Slade Cecconi
P
Cleveland Guardians
+0.8
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 219 lbs
MLB
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 0.8 · 2026
ERA4.82
FIP4.63
xFIP4.97
SIERA4.80
K%20.4%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%14.4%
IP116
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p2792.9
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p1717.4%
xwOBA vs
p100.388
FB+0.9 (50%)
SI (16%)
CU (15%)
CT-1.2 (25%)
SL-1.6 (10%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 12 | 12 | 59 | 248 | 63 | 20 | 5 | 19.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.06 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 26 | 25 | 130 | 566 | 127 | 32 | 22 | 18.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.37 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 30 | 27 | 143 | 618 | 138 | 40 | 28 | 20.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.78 | 4.93 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 38 | 18 | 124 | 521 | 118 | 29 | 21 | 21.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.30 | 4.21 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 26 | 26 | 145 | 596 | 119 | 33 | 24 | 19.8% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.34 | 4.24 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 4 | 4 | 20 | 88 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 3.4% | 5.03 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | CLE | 16 | 16 | 88 | 373 | 76 | 26 | 14 | 20.4% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 4.60 | 4.38 | +0.8 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | CLE | — | — | 108 | 461 | 94 | 36 | 17 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 4.68 | 4.44 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | CLE | 18 | 18 | 101 | 426 | 87 | 31 | 17 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.79 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | CLE | 17 | 17 | 92 | 388 | 77 | 28 | 15 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 4.87 | 4.87 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | CLE | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 68 | 26 | 14 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 4.92 | 4.96 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | CLE | 14 | 14 | 74 | 314 | 65 | 21 | 13 | 20.8% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 4.84 | 4.79 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | CLE | 12 | 12 | 66 | 280 | 56 | 19 | 12 | 20.1% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 4.88 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | CLE | 59 | — | 59 | 249 | 48 | 17 | 10 | 19.5% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 4.97 | 5.04 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | CLE | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 41 | 16 | 9 | 18.8% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 5.09 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | CLE | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 35 | 14 | 9 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 5.23 | 5.33 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | CLE | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 29 | 13 | 8 | 17.3% | 7.7% | 4.5% | 5.39 | 5.49 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 136 | 112 | 621 | 2637 | 523 | 173 | 108 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 4.50 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 36 | 200 | 850 | 169 | 56 | 35 | 19.8% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 4.87 | 4.50 | +1.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Slade Cecconi (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 20.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | — | 4.87 | 19.9% | 12.7% | 276 | +0.20 | — | — | — |
| Nestor Molina R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 70 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 70 |
| Gabriel Arias R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 13.1% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 195 | 69 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.34 | 12.6% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .289 | 3.82 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 329 | -0.52 | 3.14 | 593 | 69 |
| David Hale R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.26 | 16.2% | 6.8% | 3.1% | .343 | 4.14 | 13.8% | 8.1% | 251 | -0.12 | 3.32 | 493 | 68 |
| Colin Bates R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.57 | 10.5% | 6.5% | 2.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 111 | 68 |
| Patrick Johnson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .286 | 4.13 | 15.7% | 6.4% | 120 | +0.24 | 3.89 | 248 | 68 |
| Scott McGregor R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 11.8% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41 | 107 | 68 |
| Shawn Haviland R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 29 | SP- | 3.95 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .303 | 4.69 | 16.1% | 8.8% | 169 | +0.74 | 3.69 | 283 | 67 |
| Caleb Clay R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.67 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 111 | 67 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.41 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .322 | 4.14 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.27 | 4.14 | 275 | 67 |
| Jacob Turner R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.43 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 340 | 67 |
| David Reyes R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.30 | 10.9% | 6.1% | 2.5% | .330 | 4.92 | 13.8% | 6.5% | 84 | +0.62 | 3.37 | 465 | 67 |
| Sean O'Sullivan R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.7% | 6.2% | 3.3% | .285 | 4.09 | 15.3% | 7.8% | 162 | -0.54 | 3.62 | 290 | 67 |
| Frank Batista R 2025 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.27 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 118 | 67 |
| Sam Highfill R 2023 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 67 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 67 |
| Hector Noesí R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 67 |
| Jose Pina R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.86 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .231 | 3.67 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.19 | 3.65 | 424 | 67 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 67 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2023
Service 1.901 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.8 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $0.8M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.1M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $2M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $4M | $9M | +$5M | ||