	0	37	177	53	27	3	0%	1.1	24.3%	16.8%	7.5%	2.2%	5.11	4.41	—
2024	25	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	34	0	37	177	53	27	3	0%	1.1	29.9%	15.3%	14.7%	1.7%	5.11	3.48	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	38	187	46	37	5	0%	1.3	19.5%	22.2%	-2.8%	2.9%	5.21	5.88	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	38	187	46	37	5	0%	1.3	19.5%	22.2%	-2.8%	2.9%	5.21	5.88	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	38	187	46	37	5	0%	1.3	24.6%	19.8%	4.8%	2.7%	5.21	5.31	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	2	0	2	13	1	5	0	0%	0.8	7.7%	38.5%	-30.8%	0.0%	27.00	7.32	—
2026	27	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	2	0	2	13	1	5	0	0%	0.8	7.7%	38.5%	-30.8%	0.0%	27.00	7.32	—
2026	27	AA RAW	Portland Sea Dogs	2	0	2	13	1	5	0	0%	0.8	7.7%	38.5%	-30.8%	0.0%	27.00	10.90	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	BOS	21	0	22	93	20	16	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	17.6%	3.9%	3.0%	5.52	5.52	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BOS	20	0	21	88	19	15	3	0%	1.0	21.5%	17.0%	4.5%	3.1%	5.48	5.53	-0.2
2028	29	MLB CTX	BOS	7	0	7	30	6	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	17.0%	4.5%	3.1%	5.48	5.53	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	7	27	6	5	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	17.0%	4.5%	3.1%	5.48	5.15	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	154	31	0%	1.1	21.5%	17.0%	4.5%	3.1%	5.48	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		144	22	250	1164	239	217	23	15%	1.7	20.6%	18.6%	2.0%	1.9%	4.90	4.78	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		115	18	200	931	191	173	18	15%	1.7	20.6%	18.6%	2.0%	1.9%	4.90	4.78	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Juan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.52	21.5%	17.6%	3.0%	—	5.53	21.5%	4.5%	21	+0.01	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	80
Tyler Davis R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	25	SU	6.02	21.0%	18.8%	4.2%	.317	3.78	21.9%	10.2%	111	-2.24	3.20	137	80
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	77
Jose De La Torre R 2013 · 5.22 FIP	27	SU	5.22	28.3%	18.9%	3.9%	.308	3.87	17.6%	6.6%	110	-1.35	2.64	141	76
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	75
Jeff Ames R 2019 · 4.45 FIP	28	SU	4.45	25.6%	16.8%	2.5%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	272	75
Stevie Branche R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	27	SU	5.67	19.3%	17.6%	3.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	3.23	162	75
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	75
Brian Glowicki R 2022 · 5.39 FIP	27	SU	5.39	18.2%	15.9%	3.3%	.229	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	189	74
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	74
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	74
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	73
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	73
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	73
Chris Jefferson R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	27	SU	5.65	16.4%	13.6%	4.0%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	140	73
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	72
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	72
Vic Black R 2015 · 5.28 FIP	27	SU	5.28	17.5%	19.3%	2.2%	.358	6.03	9.0%	-11.6%	29	+0.75	3.16	107	72
Conor Grammes R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	18.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.303	5.60	15.3%	-11.6%	22	+1.05	4.11	171	72
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	72