Heston Kjerstad

LF Norfolk Tides

Age 28 L/R 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA HR +9% Svc 1.238 · Ctrl thru 2031

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	25	MLBBAL	114	.253/.351/.394	4	1	106	-0.1
2025	26	MLBBAL	167	.192/.241/.327	4	1	55	-1.5
2026	27	MLBBAL	19	.211/.211/.263	0	0	26	-0.5
2027PROJ45% MLB	28	MLBBAL	158	.232/.286/.386	5	1	84	-0.2
2028PROJ48% MLB	29	MLBBAL	177	.229/.283/.379	5	1	81	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR -2.2 · Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.238First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.2M2030Ext$0.4M2031Ext$0.6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Speed58

Avg EV47

Barrel%39

xwOBA33

Bat Spd32

Whiff%25

CompsLuke Allen (age 28) · Roger Kieschnick (age 28) · Andy Wilkins (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 5884vR 94

AVG/OBP/SLG.232 / .286 / .386

PA158

HR5

K%28

BB%6

BABIP294

ISO158

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT40

Whiff%

2513.8%

xAVG

150.223

POWER45

Barrel%

396.8

Avg EV

4788.9

Bat Spd

3269.4

EYE35

Chase%

1937.7%

SPEED55

Sprint

5827.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 265 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

242

—

wRC+

-20

▶▶R

wOBA

139

292

▶▶R

ISO

—

156

—

BABIP

167

270

▶▶R

39.1%

26.9%

▶▶R

BB%

4.3%

5.4%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2023

Service 1.238 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	23	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	186	163	38	8	2	3	16	47	4	1	0	233	317	362	679	129	302	25	9	304	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	98	80	37	9	0	2	13	17	4	0	0	463	557	650	1.207	188	565	17	13	523	189	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	104	98	35	9	1	5	5	31	0	0	0	357	388	622	1.011	265	476	30	5	434	180	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	33	30	7	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	233	273	467	739	233	278	30	6	317	99	-0	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.6
2023	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	337	295	88	19	5	10	27	69	9	2	1	298	371	498	870	200	356	20	8	379	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	206	184	57	10	3	11	15	31	7	3	3	310	383	576	960	266	324	15	7	418	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	114	99	25	2	0	4	10	33	5	1	0	253	351	394	745	141	339	29	9	340	106	+1	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.1
2024	25	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	258	213	64	14	1	16	32	67	6	2	0	300	405	601	1.006	300	353	26	12	424	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	16	13	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	308	438	385	822	77	333	6	12	383	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	167	156	30	5	2	4	6	45	4	1	0	192	241	327	568	135	241	27	4	253	55	-9	+0	-7	-3	+4	-1.5
2025	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	112	101	15	2	1	2	10	30	0	0	1	149	223	248	471	99	188	27	9	218	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	19	19	4	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	211	211	263	474	53	400	47	0	210	26	-2	+0	+0	-4	+0	-0.5
2026	27	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	333	301	87	17	1	11	20	83	4	0	4	289	340	462	802	173	360	25	6	347	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	333	304	66	9	2	10	18	97	9	2	0	217	280	359	639	141	283	29	5	287	80	-8	+0	-8	-17	+7	-2.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	186	169	31	6	2	2	10	62	4	1	0	183	246	278	524	95	264	33	5	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	98	85	34	8	0	1	8	22	4	0	0	400	474	529	1.004	129	518	22	8	448	189	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	33	31	7	1	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	226	273	452	724	226	278	30	6	315	99	-0	+0	+0	-6	+1	-0.6
2023	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	337	305	80	16	6	7	20	85	9	2	1	262	326	423	749	161	331	25	6	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	206	188	51	8	3	7	11	38	7	3	3	271	335	457	792	186	309	18	5	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	114	101	25	2	0	4	8	33	5	1	0	248	333	386	719	139	339	29	7	325	106	+1	+0	-1	-4	+2	-0.1
2024	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	258	223	59	12	1	12	23	75	6	2	0	265	349	489	838	224	323	29	9	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	16	14	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	286	375	357	732	71	307	6	6	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	167	156	30	5	2	4	6	45	4	1	0	192	241	327	568	135	241	27	4	249	55	-9	+0	-7	-3	+4	-1.5
2025	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	112	105	14	2	1	1	7	37	0	0	1	133	188	200	388	67	192	33	6	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	19	19	4	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	211	211	263	474	53	400	47	0	207	26	-2	+0	+0	-4	+0	-0.5
2026	27	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	333	310	77	14	1	8	12	100	4	0	4	248	285	377	663	129	324	30	4	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	388	350	90	19	2	5	25	115	8	1	0	257	321	366	687	109	362	30	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	388	341	110	26	3	10	34	95	8	1	0	323	397	504	901	182	415	24	9	394	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	576	524	137	25	8	16	33	133	16	5	4	261	325	431	756	170	320	23	6	330	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	576	509	152	30	8	23	44	110	16	5	4	299	370	525	895	226	340	19	8	389	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	388	337	88	15	1	16	33	109	12	3	0	261	348	454	802	193	330	28	9	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	388	325	93	17	1	20	44	101	12	3	0	286	390	529	919	243	348	26	11	398	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	279	261	44	7	3	5	13	82	4	1	1	169	219	276	495	107	223	29	5	221	36	-21	-0	-7	-3	+6	-2.6
2025	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	279	257	45	7	3	6	16	75	4	1	1	175	234	296	530	121	220	27	6	239	36	-21	-0	-7	-3	+6	-2.6
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	352	329	81	15	1	8	12	109	4	0	4	246	281	371	652	125	338	31	3	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	352	320	91	18	1	11	20	92	4	0	4	284	333	450	783	166	362	26	6	340	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	388	352	90	19	2	5	25	115	8	1	0	256	321	364	685	108	352	30	6	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	576	522	137	25	8	16	33	133	16	5	4	262	325	433	758	170	320	23	6	330	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	388	340	88	15	1	16	33	109	12	3	0	259	348	450	798	191	327	28	9	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	279	260	44	7	3	5	13	82	4	1	1	169	219	277	496	108	221	29	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	352	333	81	15	1	8	12	109	4	0	4	243	281	366	648	123	328	31	3	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	388	340	88	15	1	16	33	109	12	3	0	259	348	450	798	191	327	28	9	352	124	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	279	260	44	7	3	5	13	82	4	1	1	169	219	277	496	108	221	29	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	352	333	81	15	1	8	12	109	4	0	4	243	281	366	648	123	328	31	3	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BAL	45%	368	340	77	13	2	11	20	102	5	2	1	228	282	377	659	149	289	28	5	292	84	-7	+0	-2	-4	+8	-0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	28	MLB CTX	BAL	45%	158	146	34	6	1	5	9	44	2	1	0	232	286	386	672	154	294	28	6	298	84	-3	+0	-1	-2	+3	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	BAL	48%	372	344	77	13	2	11	20	104	5	1	0	225	279	370	649	145	287	28	5	288	81	-8	+0	-3	-4	+8	-0.8
2028	29	MLB CTX	BAL	48%	177	163	38	7	1	5	10	50	2	1	0	229	283	379	662	150	292	28	6	294	81	-4	+0	-2	-2	+4	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	510	467	104	16	3	15	28	147	11	3	0	223	282	366	648	143	290	29	5	289	91	-12	+1	-9	-19	+11	-2.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	595	132	20	4	19	36	187	14	4	0	222	282	365	646	143	288	29	6	289	91	-15	+1	-12	-24	+14	-3.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2705	2468	592	107	19	72	155	749	54	13	9	240	299	386	685	146	311	28	6	302	91	-23	+1	-13	-25	+23	-3.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	143	26	5	17	37	180	13	3	2	241	300	388	688	147	313	28	6	302	91	-14	+1	-8	-15	+14	-2.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#2Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	2.6	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
/162	664	24	2	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#3Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.9	616	18	4	223	281	366	-7	-9	-0.3	-0.2
/162	664	19	4	-7.1	-9.9	-0.3	pk7: -0
#4Rocky Nelson'49-'61 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,555 PA	2.3	1,555	31	7	241*	307*	388*	-27	-8	-1.9	-0.7
/162	664	13	3	-11.6	-3.5	-0.8	pk7: 0
#5Seth Brownlast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,799 PA	2.7	1,799	74	24	227	293	421	-23	-34	-0.8	-0.8
/162	664	27	9	-8.6	-12.4	-0.3	pk7: -1
#6Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Heston Kjerstad (OGILVIE)	28	40	45	55	35	226/280/373	147	289	11	2	28%	6%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luke Allen 2007 · AAA	28	44→43	48→50	49→45	45	227/276/368	140	272	16	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	243/293/360	117	284	12	7	18%	6%	84	+0.1	265/312/362	97	296	8	3	13%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Roger Kieschnick 2015 · MLB	28	41→46	48→55	50→45	40	209/258/352	143	282	15	6	31%	6%	70	-0.9	206/253/339	133	285	15	8	32%	5%	65	-1.2	195/240/323	128	271	15	3	33%	5%	54	-1.5
✕Andy Wilkins 2017 · MLB	28	37→46	50→55	49→45	41	200/249/352	152	248	18	4	28%	6%	67	-1.1	186/252/339	153	251	20	5	33%	8%	65	-1.2	159/232/310	152	211	21	3	36%	8%	50	-0.9
✕Luis Liberato 2023 · AAA	27	44→50	49→50	52→50	44	220/281/373	153	296	16	8	30%	8%	83	+0.1	222/284/351	129	310	12	12	30%	8%	79	-0.2	221/283/333	112	310	9	13	30%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2024 · MLB	27	42→45	50	45→50	44	216/288/369	153	282	18	6	30%	8%	86	+0.3	191/259/345	154	252	19	4	31%	7%	70	-0.9	164/231/315	151	210	19	1	32%	6%	49	-1.5
✕Darick Hall 2023 · MLB	28	40→39	54→55	45→40	42	215/272/392	177	261	22	5	28%	6%	85	+0.2	214/272/352	138	272	18	4	27%	7%	76	-0.4	201/264/311	109	259	15	1	28%	7%	60	-1.0
✕John-Ford Griffin 2008 · AAA	28	39→40	53→55	50→40	42	212/267/383	172	270	21	5	30%	7%	81	-0.1	221/278/362	141	286	14	6	27%	7%	80	-0.2	220/279/349	129	282	11	4	25%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Christin Stewart 2022 · MLB	28	40→48	52→55	47→45	41	213/274/382	170	278	21	4	31%	6%	83	+0.1	205/285/361	156	298	20	10	36%	9%	83	+0.1	174/273/315	142	254	20	11	38%	10%	66	-0.8
✕Ryan Flaherty 2014 · MLB	28	44→47	51→55	47→45	42	228/278/385	156	271	20	6	24%	6%	85	+0.2	217/281/353	136	269	15	4	24%	7%	79	-0.2	214/294/329	115	275	12	2	25%	9%	78	-0.1
✕Ka'ai Tom 2022 · MLB	28	41→49	48→55	49→50	45	207/290/351	144	275	15	6	30%	8%	82	+0.0	207/284/333	126	287	13	10	31%	8%	76	-0.4	192/269/314	122	266	13	10	31%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Jason Cooper 2008 · AAA	27	43→40	49→55	51→45	43	216/278/377	160	284	15	9	29%	7%	83	+0.1	214/283/352	138	270	12	8	24%	7%	80	-0.2	208/290/352	144	247	13	3	21%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Simon Pond 2006 · MLB	29	43→42	49→50	47→45	41	220/273/365	146	288	17	8	30%	6%	79	-0.2	217/270/347	130	291	13	6	29%	7%	73	-0.6	206/261/330	124	275	11	3	28%	7%	65	-1.1
✕Donald Lutz 2016 · MLB	27	44→49	46→50	53→45	38	218/268/353	134	297	13	8	31%	5%	74	-0.6	203/250/289	86	321	8	9	37%	5%	52	-2.2	162/202/210	48	275	4	2	41%	4%	13	-1.9
✕Billy McKinney 2023 · MLB	28	42→52	49→60	54→45	45	212/284/364	152	285	16	5	30%	8%	83	+0.1	218/294/360	142	284	17	7	28%	9%	86	+0.3	207/285/339	131	263	16	6	27%	9%	75	-0.2
✕Tyler Colvin 2014 · MLB	28	43→53	51→60	50→45	40	223/270/387	164	289	18	8	29%	6%	82	+0.0	207/248/322	115	294	10	7	32%	5%	58	-1.7	192/224/287	96	280	5	3	33%	4%	39	-1.7
✕Jordan Patterson 2019 · MLB	27	42→50	50→55	46→50	38	214/283/368	155	298	18	7	33%	6%	84	+0.1	208/273/362	154	308	18	7	37%	5%	79	-0.2	182/243/332	150	277	18	4	40%	4%	58	-1.2
●Danny Dorn 2012 · AAA	28	42→47	51→55	48→45	39	219/271/379	160	292	18	4	31%	6%	81	-0.1	212/270/372	160	274	20	6	29%	6%	80	-0.2	240/293/408	168	294	20	5	25%	6%	95	+0.7
✕Brandon Allen 2014 · MLB	28	42→49	51→55	52→50	45	219/280/385	167	275	19	7	28%	8%	86	+0.3	213/277/348	135	267	15	5	25%	8%	76	-0.4	200/267/319	120	248	14	3	25%	8%	65	-0.8
✕Matt Lloyd 2024 · AA	28	43→42	48→45	48→50	41	214/281/353	139	307	16	9	34%	7%	79	-0.2	214/281/334	120	287	12	12	28%	8%	74	-0.5	205/275/320	116	273	13	12	28%	8%	69	-0.5
✕Matt Cepicky 2005 · MLB	27	46→43	48→50	50→30	41	232/275/377	145	294	16	10	27%	5%	82	-0.0	217/270/353	136	283	14	4	27%	7%	74	-0.5	204/257/337	132	267	13	2	28%	7%	66	-0.8

Heston Kjerstad

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps