Jake Lyons prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jake Lyons P Aberdeen IronBirds

Age 27 RHP 6'5" / 280 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 43 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%22.2%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 43 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	11	80	332	102	37	7	50%	3.6	21.8%	13.9%	7.9%	2.6%	3.62	4.46	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	11	80	332	102	37	7	50%	3.6	30.7%	11.1%	19.6%	2.1%	3.62	3.07	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	5	51	220	55	24	7	29%	3.0	18.3%	12.7%	5.6%	4.0%	4.41	5.38	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	5	51	220	55	24	7	29%	3.0	25.0%	10.9%	14.1%	3.2%	4.41	4.14	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	6	63	272	71	20	6	29%	3.0	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.0%	4.16	4.13	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	6	63	272	71	20	6	29%	3.0	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	3.0%	4.16	4.13	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	21	6	63	272	71	20	6	29%	3.0	26.1%	7.4%	18.8%	2.2%	4.16	3.04	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	BAL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.2%	8.8%	13.4%	3.0%	4.37	4.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	BAL	41	0	43	180	40	16	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.0%	13.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.45	+0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	BAL	15	0	16	68	15	6	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.0%	13.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	66	15	6	2	0%	1.0	22.2%	9.0%	13.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.07	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	77	26	0%	1.1	22.2%	9.0%	13.2%	3.1%	4.41	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		60	22	193	824	167	97	26	37%	3.2	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	3.1%	4.00	4.60	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	23	200	852	173	101	27	37%	3.2	20.3%	11.8%	8.5%	3.1%	4.00	4.60	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Lyons (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.37	22.2%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.45	22.2%	13.2%	43	+0.08	—	—	—
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	77
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	77
Mitch Neunborn R 2023 · 3.65 FIP	26	SP-	3.65	24.5%	9.5%	2.6%	.232	5.11	17.6%	6.7%	206	+1.46	3.65	248	77
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	77
Sam Lewis R 2019 · 3.41 FIP	27	SP-	3.41	21.0%	10.8%	1.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	224	76
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	76
Taylor Grover R 2017 · 4.93 FIP	26	SW	4.93	20.0%	10.9%	3.9%	.320	4.89	16.2%	8.9%	14	-0.04	3.68	239	76
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	74
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	73
Chris Kachmar R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	26	SW	4.82	20.5%	7.8%	4.5%	.319	4.65	18.4%	7.3%	248	-0.17	4.29	360	73
Tyler Yates R 2004 · 4.47 FIP	26	SW	4.47	15.4%	9.6%	2.6%	.333	3.64	22.5%	13.5%	116	-0.83	3.23	248	73
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	73
Andres Santiago R 2017 · 4.16 FIP	27	SW	4.16	16.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.384	5.26	13.1%	3.2%	159	+1.10	3.76	291	73
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	73
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	72
Sean Harney R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	25	SP-	3.55	18.2%	9.8%	1.4%	.285	4.74	16.5%	5.1%	59	+1.19	3.55	123	72
Logan Bawcom R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	27	SW	3.73	16.6%	9.2%	1.6%	.251	4.85	16.0%	6.7%	234	+1.12	3.73	399	72
DJ Baxendale R 2018 · 3.49 FIP	27	SW	3.49	18.1%	6.0%	2.1%	.355	5.71	20.0%	8.3%	49	+2.22	2.88	426	71
J.P. France R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	27	SW	4.44	24.9%	10.9%	3.8%	.301	4.47	18.6%	9.0%	205	+0.03	4.04	577	71
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	43	22.2%	8.9%	1.18	4.39
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Wesley Wright ('15)	1.5	51	22.0%	10.1%	1.11	4.16