Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 15 | 8 | 50 | 199 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 53% | 3.3 | 14.0% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 1.44 | 2.63 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | 15 | 8 | 50 | 199 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 53% | 3.3 | 20.6% | 4.5% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 1.44 | 2.00 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 6 | 6 | 33 | 133 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 15.8% | 10.3% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.93 | 4.80 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Kingsport Mets | 6 | 6 | 33 | 133 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 23.3% | 8.3% | 15.0% | 2.3% | 1.93 | 3.41 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 25 | 112 | 467 | 109 | 31 | 8 | 93% | 4.1 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 3.62 | 4.00 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 25 | 112 | 467 | 109 | 31 | 8 | 93% | 4.1 | 23.3% | 6.6% | 16.7% | 1.7% | 3.62 | 2.91 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 99 | 406 | 110 | 24 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.4% | 6.7% | 14.7% | 5.8% | 3.83 | 5.32 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 20 | 99 | 406 | 110 | 24 | 17 | 100% | 4.9 | 27.1% | 5.9% | 21.2% | 4.2% | 3.83 | 3.84 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 26 | 133 | 563 | 143 | 46 | 19 | 90% | 4.6 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 3.92 | 4.92 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 29 | 26 | 133 | 563 | 143 | 46 | 19 | 90% | 4.6 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 3.4% | 3.92 | 3.84 | +2.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 133 | 593 | 120 | 72 | 20 | 93% | 4.8 | 18.6% | 12.6% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 5.21 | 5.12 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 26 | 133 | 593 | 120 | 72 | 20 | 93% | 4.8 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 5.21 | 4.87 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 15 | 118 | 479 | 117 | 56 | 10 | 39% | 3.1 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 2.1% | 2.74 | 3.76 | +2.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 15 | 118 | 479 | 117 | 56 | 10 | 39% | 3.1 | 24.4% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 2.1% | 2.74 | 3.64 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 58 | 2 | 70 | 295 | 61 | 30 | 4 | 3% | 1.2 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 1.5% | 3.73 | 3.55 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 58 | 2 | 70 | 295 | 61 | 30 | 4 | 3% | 1.2 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 1.4% | 3.73 | 3.39 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | San Francisco Giants | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 22.50 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 40 | 0 | 42 | 179 | 41 | 22 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 4.16 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | SF | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 2.4% | 4.16 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 44 | 195 | 46 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 23.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.99 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | SF | — | — | 44 | 187 | 46 | 26 | 6 | — | — | 24.8% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 4.99 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 60 | 33 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 56 | 0 | 59 | 250 | 55 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 52 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 49 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | SF | 57 | 0 | 60 | 253 | 57 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.39 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | SF | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.60 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | SF | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 12.9% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.83 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 299 | 15 | 400 | 1685 | 382 | 208 | 41 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 4.16 | 4.08 | +6.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 149 | 8 | 200 | 843 | 191 | 104 | 21 | 5% | 1.3 | 22.7% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 2.4% | 4.16 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 224 | 128 | 750 | 3151 | 623 | 305 | 103 | 57% | 3.3 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 3.69 | 4.45 | +8.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 34 | 200 | 841 | 166 | 81 | 27 | 57% | 3.3 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | 3.69 | 4.45 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Buttó (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.2% | 12.1% | 2.4% | — | 4.74 | 21.9% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.36 | — | — | — |
| Sam Lewis R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 71 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2027 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 69 |
| Austin Bergner R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 19.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | .278 | 6.71 | 16.4% | 2.4% | 16 | +2.71 | 4.00 | 464 | 68 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 68 |
| Fabio Castillo R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.00 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 195 | 66 |
| Jefry Rodriguez R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.06 | 19.4% | 13.5% | 3.4% | .287 | 4.47 | 19.8% | 6.8% | 64 | -0.59 | 3.21 | 578 | 65 |
| Kolton Mahoney R 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 19.4% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 302 | 65 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 65 |
| Preston Johnson R 2024 · 3.47 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.47 | 146 | 64 |
| Casey Sadler R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.90 | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .298 | 3.37 | 23.2% | 16.5% | 145 | -0.53 | 2.22 | 385 | 64 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 64 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 64 |
| Chris Bassitt R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.00 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.74 | 21.7% | 14.1% | 336 | -0.26 | 3.02 | 1,507 | 63 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 63 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 62 |
| Calvin Drummond R 2024 · 3.51 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.51 | 16.9% | 11.1% | 0.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 112 | 62 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.72 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 4.0% | .311 | 5.88 | 16.9% | 4.6% | 74 | +1.16 | 3.33 | 258 | 62 |
| Luke Farrell R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 24.9% | 11.7% | 3.2% | .269 | 4.61 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 25 | +0.35 | 3.84 | 584 | 62 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 62 |
| Trent Sellers R 2024 · 5.09 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.09 | 23.5% | 14.2% | 4.0% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 236 | 61 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 55 | 22.2% | 12.5% | 1.05 | 4.51 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |