Bryan Caceres — OGILVIE

Bryan Caceres P Wilmington Blue Rocks

Age 27 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 60 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 152144vR 136

ERA6.25

FIP6.25

K%13.2%

BB%18.6%

K-BB%-5.4%

ROS IP60

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2020

CMD2525

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	18	3	37	172	25	12	1	17%	2.1	9.9%	8.7%	1.2%	0.8%	6.32	3.82	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	18	3	37	172	25	12	1	17%	2.1	14.5%	7.0%	7.6%	0.6%	6.32	3.07	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	19	0	35	162	39	19	0	0%	1.8	16.4%	14.7%	1.7%	0.0%	4.11	3.57	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	19	0	35	162	39	19	0	0%	1.8	24.1%	11.7%	12.3%	0.0%	4.11	2.50	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	6	41	179	38	23	1	55%	3.7	14.4%	16.1%	-1.6%	0.8%	3.98	4.34	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	11	6	41	179	38	23	1	55%	3.7	21.2%	12.8%	8.4%	0.6%	3.98	3.25	—
2022	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	22	117	527	100	47	14	96%	5.1	14.0%	10.5%	3.5%	3.2%	5.92	5.01	—
2022	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	22	117	527	100	47	14	96%	5.1	19.0%	8.9%	10.1%	2.7%	5.92	4.15	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	20	102	478	87	51	9	71%	3.6	13.7%	12.5%	1.3%	2.6%	6.37	4.94	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	20	102	478	87	51	9	71%	3.6	18.2%	10.7%	7.5%	1.9%	6.37	4.04	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	23	110	500	81	52	6	88%	4.2	12.5%	12.0%	0.5%	1.5%	4.83	4.37	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	23	110	500	81	52	6	88%	4.2	12.5%	12.0%	0.5%	1.5%	4.83	4.37	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	26	23	110	500	81	52	6	88%	4.2	16.2%	10.4%	5.8%	1.2%	4.83	3.75	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	3	49	242	46	39	3	11%	1.8	14.6%	18.5%	-3.9%	1.6%	6.20	5.09	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	3	49	242	46	39	3	11%	1.8	14.6%	18.5%	-3.9%	1.6%	6.20	5.09	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	28	3	49	242	46	39	3	11%	1.8	19.0%	16.1%	2.9%	1.2%	6.20	4.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	WSH	9	9	60	253	33	47	7	100%	6.7	13.2%	18.6%	-5.4%	2.8%	6.25	6.25	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	58	244	34	43	7	100%	6.4	14.1%	17.8%	-3.7%	2.9%	6.10	6.14	-0.8
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	55	233	34	40	7	100%	6.1	14.6%	17.4%	-2.8%	3.1%	6.06	6.13	-0.7
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	3	3	21	89	13	16	3	100%	7.0	14.1%	17.8%	-3.7%	2.9%	6.10	6.14	-0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	30	127	18	22	4	100%	6.0	14.6%	17.4%	-2.8%	3.1%	6.06	6.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	8	51	217	31	38	7	100%	6.4	14.4%	17.5%	-3.2%	3.0%	6.08	5.75	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	120	148	27	100%	6.4	14.4%	17.5%	-3.2%	3.0%	6.08	5.75	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		153	77	491	2260	307	287	43	50%	3.2	13.6%	12.7%	0.9%	1.9%	5.54	4.62	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	31	200	921	125	117	18	50%	3.2	13.6%	12.7%	0.9%	1.9%	5.54	4.62	-2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Caceres (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.25	13.2%	18.6%	2.8%	—	6.14	14.3%	-3.3%	113	-0.11	—	—	—
Luis Niebla R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP-	5.12	11.6%	13.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	156	75
Paul Clemens R 2015 · 5.37 FIP	27	SP-	5.37	14.3%	14.1%	3.1%	.310	4.62	16.9%	7.3%	200	-0.75	4.58	345	73
Alex Caldera R 2015 · 5.57 FIP	29	SW	5.57	10.4%	13.1%	3.1%	.333	4.54	11.9%	0.8%	84	-1.03	4.54	120	70
Robbie Peto R 2023 · 5.75 FIP	25	SW	5.75	15.3%	13.4%	4.1%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	5.39	232	68
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	68
Chris Jensen R 2018 · 5.31 FIP	27	SW	5.31	12.0%	10.6%	3.4%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	488	67
Keyvius Sampson R 2017 · 5.08 FIP	26	SP-	5.08	19.6%	16.4%	2.8%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	316	67
Jake Walters R 2023 · 5.85 FIP	27	SW	5.85	15.2%	13.9%	4.2%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	261	66
Colby Morris R 2022 · 5.76 FIP	25	SW	5.76	16.2%	11.8%	4.6%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	105	66
Daniel Bard R 2012 · 5.69 FIP	27	SP-	5.69	13.7%	15.2%	3.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	456	66
Brad Allen R 2016 · 5.82 FIP	27	SW	5.82	14.7%	13.2%	4.2%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	149	65
Vanny Valenzuela R 2015 · 6.82 FIP	27	SW	6.82	12.4%	14.8%	5.3%	.314	4.29	15.8%	4.6%	70	-2.53	3.26	118	65
Ariel Peña R 2016 · 6.26 FIP	27	SW	6.26	16.2%	17.7%	4.2%	.379	4.57	21.8%	6.0%	75	-1.69	3.74	223	65
Deylen Miley R 2023 · 5.34 FIP	25	SP-	5.34	22.3%	17.5%	3.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.07	185	64
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	64
Victor Mateo R 2016 · 5.45 FIP	27	SW	5.45	10.2%	12.2%	3.0%	.370	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	199	64
John Richy R 2018 · 6.47 FIP	26	SW	6.47	12.2%	12.9%	5.1%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	313	64
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2015 · 5.24 FIP	27	SP-	5.24	11.6%	9.8%	3.4%	.263	4.28	15.3%	5.2%	167	-0.96	4.01	272	64
Mike Connolly R 2018 · 5.13 FIP	26	SW	5.13	13.2%	9.4%	3.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	328	64
Jacob Dahlstrand R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	25	SW	5.73	8.6%	13.8%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	119	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	13.9%	17.9%	1.13	6.14
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Matt Perisho ('05)	1.4	69	15.2%	12.2%	1.37	6.39
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89