Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 13 | 11 | 53 | 218 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 85% | 4.1 | 9.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 2.56 | 3.24 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 13 | 11 | 53 | 218 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 85% | 4.1 | 13.8% | 3.7% | 10.1% | 0.5% | 2.56 | 2.66 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 11 | 2 | 36 | 143 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 18% | 3.3 | 20.9% | 6.1% | 14.8% | 1.0% | 2.97 | 2.65 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | Ogden Raptors | 11 | 2 | 36 | 143 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 18% | 3.3 | 30.8% | 4.9% | 25.9% | 0.7% | 2.97 | 1.61 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 16 | 126 | 510 | 115 | 33 | 9 | 59% | 4.7 | 16.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 2.2% | 3.28 | 3.85 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 16 | 126 | 510 | 115 | 33 | 9 | 59% | 4.7 | 22.5% | 6.5% | 16.1% | 1.8% | 3.28 | 2.99 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 15 | 95 | 449 | 69 | 26 | 9 | 62% | 4.0 | 12.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 4.45 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 15 | 95 | 449 | 69 | 26 | 9 | 62% | 4.0 | 15.4% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 5.31 | 3.70 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 6 | 61 | 274 | 45 | 32 | 5 | 21% | 2.2 | 12.5% | 12.3% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 5.16 | 4.89 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 6 | 61 | 274 | 45 | 32 | 5 | 21% | 2.2 | 16.4% | 11.7% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 5.16 | 4.26 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 59 | 288 | 25 | 46 | 7 | 3% | 1.9 | 7.3% | 17.2% | -10.0% | 2.7% | 5.31 | 6.16 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 1 | 59 | 288 | 25 | 46 | 7 | 3% | 1.9 | 8.7% | 16.0% | -7.3% | 2.4% | 5.31 | 6.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | STL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 3.0% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 34 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | STL | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.27 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 188 | 87 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 4.62 | 4.27 | +2.6 | ||
| Career | — | 134 | 51 | 431 | 1882 | 245 | 170 | 41 | 38% | 3.2 | 13.0% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 4.34 | +5.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 62 | 24 | 200 | 874 | 114 | 79 | 19 | 38% | 3.2 | 13.0% | 9.0% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 4.16 | 4.34 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose E. Martinez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.65 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 37 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Sam Lewis R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.43 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 1.3% | .246 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 224 | 79 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.51 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .348 | 2.88 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.63 | 2.88 | 199 | 78 |
| Taylor Grover R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.89 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.8% | .320 | 4.92 | 16.2% | 8.9% | 14 | +0.03 | 3.63 | 239 | 77 |
| Dawson Netz R 2024 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 77 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.13 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | .315 | 5.25 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.12 | 4.13 | 115 | 76 |
| Edwin Quirarte R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 16.7% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .311 | 3.45 | 12.7% | 4.9% | 83 | -0.14 | 3.21 | 157 | 75 |
| Andres Santiago R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.27 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .384 | 5.45 | 13.1% | 3.2% | 159 | +1.18 | 3.74 | 291 | 75 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.14 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.66 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.48 | 2.38 | 160 | 74 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 74 |
| Noah Davis R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.87 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .368 | 4.57 | 19.3% | 8.1% | 148 | +0.70 | 3.64 | 560 | 74 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 74 |
| Josh Roeder R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 73 |
| Logan Bawcom R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.79 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.7% | .251 | 4.85 | 16.0% | 6.7% | 234 | +1.06 | 3.76 | 399 | 73 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 16.7% | 6.8% | 2.5% | .243 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 167 | 72 |
| Colby Morris R 2024 · 5.76 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.76 | 16.2% | 11.8% | 4.6% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 72 |
| Jorge Reyes R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.25 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 4.4% | .307 | 3.44 | 14.2% | 6.2% | 129 | -1.81 | 3.32 | 227 | 72 |
| Derek Gordon R 2024 · 4.72 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.72 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 3.9% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 146 | 72 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 71 |
| Bud Norris R 2029 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 71 |
| Ben Lively R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.82 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 4.2% | .312 | 3.15 | 20.9% | 12.1% | 77 | -1.67 | 3.15 | 1,049 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 21.5% | 10.2% | 1.17 | 4.61 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |