T.J. Fondtain — OGILVIE

T.J. Fondtain P Montgomery Biscuits

Age 25 LHP 6'5" / 215 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 119

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%22.6%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%15.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	9.00	1.69	—
2023	22	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	9.00	1.69	—
2023	22	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0%	1.0	16.7%	0.0%	16.7%	0.0%	9.00	1.10	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	32	4	61	236	67	13	11	12%	1.9	21.9%	6.3%	15.5%	5.7%	3.38	5.21	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	32	4	61	236	67	13	11	12%	1.9	21.9%	6.3%	15.5%	5.7%	3.38	5.21	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	32	4	61	236	67	13	11	12%	1.9	28.4%	5.5%	22.9%	4.7%	3.38	3.88	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	73	21	6	5	0%	1.2	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	10.0%	7.20	7.75	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	15	73	21	6	5	0%	1.2	23.0%	8.6%	14.4%	10.0%	7.20	7.75	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	15	73	21	6	5	0%	1.2	28.8%	8.2%	20.5%	6.8%	7.20	5.83	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	32	0	51	217	41	26	6	0%	1.6	15.5%	14.2%	1.3%	4.0%	5.47	5.81	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Montgomery Biscuits	32	0	51	217	41	26	6	0%	1.6	15.5%	14.2%	1.3%	4.0%	5.47	5.81	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A+ RAW	TB	5	0	9	39	7	3	0	0%	1.9	17.9%	7.7%	10.3%	0.0%	3.86	2.56	—
2026	25	AA RAW	TB	27	0	42	178	34	23	6	0%	1.5	19.1%	12.9%	6.2%	3.4%	5.83	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	TB	53	0	55	233	53	18	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	3.5%	4.47	4.46	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	TB	52	0	54	230	53	18	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.9%	15.1%	3.5%	4.47	4.48	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	TB	23	0	24	101	23	8	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.7%	15.2%	3.5%	4.47	4.46	+0.0
2028	27	MLB CTX	TB	32	0	34	144	33	11	5	0%	1.1	22.9%	7.9%	15.1%	3.5%	4.47	4.48	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	248	57	19	9	0%	1.0	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.5%	4.47	4.09	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	65	31	0%	1.1	22.9%	7.8%	15.1%	3.5%	4.47	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		77	4	128	532	103	52	30	5%	1.7	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	5.6%	4.70	5.76	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		120	6	200	829	160	81	46	5%	1.7	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	5.6%	4.70	5.76	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
T.J. Fondtain (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	22.6%	7.6%	3.6%	—	4.47	22.9%	15.1%	110	-0.03	—	—	—
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2015 · 3.77 FIP	26	SU	3.77	20.5%	6.9%	2.8%	.287	3.21	22.3%	9.6%	66	-0.56	2.81	159	82
Greg Nappo L 2015 · 3.37 FIP	26	SU	3.37	22.7%	7.5%	2.2%	.267	5.25	16.5%	5.9%	79	+1.88	3.37	144	81
Kit Scheetz L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	22.9%	8.7%	3.9%	.340	5.08	16.2%	2.6%	55	+0.66	2.34	195	80
Michael Sansone L 2023 · 3.48 FIP	23	SU	3.48	24.2%	5.2%	3.2%	.338	4.71	16.4%	10.0%	263	+1.23	3.15	291	80
Jake Kalish L 2016 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	17.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.231	3.90	17.0%	11.9%	352	+0.01	2.68	740	80
Tyler Webb L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	25	SU	3.80	21.6%	6.9%	3.0%	.324	3.31	24.3%	17.3%	185	-0.49	3.10	337	79
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	79
Jordan Jess L 2018 · 3.64 FIP	25	SU	3.64	19.3%	5.3%	2.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	136	79
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	79
David Rollins L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	25	SU	3.78	17.8%	5.9%	2.6%	.391	4.76	16.9%	10.5%	107	+0.98	3.59	132	78
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	78
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	77
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	77
Adam Liberatore L 2015 · 3.64 FIP	28	SU	3.64	21.1%	7.3%	2.5%	.267	3.17	23.3%	15.2%	73	-0.47	2.38	124	77
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	77
Ryan Sherriff L 2015 · 4.27 FIP	25	SU	4.27	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.317	3.28	18.8%	11.9%	135	-0.99	2.96	245	77
Keith Hessler L 2015 · 3.48 FIP	26	SU	3.48	23.0%	5.6%	2.9%	.275	4.41	18.3%	6.9%	156	+0.93	3.31	228	76
Kirby Snead L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	20.7%	8.7%	2.9%	.318	3.10	24.6%	15.6%	98	-0.93	2.12	388	76
Jake Miednik L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	25	SU	4.94	23.7%	11.7%	4.3%	.308	6.12	10.5%	-4.1%	32	+1.18	1.55	126	76
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	42	22.9%	7.8%	1.37	4.47
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79