Bryan Caceres
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
A+
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 156147vR 137
ERA6.12
FIP6.12
K%12.3%
BB%17.8%
K-BB%-5.5%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 59 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 18 | 3 | 37 | 172 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 17% | 2.1 | 9.9% | 8.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 6.32 | 3.82 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 18 | 3 | 37 | 172 | 25 | 12 | 1 | 17% | 2.1 | 14.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 0.6% | 6.32 | 3.07 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 19 | 0 | 35 | 162 | 39 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 16.4% | 14.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 4.11 | 3.57 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 19 | 0 | 35 | 162 | 39 | 19 | 0 | 0% | 1.8 | 24.1% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 4.11 | 2.50 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 6 | 41 | 179 | 38 | 23 | 1 | 55% | 3.7 | 14.4% | 16.1% | -1.6% | 0.8% | 3.98 | 4.33 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 11 | 6 | 41 | 179 | 38 | 23 | 1 | 55% | 3.7 | 21.2% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 0.6% | 3.98 | 3.25 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 23 | 22 | 117 | 527 | 100 | 47 | 14 | 96% | 5.1 | 14.0% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.92 | 4.90 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 23 | 22 | 117 | 527 | 100 | 47 | 14 | 96% | 5.1 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 5.92 | 4.15 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 20 | 102 | 478 | 87 | 51 | 9 | 71% | 3.6 | 13.7% | 12.5% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 6.37 | 5.09 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 20 | 102 | 478 | 87 | 51 | 9 | 71% | 3.6 | 18.2% | 10.7% | 7.5% | 1.9% | 6.37 | 4.04 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 23 | 110 | 500 | 81 | 52 | 6 | 88% | 4.2 | 12.5% | 12.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.83 | 4.36 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 26 | 23 | 110 | 500 | 81 | 52 | 6 | 88% | 4.2 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 5.8% | 1.2% | 4.83 | 3.75 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 3 | 49 | 242 | 46 | 39 | 3 | 11% | 1.8 | 14.6% | 18.5% | -3.9% | 1.7% | 6.20 | 5.12 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 28 | 3 | 49 | 242 | 46 | 39 | 3 | 11% | 1.8 | 19.0% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 6.20 | 4.40 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 31 | 45 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.3% | 17.8% | -5.5% | 2.6% | 6.12 | 6.12 | -1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 33 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.4% | 17.0% | -3.6% | 2.7% | 5.97 | 5.98 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 34 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 16.6% | -2.6% | 2.8% | 5.90 | 5.94 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.4% | 17.0% | -3.6% | 2.7% | 5.97 | 5.98 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 31 | 0 | 33 | 139 | 20 | 23 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 16.6% | -2.6% | 2.8% | 5.90 | 5.94 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 32 | 39 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.8% | 16.7% | -3.0% | 2.8% | 5.93 | 5.58 | -0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 116 | 142 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.8% | 16.7% | -3.0% | 2.8% | 5.93 | 5.58 | -0.4 | ||
| Career | — | 153 | 77 | 491 | 2260 | 307 | 287 | 44 | 50% | 3.2 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 5.54 | 4.62 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 31 | 200 | 921 | 125 | 117 | 18 | 50% | 3.2 | 13.6% | 12.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 5.54 | 4.62 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Caceres (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.12 | 12.3% | 17.8% | 2.6% | — | 5.96 | 13.7% | -3.1% | 115 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 82 |
| Luis Niebla R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 11.6% | 13.2% | 2.1% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 156 | 75 |
| David Whitehead R 2024 · 5.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.99 | 10.7% | 19.2% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 217 | 73 |
| Alex Caldera R 2029 · 5.56 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.56 | 10.4% | 13.1% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.61 | 11.9% | 0.8% | 84 | -0.95 | 4.61 | 120 | 71 |
| Ike Buxton R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.95 | 13.8% | 19.3% | 1.0% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.52 | 196 | 71 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 71 |
| Robbie Peto R 2025 · 5.71 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.71 | 15.3% | 13.4% | 4.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.38 | 232 | 71 |
| Ryan Cusick R 2026 · 5.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.89 | 17.4% | 17.1% | 3.8% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.59 | 311 | 70 |
| John West R 2024 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.06 | 14.0% | 15.1% | 2.2% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.06 | 161 | 69 |
| Lucas Erceg R 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.74 | 17.1% | 18.1% | 3.3% | .258 | 3.41 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 193 | -2.33 | 2.09 | 339 | 69 |
| Vanny Valenzuela R 2027 · 6.66 FIP | 27 | SW | 6.66 | 12.4% | 14.8% | 5.0% | .314 | 4.38 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 70 | -2.28 | 3.26 | 118 | 69 |
| Keyvius Sampson R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.21 | 19.6% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.11 | 316 | 68 |
| Kevin McAvoy R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.99 | 15.2% | 17.2% | 1.8% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.05 | 466 | 68 |
| Jacob Dahlstrand R 2025 · 5.70 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.70 | 8.6% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .313 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 119 | 68 |
| Josh Hansell R 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.18 | 17.6% | 16.1% | 2.8% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 169 | 68 |
| Blake Hickman R 2024 · 6.54 FIP | 24 | SW | 6.54 | 12.9% | 17.8% | 4.1% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 156 | 68 |
| Brandon Dufault R 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.20 | 12.2% | 20.1% | 1.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 152 | 67 |
| Colby Morris R 2025 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 67 |
| Parker French R 2025 · 5.61 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.61 | 7.8% | 16.0% | 2.1% | .340 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 415 | 67 |
| Michael Kelly R 2025 · 6.28 FIP | 25 | SW | 6.28 | 14.6% | 24.2% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.61 | 24.8% | 15.9% | 45 | -2.67 | 2.83 | 666 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 13.2% | 17.1% | 1.04 | 6.00 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |