James Karinchak
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 25 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 96
ERA3.80
FIP4.05
K%29.5%
BB%14.6%
K-BB%14.9%
ROS IP25
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 61 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p7929.8%
K%
p9030.4%
xwOBA vs
p360.328
FB-2.9
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 49 | 203 | 81 | 36 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 32.4% | 18.3% | 14.1% | 1.3% | 1.29 | 3.37 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 49 | 203 | 81 | 36 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 39.9% | 17.7% | 22.2% | 1.0% | 1.29 | 2.52 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 35 | 0 | 36 | 147 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 47.4% | 17.5% | 29.9% | 2.9% | 2.52 | 2.91 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 35 | 0 | 36 | 147 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 55.8% | 12.2% | 43.5% | 1.4% | 2.52 | 0.74 | +1.6 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 27 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 48.6% | 13.8% | 34.9% | 0.9% | 2.67 | 1.24 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 27 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 53 | 15 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 48.6% | 13.8% | 34.9% | 0.9% | 2.67 | 1.32 | +1.0 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 87 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.2% | 13.6% | 19.6% | 3.8% | 3.96 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 67 | 0 | 61 | 259 | 87 | 35 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.6% | 13.5% | 20.1% | 3.9% | 3.96 | 4.09 | +0.3 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 79 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 36.1% | 15.3% | 20.8% | 0.9% | 2.88 | 2.50 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 50 | 213 | 79 | 32 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 37.1% | 15.0% | 22.1% | 0.9% | 2.88 | 2.38 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 62 | 267 | 94 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.3% | 15.2% | 18.1% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 0 | 62 | 267 | 94 | 40 | 7 | 0% | 0.9 | 35.2% | 15.0% | 20.2% | 2.6% | 3.61 | 3.47 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 41.4% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 2.23 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 7 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 41.4% | 20.7% | 20.7% | 0.0% | 2.70 | 2.20 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 24 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 17.4% | 7.4% | 1.7% | 2.45 | 4.12 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 24 | 0 | 29 | 121 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 28.1% | 16.5% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 2.45 | 4.16 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 30 | 0 | 35 | 137 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 33.4% | 8.4% | 25.0% | 3.3% | 2.29 | 3.15 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.5% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | ATL | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 31 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 29.5% | 14.6% | 14.9% | 2.9% | 3.80 | 4.05 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 61 | 244 | 78 | 29 | 7 | — | — | 31.8% | 11.7% | 20.1% | 2.9% | 2.92 | 3.53 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 35 | 148 | 78 | 29 | 7 | — | — | 52.5% | 19.4% | 33.1% | 4.8% | 5.07 | 3.76 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 46 | 0 | 49 | 205 | 56 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 15.5% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 50 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 15.9% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ATL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 53 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.2% | 15.5% | 11.7% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 48 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.4% | 15.9% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 4.92 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 292 | 0 | 290 | 1216 | 393 | 176 | 34 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.3% | 14.4% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 3.63 | 3.74 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 202 | 0 | 200 | 840 | 271 | 122 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.3% | 14.4% | 17.9% | 2.8% | 3.63 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 350 | 0 | 356 | 1485 | 528 | 225 | 33 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.6% | 15.1% | 20.4% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 3.25 | +9.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 196 | 0 | 200 | 833 | 296 | 126 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 35.6% | 15.1% | 20.4% | 2.2% | 2.83 | 3.25 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Karinchak (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 28.7% | 15.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.96 | 26.8% | 11.1% | 94 | +0.38 | — | — | — |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 78 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 70 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 68 |
| Oliver Drake R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.54 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 2.5% | .356 | 3.18 | 30.1% | 22.1% | 127 | -0.36 | 2.25 | 317 | 68 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 66 |
| J.J. Hoover R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.26 | 27.4% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .360 | 6.54 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 96 | +2.28 | 4.26 | 258 | 66 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 65 |
| Heath Hembree R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.23 | 26.6% | 9.2% | 4.0% | .260 | 5.40 | 27.8% | 17.4% | 99 | +1.17 | 2.67 | 382 | 65 |
| Matt Barnes R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.28 | 30.4% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .259 | 3.26 | 28.2% | 18.8% | 116 | -1.02 | 2.50 | 495 | 65 |
| José Cisnero R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.02 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | .307 | 3.42 | 24.1% | 12.2% | 116 | -0.60 | 2.28 | 279 | 64 |
| R.J. Alvarez R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.81 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.4% | .304 | 4.03 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 46 | +0.22 | 3.02 | 302 | 64 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 64 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 64 |
| Shelby Miller R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 25.4% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .278 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 16.4% | 151 | -0.59 | 2.93 | 694 | 64 |
| Cody Hall R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.95 | 25.9% | 17.5% | 1.5% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.53 | 134 | 64 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 64 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 63 |
| Leonel Campos R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.78 | 25.7% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .241 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 168 | 63 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 63 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 43 | 27.3% | 15.6% | 1.21 | 4.66 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |