James Karinchak
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.2
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.00
FIP4.51
xFIP4.97
SIERA4.36
K%25.2%
BB%12.8%
K-BB%12.4%
IP28
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF6565
CTRL2525
CMD6060
K†6565
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p7929.8%
K%
p9030.4%
xwOBA vs
p360.328
FB-2.9
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | AA | Akron RubberDucks | 42 | 0 | 49 | 203 | 81 | 36 | 2 | 32.4% | 18.3% | 1.2% | 1.29 | 3.34 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 23 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 35 | 0 | 36 | 147 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 47.4% | 17.5% | 2.9% | 2.52 | 2.89 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 27 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 48.6% | 13.8% | 0.9% | 2.67 | 1.25 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 67 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 87 | 35 | 10 | 33.2% | 13.6% | 3.6% | 3.96 | 4.03 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 50 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 79 | 32 | 2 | 36.1% | 15.3% | 1.1% | 2.88 | 2.57 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 68 | 0 | 62 | 267 | 94 | 40 | 7 | 33.3% | 15.2% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.66 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.70 | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 24 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 24.7% | 17.4% | 2.0% | 2.45 | 4.32 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 3.18 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 28 | — | 28 | 119 | 33 | 15 | 4 | 27.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | 3.87 | 4.41 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 34 | 143 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 29.3% | 12.2% | 3.2% | 3.75 | 3.67 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 27 | — | 27 | 114 | 31 | 15 | 3 | 27.1% | 13.1% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 4.51 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 326 | 0 | 327 | 1372 | 491 | 215 | 30 | 35.8% | 15.7% | 2.2% | 2.89 | 3.26 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 200 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 301 | 132 | 18 | 35.8% | 15.7% | 2.2% | 2.89 | 3.26 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Karinchak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 27.7% | 13.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.51 | 27.1% | 14.0% | 27 | +0.10 | — | — | — |
| John Axford R 2028 · 3.28 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.28 | 24.8% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .333 | 3.94 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 141 | +0.66 | 3.28 | 197 | 79 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.42 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 2.3% | .356 | 3.13 | 30.1% | 22.1% | 127 | -0.29 | 2.26 | 317 | 70 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.28 | 26.6% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .260 | 5.25 | 27.8% | 17.4% | 99 | +0.97 | 2.67 | 382 | 70 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 69 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 69 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.40 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.14 | 4.26 | 258 | 67 |
| Shelby Miller R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.29 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 3.1% | .278 | 3.56 | 24.9% | 16.4% | 151 | -0.73 | 2.77 | 694 | 66 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 66 |
| Matt Barnes R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.50 | 30.4% | 12.7% | 4.3% | .259 | 3.27 | 28.2% | 18.8% | 116 | -1.23 | 2.49 | 495 | 66 |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.66 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.1% | .304 | 4.07 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 46 | +0.41 | 3.01 | 302 | 66 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 65 |
| Luke Barker R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.74 | 261 | 65 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 65 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.71 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.3% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 168 | 64 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 64 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.10 | 19.8% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .333 | 5.03 | 15.8% | 7.4% | 182 | -0.07 | 2.39 | 676 | 64 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.62 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | .287 | 3.18 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.44 | 2.56 | 268 | 64 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.35 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.44 | 2.91 | 210 | 64 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.92 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.7% | .307 | 3.37 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 116 | -0.55 | 2.26 | 279 | 63 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.