Karlos Morales prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Karlos Morales P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 26 LHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 28 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112120vR 129

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%22.0%

BB%14.0%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP28

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 28 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	5	1	10	47	9	4	1	20%	1.9	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.1%	8.38	3.73	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	5	1	10	47	9	4	1	20%	1.9	19.1%	8.5%	10.6%	2.1%	8.38	3.82	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	10	2	29	157	25	20	1	20%	2.9	10.8%	15.9%	-5.1%	0.9%	8.28	4.69	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	10	2	29	157	25	20	1	20%	2.9	15.9%	12.7%	3.2%	0.6%	8.28	3.88	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers Blue	7	4	11	57	8	8	2	57%	1.6	9.5%	17.5%	-8.0%	4.9%	10.64	7.21	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers Blue	7	4	11	57	8	8	2	57%	1.6	14.0%	14.0%	0.0%	3.5%	10.64	6.19	—
2021	21	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers Blue	19	0	29	145	42	14	1	0%	1.5	19.7%	12.1%	7.6%	1.0%	5.34	3.52	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers Blue	19	0	29	145	42	14	1	0%	1.5	29.0%	9.7%	19.3%	0.7%	5.34	2.09	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	0	46	201	55	22	2	0%	1.4	22.1%	11.5%	10.6%	1.5%	2.35	3.51	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	0	46	201	55	22	2	0%	1.4	27.4%	10.9%	16.4%	1.0%	2.35	2.71	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	0	48	222	54	39	3	0%	1.4	18.7%	20.2%	-1.5%	1.6%	4.91	4.97	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	0	48	222	54	39	3	0%	1.4	18.7%	20.2%	-1.5%	1.6%	4.91	4.97	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	33	0	48	222	54	39	3	0%	1.4	24.3%	17.6%	6.8%	1.4%	4.91	4.11	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.0%	14.0%	7.9%	3.0%	5.02	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	MIL	27	0	28	118	26	16	4	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.6%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.99	-0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	MIL	10	0	10	42	9	6	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.6%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	6	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	13.6%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.61	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	117	19	0%	1.1	22.1%	13.6%	8.5%	3.0%	4.98	4.61	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		106	7	172	829	146	124	13	7%	1.6	17.6%	15.0%	2.6%	1.6%	5.43	4.39	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		123	8	200	962	169	144	15	7%	1.6	17.6%	15.0%	2.6%	1.6%	5.43	4.39	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Karlos Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	22.0%	14.0%	3.0%	—	4.99	22.1%	8.5%	28	-0.03	—	—	—
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	89
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	87
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	86
Kevin Chapman L 2014 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	19.6%	11.3%	3.2%	.297	3.30	22.3%	12.4%	137	-1.33	3.01	194	84
Matt Purke L 2016 · 4.25 FIP	26	SU	4.25	19.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.284	3.54	21.4%	8.8%	112	-0.71	3.01	226	84
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	83
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	83
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	83
Trey Jeans L 2022 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	22.3%	16.5%	3.3%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.74	111	82
Mike Gosling L 2007 · 4.67 FIP	26	SU	4.67	19.5%	12.2%	3.0%	.346	5.66	11.4%	2.6%	25	+0.99	4.44	116	82
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	82
Brendan Nail L 2022 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	22.6%	12.5%	2.7%	.311	4.36	19.3%	8.8%	53	+0.09	3.45	165	81
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	81
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.89	22.1%	8.8%	105	-0.31	3.14	161	81
John Bale L 2001 · 4.41 FIP	27	SU	4.41	18.6%	15.0%	1.8%	.219	4.12	19.0%	13.9%	46	-0.29	2.49	168	81
Andy Fisher L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	26	SU	4.20	21.5%	15.4%	1.8%	.333	4.25	17.2%	6.3%	52	+0.05	3.13	167	80
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	80
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	80
Adam McCreery L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	26	SU	4.29	20.7%	14.5%	2.0%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	207	79
Trey Cumbie L 2022 · 5.07 FIP	26	SU	5.07	23.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.215	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	152	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	22.0%	13.8%	1.16	5.00
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82