James Karinchak

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	28	AAACLE	7	7	2.70	2.20	41.4%	20.7%	—	K 41.4% · BB 20.7% · FIP 2.23
2025	29	AAACWS	24	29	2.45	4.16	28.1%	16.5%	—	K 24.2% · BB 14.9% · FIP 4.08
2026	30	MIX2 levels	46	52	2.94	3.18	33.3%	10.5%	0.9	K 30.8% · BB 8.8% · FIP 3.36
2027PROJ	31	MLBATL	52	55	3.82	3.93	30.1%	10.3%	0.4
2028PROJ95% MLB	32	MLBATL	44	46	4.04	4.19	29.3%	10.7%	0.2
2029PROJ95% MLB	33	MLBATL	38	40	4.30	4.47	28.5%	11.1%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

K%90

FB Velo54

xwOBA vs36

CompsHirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Oliver Drake (age 31) · Justin Miller (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA3.82

FIP3.93

K%30.1%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%19.8%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2525

CMD6060

K†7070

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p9030.4%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	49	203	81	36	2	0%	1.2	32.4%	18.3%	14.1%	1.2%	1.29	3.34	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	49	203	81	36	2	0%	1.2	39.9%	17.7%	22.2%	1.0%	1.29	2.52	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	35	0	36	147	82	18	2	0%	1.0	47.4%	17.5%	29.9%	2.9%	2.52	2.89	+0.7
2019	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	35	0	36	147	82	18	2	0%	1.0	55.8%	12.2%	43.5%	1.4%	2.52	0.74	+1.6
2020	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	27	0	27	109	53	15	1	0%	1.0	48.6%	13.8%	34.9%	0.9%	2.67	1.24	+1.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	27	0	27	109	53	15	1	0%	1.0	48.6%	13.8%	34.9%	0.9%	2.67	1.32	+1.1
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	61	259	87	35	10	0%	0.9	33.2%	13.6%	19.6%	3.8%	3.96	4.13	+0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	67	0	61	259	87	35	10	0%	0.9	33.6%	13.5%	20.1%	3.9%	3.96	4.09	+0.3
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	50	213	79	32	2	0%	1.0	36.1%	15.3%	20.8%	0.9%	2.88	2.50	+1.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	50	213	79	32	2	0%	1.0	37.1%	15.0%	22.1%	0.9%	2.88	2.38	+1.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	62	267	94	40	7	0%	0.9	33.0%	14.5%	18.5%	2.7%	3.61	3.60	+0.7
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	62	267	94	40	7	0%	0.9	35.2%	15.0%	20.2%	2.6%	3.61	3.47	+0.8
2024	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	7	0	7	29	12	6	0	0%	1.0	41.4%	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.23	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	7	0	7	29	12	6	0	0%	1.0	41.4%	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.23	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	7	0	7	29	12	6	0	0%	1.0	41.4%	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.20	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	24	0	29	121	34	20	3	0%	1.2	24.2%	14.9%	9.3%	2.1%	2.45	4.08	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	24	0	29	121	34	20	3	0%	1.2	24.2%	14.9%	9.3%	2.1%	2.45	4.08	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	24	0	29	121	34	20	3	0%	1.2	28.1%	16.5%	11.6%	2.5%	2.45	4.16	—
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	210	70	22	6	0%	1.1	30.8%	8.8%	22.0%	3.2%	2.94	3.36	+0.7
2026	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	52	210	70	22	6	0%	1.1	30.8%	8.8%	22.0%	3.2%	2.94	3.36	+0.7
2026	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	52	210	70	22	6	0%	1.1	33.3%	10.5%	22.9%	2.9%	2.94	3.18	+0.9
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			183	0	175	734	261	101	19	0%	1.0	35.6%	13.8%	21.8%	2.6%	3.03	3.26	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	ATL	52	0	55	232	70	24	7	0%	1.1	30.1%	10.3%	19.8%	3.1%	3.82	3.93	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	ATL	46	0	48	204	60	22	7	0%	1.1	29.3%	10.7%	18.6%	3.3%	4.04	4.19	+0.2
2029	33	MLB MLE	ATL	40	0	42	176	50	20	6	0%	1.0	28.5%	11.1%	17.3%	3.6%	4.30	4.47	+0.0
2030	34	MLB MLE	ATL	33	0	35	147	41	17	6	0%	1.1	27.6%	11.6%	15.9%	3.9%	4.58	4.77	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	ATL	44	0	46	194	57	21	6	0%	1.0	29.3%	10.7%	18.6%	3.3%	4.04	4.19	+0.2
2029	33	MLB CTX	ATL	38	0	40	169	48	19	6	0%	1.1	28.5%	11.1%	17.3%	3.6%	4.30	4.47	+0.0
2030	34	MLB CTX	ATL	30	0	31	131	36	15	5	0%	1.0	27.6%	11.6%	15.9%	3.9%	4.58	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		294	0	292	1228	402	156	37	0%	1.0	32.7%	12.7%	20.1%	3.0%	3.53	3.58	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		201	0	200	840	275	107	25	0%	1.0	32.7%	12.7%	20.1%	3.0%	3.53	3.58	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		366	0	373	1558	545	227	36	0%	1.0	35.0%	14.6%	20.4%	2.3%	2.90	3.25	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		196	0	200	835	292	122	19	0%	1.0	35.0%	14.6%	20.4%	2.3%	2.90	3.25	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 42 IPFIP 2.90 → 3.36 (+0.46)K% 35.8% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.84%	—	×0.860	30.82%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.83%	—	×0.900	8.84%
HR / BF /BF	2.89%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.18%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.90 → 3.36, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 29 IPFIP 4.18 → 4.08 (−0.10)K% 28.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.10%	—	×0.860	24.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.53%	—	×0.900	14.88%
HR / BF /BF	2.48%	÷1.320	×1.100	2.07%

Result: FIP 4.18 → 4.08, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAColumbus Clippers · 7 IPFIP 2.23 → 2.45 (+0.23)K% 41.4% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	41.38%	—	×0.860	35.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.69%	—	×0.900	18.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.060	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.23 → 2.45, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAColumbus Clippers · 23 IPFIP 1.69 → 2.07 (+0.38)K% 43.8% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	43.75%	—	×0.860	37.62%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.54%	—	×0.900	12.19%
HR / BF /BF	1.04%	÷1.037	×1.100	1.10%

Result: FIP 1.69 → 2.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAColumbus Clippers · 11 IPFIP 3.02 → 3.48 (+0.46)K% 32.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.08%	—	×0.880	28.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	20.75%	—	×1.050	21.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.001	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.02 → 3.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAColumbus Clippers · 6 IPFIP 3.80 → 4.41 (+0.60)K% 37.5% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.880	33.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.50%	—	×1.050	13.12%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.034	×1.100	4.43%

Result: FIP 3.80 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 17 IPFIP 2.07 → 2.89 (+0.82)K% 53.8% → 47.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	53.85%	—	×0.880	47.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.67%	—	×1.050	17.50%
HR / BF /BF	2.56%	÷0.985	×1.100	2.86%

Result: FIP 2.07 → 2.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAkron RubberDucks · 10 IPFIP -1.83 → -0.69 (+1.14)K% 66.7% → 54.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	66.67%	—	×0.810	54.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.56%	—	×1.100	6.11%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.863	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 73).

Result: FIP -1.83 → -0.69, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Karinchak (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.93	30.1%	10.3%	3.1%	—	4.45	28.5%	17.5%	125	+0.52	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	76
Oliver Drake R 2018 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	24.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.348	3.25	33.5%	25.4%	80	+0.20	2.26	317	70
Justin Miller R 2018 · 4.24 FIP	31	SU	4.24	27.9%	7.4%	4.7%	.248	4.82	24.8%	18.8%	66	+0.58	2.63	292	69
Aquilino López R 2005 · 3.10 FIP	30	SU	3.10	30.6%	8.3%	2.8%	.333	3.89	16.2%	10.5%	96	+0.79	3.10	207	69
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	67
C.C. Lee R 2018 · 3.03 FIP	31	SU	3.03	34.7%	9.1%	3.1%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	149	66
Robert Suarez R 2022 · 2.92 FIP	31	SU	2.92	31.9%	11.0%	2.0%	.238	3.15	24.9%	19.3%	162	+0.23	1.95	291	66
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	65
John Axford R 2014 · 4.10 FIP	31	SU	4.10	25.9%	13.6%	2.7%	.262	3.79	22.1%	10.8%	142	-0.31	1.90	518	64
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	64
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	64
Kiko Calero R 2006 · 2.77 FIP	31	SU	2.77	27.8%	8.7%	1.7%	.309	2.92	24.0%	13.4%	101	+0.15	2.27	298	64
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	63
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.51	246	63
James Hoyt R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	24.4%	8.3%	2.3%	.269	4.63	22.1%	11.3%	92	+1.27	1.61	312	63
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	63
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	62
Blake Parker R 2016 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.73	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.52	2.52	406	62
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	2.60	292	62
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	335	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	44	32.2%	12.4%	1.17	3.59
Corey Knebel ('22)	1.5	51	31.7%	11.2%	1.00	3.26
Brad Boxberger ('23)	2.4	43	28.7%	11.5%	1.19	3.50
Victor Cruz ('78-'83, 5 WAR*)	1.4	54	35.3%*	11.5%*	1.30*	3.24*
Mike Gonzalez ('03-'13, 7 WAR*)	2.2	49	29.1%*	10.7%*	0.94*	3.18*
Rod Scurry ('80-'88, 5 WAR*)	2.3	58	29.6%*	13.6%*	0.91*	3.67*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*