Spencer Bengard — OGILVIE

Spencer Bengard P Wichita Wind Surge

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%18.1%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	1	2	8	3	1	0	50%	1.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	2	1	2	8	3	1	0	50%	1.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.52	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	2	1	2	8	3	1	0	50%	1.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.60	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	83	328	72	14	4	42%	4.4	16.4%	5.0%	11.4%	1.6%	1.51	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	8	83	328	72	14	4	42%	4.4	16.4%	5.0%	11.4%	1.6%	1.51	3.21	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	8	83	328	72	14	4	42%	4.4	22.0%	4.3%	17.7%	1.2%	1.51	2.50	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	2	52	218	58	18	4	11%	2.9	19.7%	9.8%	9.9%	2.5%	3.96	4.03	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	2	52	218	58	18	4	11%	2.9	19.7%	9.8%	9.9%	2.5%	3.96	4.03	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	2	52	218	58	18	4	11%	2.9	26.6%	8.3%	18.3%	1.8%	3.96	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	38	1	61	281	67	30	7	3%	1.6	19.3%	11.7%	7.6%	3.0%	5.28	4.60	—
YTD	24	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	38	1	61	281	67	30	7	3%	1.6	19.3%	11.7%	7.6%	3.0%	5.28	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	MIN	38	1	61	281	67	30	7	3%	1.6	23.8%	10.7%	13.2%	2.5%	5.28	3.81	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIN	6	0	6	26	5	2	1	0%	1.0	18.1%	7.9%	10.3%	2.8%	4.48	4.48	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIN	—	—	67	307	72	32	8	—	—	23.4%	10.4%	12.9%	2.5%	5.21	4.59	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIN	72	0	76	320	61	25	9	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.41	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	72	0	76	320	63	25	9	0%	1.1	19.6%	7.9%	11.7%	2.8%	4.39	4.38	+0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIN	71	0	75	316	62	25	9	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	2.9%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIN	69	0	73	307	61	25	9	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.49	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIN	66	0	69	293	57	25	9	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.63	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIN	62	0	65	275	53	24	9	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.8%	10.4%	3.3%	4.71	4.80	-0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIN	31	0	33	139	27	11	4	0%	1.1	19.1%	7.9%	11.2%	2.8%	4.43	4.41	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	49	0	51	215	42	17	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	7.9%	11.7%	2.8%	4.39	4.38	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55	0	58	245	48	20	7	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.1%	11.7%	2.9%	4.40	4.41	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIN	58	0	61	258	51	21	8	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.49	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIN	58	0	61	258	50	22	8	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.5%	11.0%	3.1%	4.56	4.63	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIN	56	0	59	249	48	22	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	8.8%	10.4%	3.3%	4.71	4.80	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		307	0	323	1363	266	113	41	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	3.0%	4.50	4.15	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	70	25	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.3%	11.2%	3.0%	4.50	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		77	12	199	835	154	72	19	16%	2.6	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	3.30	3.87	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	12	200	839	155	72	19	16%	2.6	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	3.30	3.87	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Bengard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	18.1%	7.9%	2.8%	—	4.40	19.5%	11.5%	227	-0.08	—	—	—
Eric Karch R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	16.0%	6.2%	2.3%	.324	4.70	20.3%	16.1%	35	+0.92	3.78	104	90
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	89
J.C. Flowers R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	24	SU	4.02	17.6%	8.9%	2.3%	.263	5.44	15.6%	-0.3%	133	+1.42	3.59	281	88
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	88
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	88
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	87
Ty Weber R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	24	SU	4.08	15.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.288	6.31	8.7%	-1.1%	28	+2.23	4.08	144	87
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	87
Trevor Foss R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	25	SU	4.22	14.5%	5.9%	2.9%	.308	3.77	17.3%	13.8%	42	-0.45	3.77	120	86
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	86
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	86
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	86
Kaleb Fontenot R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	24	SU	4.48	20.7%	8.6%	3.7%	.264	3.71	14.7%	5.2%	69	-0.77	3.71	155	86
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	86
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	85
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	85
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	85
Tyler Joyner R 2019 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	20.7%	9.9%	2.0%	.250	6.38	16.1%	5.2%	37	+2.69	3.69	114	85
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	85
Mick VanVossen R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	24	SU	4.25	18.6%	8.9%	2.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	141	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	72	19.3%	8.2%	1.14	4.48
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86