Alemao Hernandez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alemao Hernandez P Harrisburg Senators

Age 26 LHP 5'8" / 187 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 82 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 120

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%17.2%

BB%6.4%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP82

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	17	ROK MLE	DSL Dodgers 2	12	9	49	193	33	6	1	75%	4.1	11.6%	3.9%	7.7%	0.7%	2.40	3.01	—
2017	17	ROK RAW	DSL Dodgers 2	12	9	49	193	33	6	1	75%	4.1	17.1%	3.1%	14.0%	0.5%	2.40	2.38	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Dodgers	12	0	25	108	26	7	1	0%	2.1	16.4%	8.1%	8.3%	1.3%	1.09	3.46	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Dodgers	12	0	25	108	26	7	1	0%	2.1	24.1%	6.5%	17.6%	0.9%	1.09	2.37	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	21	127	546	91	25	19	78%	4.7	13.6%	4.8%	8.8%	3.8%	4.10	4.65	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	21	127	546	91	25	19	78%	4.7	13.6%	4.8%	8.8%	3.8%	4.10	4.65	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	21	127	546	91	25	19	78%	4.7	16.7%	4.6%	12.1%	3.5%	4.10	4.20	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.2%	6.4%	10.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.55	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	81	342	60	23	11	100%	6.7	17.6%	6.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.54	4.55	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	78	331	66	20	11	100%	6.5	19.8%	6.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.42	4.35	+0.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	75	317	63	20	11	100%	6.8	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	3.4%	4.45	4.47	+0.4
2030	30	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	70	298	58	20	11	100%	6.4	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	3.6%	4.57	4.65	+0.2
2031	31	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	66	277	53	20	11	100%	6.6	19.1%	7.1%	12.0%	3.8%	4.74	4.85	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	30	127	22	8	4	100%	7.5	17.6%	6.6%	11.0%	3.1%	4.54	4.55	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	47	198	39	12	6	100%	6.7	19.8%	6.0%	13.8%	3.2%	4.42	4.35	+0.3
2029	29	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	53	224	44	14	8	100%	6.6	19.8%	6.4%	13.4%	3.4%	4.45	4.47	+0.3
2030	30	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	55	232	45	16	8	100%	6.9	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	3.6%	4.57	4.65	+0.2
2031	31	MLB CTX	WSH	8	8	55	232	44	17	9	100%	6.9	19.1%	7.1%	12.0%	3.8%	4.74	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	36	240	1015	196	67	35	100%	6.7	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	3.5%	4.55	4.21	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	163	56	29	100%	6.7	19.3%	6.6%	12.7%	3.5%	4.55	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		51	30	201	847	115	43	24	59%	3.9	13.5%	5.0%	8.5%	2.8%	3.32	4.12	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	30	200	844	114	42	24	59%	3.9	13.5%	5.0%	8.5%	2.8%	3.32	4.12	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alemao Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	17.2%	6.4%	3.1%	—	4.46	19.1%	12.7%	234	-0.09	—	—	—
Matt Tomshaw L 2015 · 3.91 FIP	26	SP-	3.91	13.8%	6.0%	2.2%	.318	3.57	16.0%	10.7%	401	-0.34	3.04	681	84
Eric Wooten L 2015 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	14.6%	7.5%	2.2%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	116	82
Eric DuBose L 2003 · 3.92 FIP	27	SP-	3.92	14.4%	7.5%	2.0%	.233	5.49	13.7%	0.4%	104	+1.57	3.92	178	82
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	81
Nick Additon L 2015 · 3.73 FIP	27	SP-	3.73	14.0%	7.9%	1.5%	.307	4.15	14.4%	7.1%	106	+0.42	3.13	217	79
Yohan Flande L 2014 · 3.65 FIP	28	SP-	3.65	14.1%	5.8%	1.8%	.266	3.90	14.1%	7.9%	312	+0.25	3.18	394	79
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	78
Pat Misch L 2008 · 5.05 FIP	26	SW	5.05	16.5%	5.7%	4.8%	.268	4.53	10.8%	5.4%	100	-0.52	3.50	265	78
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	78
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	77
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	77
Brian Duensing L 2009 · 3.98 FIP	26	SW	3.98	14.8%	8.4%	1.9%	.286	3.90	15.2%	9.3%	401	-0.08	2.57	799	77
Ben Holmes L 2018 · 4.02 FIP	26	SW	4.02	19.1%	9.3%	2.5%	.264	5.57	19.7%	8.6%	61	+1.55	3.09	451	77
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	76
Jason Wheeler L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	16.1%	5.8%	3.5%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	401	76
Avery Weems L 2022 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	21.3%	8.6%	4.5%	.323	5.13	20.5%	12.3%	38	+0.26	2.46	227	75
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	74
Matt Whitehouse L 2017 · 4.68 FIP	26	SP-	4.68	14.6%	6.1%	3.7%	.291	4.32	18.5%	6.6%	165	-0.36	3.37	353	74
James Gillheeney L 2015 · 3.79 FIP	27	SP-	3.79	14.4%	8.0%	1.6%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	129	74
Tyler Alexander L 2019 · 5.56 FIP	27	SP-	5.56	21.7%	9.8%	5.6%	.289	5.27	15.7%	5.0%	26	-0.29	5.27	128	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	75	18.8%	6.5%	1.30	4.54
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Blas Minor ('97)	1.1	75	19.2%	7.3%	1.16	4.40
Taylor Buchholz ('11)	1.6	78	17.7%	6.6%	1.19	4.28
Joe Biagini ('21)	1.7	83	19.0%	7.9%	1.28	5.03
Travis Harper ('06)	2.1	69	15.0%	7.5%	1.33	4.94
Bob Wells ('02)	3.2	79	15.0%	7.2%	1.43	5.03