Slade Cecconi — OGILVIE

Slade Cecconi P Cleveland Guardians

Age 27 RHP 6'4" / 219 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.9 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 11 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.55

FIP4.52

K%18.7%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 130 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL6060

CMD5050

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3693.5

Whiff%

p1720.6%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p290.337

FB+0.9 (47%)

SI (20%)

CU (15%)

CH (2%)

CT-1.2 (26%)

SL-1.6 (10%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.901 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-2	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$-2M	+$0.1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	12	12	59	248	63	20	5	100%	4.9	19.6%	9.3%	10.3%	2.6%	4.12	4.05	—
2021	22	A+ RAW	Hillsboro Hops	12	12	59	248	63	20	5	100%	4.9	25.4%	8.1%	17.3%	2.0%	4.12	3.08	—
2022	23	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	25	130	566	127	32	22	96%	5.0	18.2%	6.2%	12.0%	4.3%	4.37	4.69	—
2022	23	AA RAW	Amarillo Sod Poodles	26	25	130	566	127	32	22	96%	5.0	22.4%	5.7%	16.8%	3.9%	4.37	4.09	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	143	618	138	40	28	90%	4.8	19.1%	5.9%	13.2%	4.9%	5.78	4.93	-0.0
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	143	618	138	40	28	90%	4.8	19.1%	5.9%	13.2%	4.9%	5.78	4.93	-0.0
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	143	618	138	40	28	90%	4.8	22.3%	6.5%	15.9%	4.5%	5.78	4.55	+0.6
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	18	124	521	118	29	21	47%	3.3	20.9%	5.3%	15.6%	4.2%	5.30	4.31	+0.4
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	18	124	521	118	29	21	47%	3.3	20.9%	5.3%	15.6%	4.2%	5.30	4.31	+0.4
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	18	124	521	118	29	21	47%	3.3	22.6%	5.6%	17.1%	4.0%	5.30	4.10	+0.7
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	145	596	119	33	24	100%	5.6	19.7%	5.5%	14.2%	4.0%	4.34	4.35	+0.9
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	145	596	119	33	24	100%	5.6	19.7%	5.5%	14.2%	4.0%	4.34	4.35	+0.9
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	145	596	119	33	24	100%	5.6	20.0%	5.5%	14.4%	4.0%	4.34	4.29	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			75	61	352	1504	286	87	63	81%	4.7	19.0%	5.8%	13.2%	4.2%	5.07	4.54	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	27	21	119	526	96	37	19	78%	4.4	18.2%	7.1%	11.2%	3.7%	5.05	4.50	+0.6
YTD	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	27	21	119	526	96	37	19	78%	4.4	18.2%	7.1%	11.2%	3.7%	5.05	4.50	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	AAA RAW	CLE	2	0	4	16	3	1	0	0%	1.9	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	0.0%	4.91	2.31	—
2026	27	MLB RAW	CLE	25	21	116	510	93	36	19	84%	4.6	18.2%	7.1%	11.2%	3.7%	5.06	4.50	+0.5
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	CLE	25	21	116	510	93	36	19	84%	4.6	18.2%	7.1%	11.2%	3.7%	5.06	4.50	+0.5
ROS	27	MLB MLE	CLE	2	2	11	45	8	3	2	100%	5.3	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	4.0%	4.55	4.52	+0.0
ROS	27	MLB CTX	CLE	2	2	11	46	9	3	2	100%	5.5	18.7%	6.4%	12.3%	4.0%	4.54	4.51	+0.0
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	CLE	—	—	130	571	104	40	21	—	—	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	3.6%	5.01	4.51	+0.6
FULL	27	MLB A+C	CLE	—	—	126	533	104	40	21	—	—	19.6%	7.5%	12.1%	3.9%	5.16	4.53	+0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	CLE	19	19	116	491	92	32	20	100%	6.1	18.7%	6.6%	12.1%	4.0%	4.90	4.92	-0.0
2028	29	MLB MLE	CLE	18	18	111	469	85	32	19	100%	6.2	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	4.1%	5.01	5.08	-0.2
2029	30	MLB MLE	CLE	17	17	104	440	77	31	19	100%	6.1	17.4%	7.1%	10.3%	4.3%	5.18	5.29	-0.5
2027	28	MLB CTX	CLE	19	19	116	490	92	32	19	100%	6.1	18.7%	6.6%	12.1%	4.0%	4.89	4.91	-0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	CLE	18	18	111	469	85	32	19	100%	6.2	18.1%	6.8%	11.3%	4.1%	5.00	5.07	-0.2
2029	30	MLB CTX	CLE	17	17	104	439	76	31	19	100%	6.1	17.4%	7.1%	10.3%	4.3%	5.17	5.28	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		132	118	694	2948	548	186	123	89%	5.3	18.6%	6.3%	12.3%	4.2%	5.04	4.61	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		38	34	200	850	158	54	35	89%	5.3	18.6%	6.3%	12.3%	4.2%	5.04	4.61	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		159	129	720	3075	591	192	126	81%	4.5	19.2%	6.3%	13.0%	4.1%	4.90	4.52	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	36	200	854	164	53	35	81%	4.5	19.2%	6.3%	13.0%	4.1%	4.90	4.52	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Slade Cecconi (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	19.8%	5.5%	4.0%	—	5.09	18.1%	11.3%	332	+0.36	—	—	—
Nick Martinez R 2017 · 5.09 FIP	26	SP-	5.09	13.9%	5.6%	4.5%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	1,134	75
Nathan Eovaldi R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	26	SP	4.71	18.5%	7.2%	4.1%	.272	4.29	22.6%	15.6%	179	-0.42	2.44	1,378	72
Brad Peacock R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	28	SP-	3.97	20.9%	8.7%	2.8%	.302	3.45	29.4%	20.4%	289	-0.52	2.97	533	71
Tyler Chatwood R 2017 · 4.54 FIP	27	SP-	4.54	19.0%	11.9%	2.8%	.279	4.53	20.6%	5.2%	199	-0.01	3.30	537	70
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	69
David Hale R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	16.2%	6.8%	2.8%	.343	4.11	13.8%	8.1%	251	-0.04	3.30	493	68
Brian Van Belle R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP	5.33	18.2%	8.3%	5.0%	.289	3.50	17.2%	12.3%	199	-1.83	3.13	556	68
Matt Andriese R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	27	SP	4.71	20.3%	7.2%	4.4%	.290	3.99	24.5%	17.5%	181	-0.72	3.08	744	67
Graham Ashcraft R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	25	SP	4.53	17.8%	8.3%	3.4%	.285	3.51	20.6%	11.5%	172	-1.02	2.67	569	67
Mat Latos R 2015 · 3.60 FIP	27	SP	3.60	20.2%	6.3%	2.6%	.306	5.16	14.5%	4.4%	128	+1.56	3.60	244	67
Taylor Jungmann R 2017 · 3.88 FIP	27	SP-	3.88	18.8%	11.1%	1.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	435	67
Jimmy Nelson R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	27	SP	4.57	17.3%	10.4%	2.9%	.289	3.16	27.2%	18.6%	238	-1.41	1.32	650	67
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	67
Caleb Kilian R 2023 · 4.66 FIP	26	SP	4.66	15.4%	6.2%	3.8%	.290	3.57	21.4%	13.2%	105	-1.09	2.42	444	67
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	67
Joe Wieland R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	26	SP	4.27	18.6%	7.3%	3.3%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	270	66
Hector Noesí R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	66
Anthony Ranaudo R 2016 · 5.10 FIP	26	SP	5.10	15.5%	6.1%	4.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	275	66
Zach Plesac R 2022 · 4.30 FIP	27	SP	4.30	17.6%	6.7%	3.4%	.285	6.44	13.5%	5.0%	286	+2.14	3.27	965	66
Seth Lugo R 2017 · 3.66 FIP	27	SP	3.66	19.9%	5.4%	2.9%	.328	2.85	28.8%	23.7%	218	-0.81	2.19	1,379	66

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	112	18.5%	6.5%	1.59	4.96
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54