James Karinchak — OGILVIE

James Karinchak P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA3.81

FIP4.00

K%28.3%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%15.1%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2525

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5494.8

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p9030.4%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

FB-2.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	49	203	81	36	2	0%	1.2	32.4%	18.3%	14.1%	1.2%	1.29	3.34	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	49	203	81	36	2	0%	1.2	39.9%	17.7%	22.2%	1.0%	1.29	2.52	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	35	0	36	147	82	18	2	0%	1.0	47.4%	17.5%	29.9%	2.9%	2.52	2.89	+0.7
2019	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	35	0	36	147	82	18	2	0%	1.0	55.8%	12.2%	43.5%	1.4%	2.52	0.74	+1.6
2020	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	27	0	27	109	53	15	1	0%	1.0	48.6%	13.8%	34.9%	0.9%	2.67	1.24	+1.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	27	0	27	109	53	15	1	0%	1.0	48.6%	13.8%	34.9%	0.9%	2.67	1.32	+1.1
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	67	0	61	259	87	35	10	0%	0.9	33.2%	13.6%	19.6%	3.8%	3.96	4.13	+0.3
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	67	0	61	259	87	35	10	0%	0.9	33.6%	13.5%	20.1%	3.9%	3.96	4.09	+0.3
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	50	213	79	32	2	0%	1.0	36.1%	15.3%	20.8%	0.9%	2.88	2.50	+1.2
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	50	213	79	32	2	0%	1.0	37.1%	15.0%	22.1%	0.9%	2.88	2.38	+1.3
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	62	267	94	40	7	0%	0.9	32.5%	14.5%	18.0%	2.7%	3.61	3.64	+0.7
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	0	62	267	94	40	7	0%	0.9	32.5%	14.5%	18.0%	2.7%	3.61	3.64	+0.7
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	0	62	267	94	40	7	0%	0.9	35.2%	15.0%	20.2%	2.6%	3.61	3.47	+0.8
2024	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	7	0	7	29	12	6	0	0%	1.0	41.4%	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.23	—
2024	28	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	7	0	7	29	12	6	0	0%	1.0	41.4%	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.23	—
2024	28	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	7	0	7	29	12	6	0	0%	1.0	41.4%	20.7%	20.7%	0.0%	2.70	2.20	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	24	0	29	121	34	20	3	0%	1.2	23.3%	14.9%	8.4%	2.1%	2.45	4.15	—
2025	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	24	0	29	121	34	20	3	0%	1.2	23.3%	14.9%	8.4%	2.1%	2.45	4.15	—
2025	29	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	24	0	29	121	34	20	3	0%	1.2	28.1%	16.5%	11.6%	2.5%	2.45	4.16	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			183	0	175	734	261	101	19	0%	1.0	35.6%	13.8%	21.8%	2.6%	3.03	3.26	+2.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	43	0	49	193	65	19	5	0%	1.1	30.3%	8.1%	22.2%	2.8%	2.40	3.11	—
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	43	0	49	193	65	19	5	0%	1.1	30.3%	8.1%	22.2%	2.8%	2.40	3.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	ATL	34	0	39	156	57	14	4	0%	1.1	36.5%	9.0%	27.6%	2.6%	2.54	2.56	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	ATL	9	0	10	37	8	5	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	2.7%	1.86	4.47	—
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	ATL	9	0	10	37	8	5	1	0%	1.1	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	2.7%	1.86	4.47	—
ROS	30	MLB MLE	ATL	4	0	4	19	5	2	1	0%	1.1	28.3%	13.2%	15.1%	2.9%	3.81	4.00	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	ATL	4	0	4	17	5	2	0	0%	1.0	28.3%	13.2%	15.1%	2.9%	3.81	4.00	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	ATL	—	—	53	212	70	21	6	—	—	33.2%	10.1%	23.1%	2.6%	2.52	3.18	+0.9
FULL	30	MLB A+C	ATL	—	—	14	59	70	21	6	—	—	118.3%	36.1%	82.2%	9.3%	9.51	2.81	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	ATL	46	0	49	205	54	29	6	0%	1.1	26.4%	14.1%	12.3%	3.2%	4.60	4.77	-0.1
2028	32	MLB MLE	ATL	43	0	45	190	49	28	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	14.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.85	5.02	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	ATL	44	0	46	194	51	27	6	0%	1.0	26.4%	14.1%	12.3%	3.2%	4.60	4.77	-0.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	ATL	41	0	43	182	47	26	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	14.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.85	5.02	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		272	0	269	1128	364	157	32	0%	1.0	32.3%	13.9%	18.3%	2.8%	3.60	3.69	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		202	0	200	840	271	117	24	0%	1.0	32.3%	13.9%	18.3%	2.8%	3.60	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		363	0	370	1541	537	224	35	0%	1.0	34.8%	14.5%	20.3%	2.2%	2.82	3.23	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		196	0	200	834	290	121	19	0%	1.0	34.8%	14.5%	20.3%	2.2%	2.82	3.23	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
James Karinchak (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	27.9%	13.8%	2.9%	—	4.89	26.0%	11.7%	94	+0.40	—	—	—
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	81
Oliver Drake R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	30	SU	3.42	24.7%	9.2%	2.3%	.356	3.18	30.1%	22.1%	127	-0.24	2.26	317	72
Lucas Erceg R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	25.6%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	3.23	21.6%	13.9%	166	-0.28	2.10	346	72
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	71
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	71
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	68
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	67
Blake Wood R 2016 · 3.76 FIP	30	SU	3.76	24.5%	10.6%	2.5%	.307	3.44	25.3%	16.0%	74	-0.32	2.92	210	67
José Cisnero R 2019 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	24.5%	11.2%	2.6%	.307	3.38	24.1%	12.2%	116	-0.52	2.26	279	67
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	67
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	67
J.J. Hoover R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	27.4%	12.7%	3.5%	.360	6.40	17.2%	8.0%	96	+2.08	4.22	258	66
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	66
R.J. Alvarez R 2021 · 3.68 FIP	30	SU	3.68	23.3%	10.8%	2.2%	.304	4.06	19.2%	5.7%	46	+0.38	3.01	302	66
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	66
Heath Hembree R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SU	4.30	26.6%	9.2%	4.2%	.260	5.30	27.8%	17.4%	99	+1.00	2.58	382	65
Shelby Miller R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	30	SU	4.38	25.4%	12.8%	3.3%	.278	3.59	24.9%	16.4%	151	-0.79	2.80	694	65
Leonel Campos R 2017 · 3.70 FIP	30	SU	3.70	25.7%	11.8%	2.3%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	2.62	168	65
Bryan Mitchell R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	20.6%	12.0%	2.5%	.305	5.07	14.4%	3.9%	39	+0.78	2.72	481	65

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	26.6%	14.1%	1.22	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64