Luarbert Arias — OGILVIE

Luarbert Arias P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 176 lbs AAA

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 25 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA4.87

FIP5.15

K%14.6%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%4.7%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1015.8%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.414

SL-1.4 (46%)

FB-2.8 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	17	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	11	9	44	187	37	11	4	82%	4.0	13.5%	7.4%	6.1%	3.0%	3.50	4.54	—
2018	17	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 1	11	9	44	187	37	11	4	82%	4.0	19.8%	5.9%	13.9%	2.1%	3.50	3.35	—
2019	18	ROK MLE	AZL Padres 1	12	8	51	204	60	9	1	67%	4.3	20.0%	5.5%	14.5%	0.7%	3.68	2.49	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	AZL Padres 1	12	8	51	204	60	9	1	67%	4.3	29.4%	4.4%	25.0%	0.5%	3.68	1.54	—
2021	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	33	140	57	21	6	0%	1.6	31.3%	17.0%	14.3%	9.2%	3.86	7.67	—
2021	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	33	140	57	21	6	0%	1.6	40.7%	15.0%	25.7%	4.3%	3.86	3.93	—
2022	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	1	58	241	72	22	5	3%	2.0	22.4%	11.4%	11.0%	1.9%	3.41	3.67	—
2022	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	1	58	241	72	22	5	3%	2.0	29.9%	9.1%	20.7%	2.1%	3.41	2.88	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	59	231	78	14	7	0%	1.5	26.5%	6.9%	19.6%	4.3%	1.84	4.08	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	59	231	78	14	7	0%	1.5	33.8%	6.1%	27.7%	3.0%	1.84	2.71	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	44	1	68	291	75	25	8	2%	1.5	22.2%	7.7%	14.4%	3.3%	3.04	4.00	—
2024	23	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	44	1	68	291	75	25	8	2%	1.5	22.2%	7.7%	14.4%	3.3%	3.04	4.00	—
2024	23	AAA RAW	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	44	1	68	291	75	25	8	2%	1.5	25.8%	8.6%	17.2%	2.7%	3.04	3.53	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	40	196	26	25	4	7%	1.3	11.3%	11.8%	-0.5%	2.8%	7.20	5.15	-0.3
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	2	40	196	26	25	4	7%	1.3	11.3%	11.8%	-0.5%	2.8%	7.20	5.15	-0.3
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	2	40	196	26	25	4	7%	1.3	13.3%	12.8%	0.5%	2.0%	7.20	4.97	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			7	0	10	55	10	5	2	0%	1.5	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	3.6%	11.32	5.13	-0.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	MIA	24	0	25	106	15	10	3	0%	1.0	14.6%	9.9%	4.7%	3.0%	4.87	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	MIA	34	0	36	150	23	15	5	0%	1.0	15.5%	9.9%	5.6%	3.1%	4.98	5.11	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	MIA	14	0	15	63	10	6	2	0%	1.1	15.5%	9.9%	5.6%	3.1%	4.98	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	0	25	119	20	11	4	0%	1.2	16.7%	9.5%	7.2%	3.3%	7.56	4.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		168	0	200	934	157	87	31	0%	1.2	16.7%	9.5%	7.2%	3.3%	7.56	4.72	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		186	21	352	1490	312	138	49	11%	1.9	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.3%	3.60	4.31	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	12	200	846	177	78	28	11%	1.9	20.9%	9.2%	11.7%	3.3%	3.60	4.31	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luarbert Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	14.6%	9.9%	3.0%	—	5.11	15.5%	5.6%	36	-0.04	—	—	—
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	83
Chad Paronto R 2001 · 5.28 FIP	26	SU	5.28	12.5%	8.6%	3.9%	.292	3.73	14.9%	8.4%	36	-1.55	3.65	160	82
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	82
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	82
Justin Lehr R 2004 · 4.36 FIP	26	SU	4.36	11.1%	8.3%	2.1%	.283	4.47	15.2%	5.6%	50	+0.11	4.23	148	81
Jake Johansen R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	26	SU	4.65	15.9%	12.1%	2.5%	.273	3.65	12.8%	4.9%	48	-1.00	3.65	162	81
Cesar Gomez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	15.7%	9.1%	2.9%	.338	5.17	14.1%	5.8%	63	+0.67	4.11	345	81
Raul Fernandez R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	13.6%	9.3%	2.2%	.270	5.54	20.4%	6.2%	38	+1.19	4.03	165	81
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	80
Aaron Kurcz R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	26	SU	4.84	15.4%	8.4%	3.6%	.301	3.97	26.2%	21.8%	50	-0.87	3.31	213	80
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	80
Jonathan Brand R 2024 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	13.6%	10.6%	2.4%	.284	4.87	22.0%	11.9%	115	+0.26	3.34	198	80
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	80
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	80
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	80
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	202	80
Scot Shields R 2002 · 4.27 FIP	27	SU	4.27	16.0%	10.6%	2.1%	.201	3.01	22.1%	15.0%	345	-1.26	2.77	686	80
Jose Campos R 2018 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	14.3%	9.1%	2.9%	.377	6.69	15.5%	4.5%	26	+2.03	3.28	241	80
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	80
Chris Hatcher R 2012 · 5.60 FIP	27	SU	5.60	15.2%	9.1%	4.8%	.298	2.68	26.4%	20.9%	95	-2.92	2.51	246	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	35	15.7%	9.8%	1.21	5.87
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Travis Miller ('02)	1.3	45	16.3%	9.2%	0.91	5.05
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82