Luarbert Arias
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 25
RHP
6'2" / 176 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134125vR 115
ERA4.83
FIP5.09
K%16.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%6.5%
ROS IP28
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1015.8%
K%
p2318.2%
xwOBA vs
p100.414
SL-1.4 (46%)
FB-2.8 (38%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 187 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 82% | 4.0 | 13.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.50 | 4.54 | — |
| 2018 | 17 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 187 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 82% | 4.0 | 19.8% | 5.9% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 3.50 | 3.35 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 12 | 8 | 51 | 204 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 67% | 4.3 | 20.0% | 5.5% | 14.5% | 0.7% | 3.68 | 2.49 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | AZL Padres 1 | 12 | 8 | 51 | 204 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 67% | 4.3 | 29.4% | 4.4% | 25.0% | 0.5% | 3.68 | 1.54 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 31.3% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 3.86 | 9.16 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 57 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.6 | 40.7% | 15.0% | 25.7% | 4.3% | 3.86 | 3.93 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 1 | 58 | 241 | 72 | 22 | 5 | 3% | 2.0 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 1.9% | 3.41 | 3.72 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 1 | 58 | 241 | 72 | 22 | 5 | 3% | 2.0 | 29.9% | 9.1% | 20.7% | 2.1% | 3.41 | 2.88 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 231 | 78 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.5% | 6.9% | 19.6% | 5.1% | 1.84 | 4.56 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 0 | 59 | 231 | 78 | 14 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.8% | 6.1% | 27.7% | 3.0% | 1.84 | 2.71 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 44 | 1 | 68 | 291 | 75 | 25 | 8 | 2% | 1.5 | 22.7% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 3.6% | 3.04 | 4.28 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AAA | Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp | 44 | 1 | 68 | 291 | 75 | 25 | 8 | 2% | 1.5 | 25.8% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 2.7% | 3.04 | 3.53 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 2 | 40 | 196 | 26 | 25 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 11.4% | 13.2% | -1.8% | 2.9% | 7.20 | 5.42 | -0.4 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 2 | 40 | 196 | 26 | 25 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 13.3% | 12.8% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 7.20 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 5.09 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 26 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 0 | 13 | 55 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 3.1% | 4.86 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 0 | 24 | 111 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 7.68 | 4.63 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 166 | 0 | 200 | 941 | 169 | 93 | 34 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 7.68 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 186 | 21 | 352 | 1490 | 313 | 144 | 56 | 11% | 1.9 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 3.60 | 4.63 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 12 | 200 | 846 | 178 | 82 | 32 | 11% | 1.9 | 21.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 3.8% | 3.60 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luarbert Arias (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.93 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 28 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .342 | 4.48 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.52 | 2.72 | 102 | 83 |
| Josh Hejka R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .363 | 4.09 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 77 | -0.78 | 2.94 | 182 | 81 |
| David Holman R 2028 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 81 |
| El'Hajj Muhammad R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.71 | 13.6% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .285 | 5.19 | 7.1% | -2.5% | 11 | +0.48 | 4.65 | 113 | 81 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 80 |
| Zach Nuding R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 80 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.21 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 152 | 80 |
| Confesor Lara R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 111 | 80 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.34 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 3.2% | .238 | 4.64 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 263 | +0.30 | 3.75 | 299 | 79 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 79 |
| Cade Denton R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.96 | 15.9% | 11.1% | 3.3% | .345 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 127 | 79 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 134 | 79 |
| Carter Rustad R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.84 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 101 | 79 |
| Tyler Burch R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.70 | 15.0% | 12.6% | 2.3% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 119 | 79 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.41 | 15.6% | 12.2% | 3.8% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 356 | 79 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 78 |
| Luis De La O R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.25 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.5% | .370 | 3.72 | 15.3% | 10.8% | 81 | -0.53 | 3.19 | 145 | 78 |
| Woo-Suk Go R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.88 | 17.4% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .359 | 3.88 | 23.1% | 12.4% | 54 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 107 | 78 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 321 | 78 |
| Jacinto Arredondo R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.89 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .375 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.89 | 101 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 28 | 17.5% | 10.2% | 1.22 | 4.85 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |