Spencer Bengard
P
Wichita Wind Surge
Age 24
RHP
6'4" / 220 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 67 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
K%18.1%
BB%8.2%
K-BB%9.9%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 1.0 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.52 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | FCL Twins | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 1.0 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.60 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 8 | 83 | 328 | 72 | 14 | 4 | 42% | 4.4 | 16.4% | 5.0% | 11.4% | 1.6% | 1.51 | 3.21 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 19 | 8 | 83 | 328 | 72 | 14 | 4 | 42% | 4.4 | 22.0% | 4.3% | 17.7% | 1.2% | 1.51 | 2.50 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 2 | 52 | 218 | 58 | 18 | 4 | 11% | 2.9 | 19.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 4.09 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 2 | 52 | 218 | 58 | 18 | 4 | 11% | 2.9 | 26.6% | 8.3% | 18.3% | 1.8% | 3.96 | 2.91 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | 25 | 1 | 42 | 198 | 45 | 22 | 6 | 4% | 1.7 | 18.4% | 12.2% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 6.00 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 51 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 109 | 482 | 96 | 45 | 14 | — | — | 20.0% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 5.10 | 4.75 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 18.1% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 55 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 64 | 0 | 67 | 283 | 56 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 54 | 23 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 24 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIN | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 4.45 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | MIN | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 46 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 175 | 0 | 183 | 774 | 152 | 65 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.09 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 166 | 71 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 64 | 12 | 180 | 752 | 136 | 63 | 18 | 19% | 2.8 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 3.26 | 3.94 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 13 | 200 | 837 | 152 | 70 | 20 | 19% | 2.8 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 2.4% | 3.26 | 3.94 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Spencer Bengard (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 18.1% | 8.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.45 | 19.5% | 11.2% | 203 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Eric Karch R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 16.0% | 6.2% | 2.2% | .324 | 5.07 | 20.3% | 16.1% | 35 | +1.33 | 3.74 | 104 | 87 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .305 | 5.99 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +2.25 | 3.74 | 190 | 87 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.92 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .263 | 5.66 | 16.1% | -1.3% | 133 | +1.74 | 3.39 | 281 | 87 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 87 |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 87 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 87 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 86 |
| Trevor Foss R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.43 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 3.3% | .308 | 3.47 | 17.3% | 13.8% | 42 | -0.96 | 3.47 | 120 | 86 |
| Ty Weber R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.92 | 15.9% | 5.6% | 2.6% | .288 | 6.14 | 8.7% | -1.1% | 28 | +2.22 | 3.92 | 144 | 85 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 85 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 85 |
| Kaleb Fontenot R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.44 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 3.6% | .264 | 3.56 | 14.7% | 5.2% | 69 | -0.88 | 3.56 | 155 | 84 |
| Diego Granado R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.26 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .335 | 4.40 | 15.5% | 1.1% | 40 | -0.86 | 4.40 | 110 | 84 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 84 |
| Josh Advocate R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 75 | +0.01 | 3.58 | 118 | 84 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 84 |
| Tyler Joyner R 2025 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.67 | 20.7% | 9.9% | 1.9% | .250 | 5.82 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 37 | +2.15 | 3.67 | 114 | 84 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 83 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 83 |
| J.R. Graham R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.83 | 3.30 | 125 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 67 | 19.3% | 8.3% | 1.11 | 4.48 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |