Gerald Ogando

P Norfolk Tides

Age 27 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs AAA

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	23	MIX3 levels	33	44	5.48	3.73	27.9%	14.7%	—	K 20.0% · BB 17.8% · FIP 5.00
2025	25	AABAL	36	50	3.58	2.58	27.1%	10.1%	—	K 21.9% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.14
2026	26	MIX2 levels	44	50	4.89	3.66	26.6%	16.2%	—	K 22.2% · BB 15.4% · FIP 3.97
2027PROJ	27	MLBBAL	57	60	4.75	4.75	21.7%	13.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	28	MLBBAL	24	25	4.76	4.79	21.7%	13.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ59% MLB	29	MLBBAL	31	33	4.82	4.89	21.6%	13.4%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control45Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Armando Rivero (age 27) · Grant Black (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%21.7%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	6	0	16	76	15	7	1	0%	2.7	13.4%	11.5%	1.9%	1.8%	7.16	4.44	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	6	0	16	76	15	7	1	0%	2.7	19.7%	9.2%	10.5%	1.3%	7.16	3.34	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs 1	12	11	52	220	35	22	3	92%	4.3	10.8%	12.5%	-1.7%	1.9%	3.29	4.82	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs 1	12	11	52	220	35	22	3	92%	4.3	15.9%	10.0%	5.9%	1.4%	3.29	3.77	—
2019	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	9	7	34	142	35	15	1	78%	3.8	16.8%	13.2%	3.6%	1.0%	3.18	3.90	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	9	7	34	142	35	15	1	78%	3.8	24.6%	10.6%	14.1%	0.7%	3.18	2.75	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	31	136	31	9	3	0%	1.4	17.2%	7.7%	9.4%	3.1%	3.19	4.34	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	31	136	31	9	3	0%	1.4	22.8%	6.6%	16.2%	2.2%	3.19	3.23	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	0	31	119	27	9	3	0%	1.5	19.4%	9.7%	9.8%	4.1%	3.23	4.95	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	0	31	119	27	9	3	0%	1.5	22.7%	7.6%	15.1%	2.5%	3.23	3.49	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	0	44	204	57	30	4	0%	1.3	20.0%	17.8%	2.3%	2.4%	5.48	5.00	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	0	44	204	57	30	4	0%	1.3	27.9%	14.7%	13.2%	2.0%	5.48	3.73	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	36	0	50	218	59	22	2	0%	1.4	21.9%	11.1%	10.8%	0.9%	3.58	3.14	—
2025	25	AA MLE	Chesapeake Baysox	36	0	50	218	59	22	2	0%	1.4	21.9%	11.1%	10.8%	0.9%	3.58	3.14	—
2025	25	AA RAW	Chesapeake Baysox	36	0	50	218	59	22	2	0%	1.4	27.1%	10.1%	17.0%	0.9%	3.58	2.58	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	50	229	61	37	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	15.4%	6.8%	1.4%	4.89	3.97	—
2026	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	50	229	61	37	3	0%	1.1	22.2%	15.4%	6.8%	1.4%	4.89	3.97	—
2026	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	50	229	61	37	3	0%	1.1	26.6%	16.2%	10.5%	1.3%	4.89	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	27	MLB	BAL	57	0	60	253	55	35	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	13.8%	7.9%	2.5%	4.75	4.75	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	55	0	58	244	53	33	6	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.5%	8.3%	2.6%	4.76	4.79	-0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	BAL	52	0	55	233	50	31	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	2.8%	4.82	4.89	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	24	0	25	106	23	14	3	0%	1.0	21.7%	13.5%	8.3%	2.6%	4.76	4.79	-0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	BAL	31	0	33	139	30	19	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	2.8%	4.82	4.89	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		54	0	57	241	52	32	7	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	2.7%	4.79	4.46	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	112	25	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.4%	8.2%	2.7%	4.79	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		183	18	308	1344	244	173	26	10%	1.7	18.1%	12.9%	5.3%	2.0%	4.09	4.27	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	12	200	872	158	112	17	10%	1.7	18.1%	12.9%	5.3%	2.0%	4.09	4.27	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerald Ogando (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	21.7%	13.8%	2.5%	—	4.84	21.7%	8.3%	113	+0.09	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	87
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	87
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	87
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	85
Cole Uvila R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	27	SU	4.06	20.4%	13.2%	1.8%	.360	3.16	20.2%	6.3%	44	-0.90	3.16	155	85
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	84
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	84
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	84
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.19 FIP	27	SU	4.19	20.1%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.04	2.92	140	84
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	83
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	83
Jason Boyd R 2000 · 3.68 FIP	27	SU	3.68	19.9%	12.4%	1.2%	.346	4.86	13.9%	2.8%	81	+1.18	3.68	128	83
Joe Record R 2022 · 3.78 FIP	27	SU	3.78	20.1%	13.0%	1.3%	.333	3.43	21.1%	10.2%	112	-0.35	2.64	280	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Francisco Rodriguez R 2010 · 4.33 FIP	27	SU	4.33	17.2%	11.0%	2.4%	.283	5.00	11.9%	3.4%	14	+0.67	3.16	334	83
Jeff Johnson R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	27	SU	3.69	23.6%	15.6%	1.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	160	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	57	21.7%	13.5%	1.02	4.78
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43