Alemao Hernandez
P
Harrisburg Senators
Age 26
LHP
5'8" / 187 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.1 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 82 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 120
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
K%21.2%
BB%8.3%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP82
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 82 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 12 | 9 | 49 | 193 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 75% | 4.1 | 11.6% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 0.7% | 2.40 | 3.01 | — |
| 2017 | 17 | ROK | DSL Dodgers 2 | 12 | 9 | 49 | 193 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 75% | 4.1 | 17.1% | 3.1% | 14.0% | 0.5% | 2.40 | 2.38 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 12 | 0 | 25 | 108 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 16.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 1.3% | 1.09 | 3.46 | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | AZL Dodgers | 12 | 0 | 25 | 108 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0% | 2.1 | 24.1% | 6.5% | 17.6% | 0.9% | 1.09 | 2.37 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 21 | 127 | 546 | 91 | 25 | 19 | 78% | 4.7 | 13.7% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.10 | 4.52 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 21 | 127 | 546 | 91 | 25 | 19 | 78% | 4.7 | 16.7% | 4.6% | 12.1% | 3.5% | 4.10 | 4.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 82 | 347 | 74 | 29 | 11 | 100% | 6.8 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 81 | 342 | 73 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 6.7 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 78 | 331 | 77 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.5 | 23.2% | 7.6% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 75 | 317 | 73 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.8 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 11 | 11 | 70 | 298 | 67 | 25 | 11 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.47 | 4.56 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 66 | 277 | 62 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.6 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 3.8% | 4.64 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 61 | 257 | 56 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.8 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 4.85 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 4 | 4 | 30 | 127 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 7.5 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 7 | 7 | 47 | 198 | 46 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 6.7 | 23.2% | 7.6% | 15.6% | 3.2% | 4.31 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 53 | 224 | 51 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.6 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 55 | 232 | 53 | 19 | 8 | 100% | 6.9 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 4.47 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 55 | 232 | 52 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.9 | 22.2% | 8.6% | 13.6% | 3.8% | 4.64 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 53 | 224 | 49 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.6 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 4.0% | 4.85 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 44 | 44 | 293 | 1239 | 278 | 103 | 44 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.4% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.20 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 30 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 190 | 70 | 30 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.4% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 3.5% | 4.52 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 51 | 30 | 201 | 847 | 115 | 44 | 22 | 59% | 3.9 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.32 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 115 | 44 | 22 | 59% | 3.9 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 3.32 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alemao Hernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 21.2% | 8.3% | 3.1% | — | 4.36 | 22.5% | 14.5% | 234 | -0.07 | — | — | — |
| T.J. Sikkema L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.39 | 18.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | .282 | 4.13 | 16.2% | 7.0% | 87 | +0.74 | 3.39 | 300 | 82 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.27 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 5.0% | .289 | 5.37 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 26 | +0.10 | 5.27 | 128 | 81 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 81 |
| Nico Tellache L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 80 |
| Danny Wirchansky L 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% | .246 | 6.63 | 13.0% | 0.2% | 68 | +1.65 | 4.98 | 179 | 79 |
| Ben Holmes L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .264 | 5.63 | 19.7% | 8.6% | 61 | +1.74 | 3.12 | 451 | 78 |
| Avery Weems L 2025 · 5.13 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.13 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 5.0% | .323 | 5.19 | 20.5% | 12.3% | 38 | +0.06 | 2.46 | 227 | 76 |
| Eric Wooten L 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.16 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.5% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 116 | 76 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2024 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 75 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.52 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 116 | 75 |
| Justin Marks L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.4% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .323 | 3.78 | 19.0% | 9.1% | 216 | -0.78 | 3.75 | 324 | 75 |
| Dylan Dodd L 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 4.4% | .338 | 4.05 | 26.4% | 21.5% | 100 | -0.83 | 3.41 | 452 | 75 |
| Matt Tomshaw L 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.95 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .318 | 3.49 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 401 | -0.46 | 2.95 | 681 | 75 |
| Nick Additon L 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.0% | 7.9% | 1.6% | .307 | 4.62 | 14.4% | 7.1% | 106 | +0.84 | 3.06 | 217 | 73 |
| Chipper Smith L 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 72 |
| Ken Waldichuk L 2025 · 4.90 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.90 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | .303 | 5.70 | 22.3% | 4.9% | 51 | +0.80 | 3.42 | 432 | 72 |
| Houston Harding L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.5% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .268 | 5.21 | 12.2% | 0.1% | 54 | +0.47 | 3.39 | 232 | 72 |
| Eric Surkamp L 2028 · 4.29 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.29 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .308 | 5.15 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 68 | +0.86 | 4.29 | 182 | 71 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2023 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 71 |
| Jason Wheeler L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.1% | 5.8% | 4.1% | .304 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 401 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 73 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 1.32 | 4.48 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |