Rafael Lantigua
2B Buffalo Bisons| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 570 | .258/.365/.326 | 4 | 19 | 75 | — | .246/.320/.303 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 615 | .238/.360/.343 | 10 | 22 | 76 | — | .213/.303/.294 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAATOR | 223 | .190/.285/.282 | 3 | 4 | 24 | — | .153/.222/.217 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBTOR | 14 | .224/.301/.305 | 0 | 0 | 74 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBTOR | 45 | .222/.299/.303 | 0 | 1 | 72 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 256 | 218 | 62 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 33 | 32 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 284 | 383 | 376 | 760 | 92 | 328 | 12 | 13 | 343 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 237 | 198 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 40 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 288 | 403 | 374 | 776 | 86 | 357 | 17 | 14 | 357 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 364 | 335 | 85 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 23 | 58 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 254 | 306 | 373 | 679 | 119 | 292 | 16 | 6 | 301 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 30 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 192 | 300 | 231 | 531 | 38 | 263 | 23 | 10 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 347 | 300 | 84 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 76 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 376 | 470 | 846 | 190 | 341 | 22 | 12 | 375 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 179 | 161 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 35 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 286 | 350 | 373 | 723 | 87 | 349 | 20 | 9 | 325 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 368 | 328 | 88 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 70 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 268 | 346 | 402 | 748 | 134 | 327 | 19 | 10 | 336 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 578 | 465 | 142 | 40 | 0 | 12 | 98 | 107 | 5 | 28 | 9 | 305 | 431 | 469 | 900 | 163 | 366 | 19 | 17 | 398 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 77 | 64 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 266 | 382 | 375 | 757 | 109 | 302 | 13 | 16 | 343 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 521 | 446 | 118 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 70 | 100 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 265 | 368 | 336 | 704 | 72 | 332 | 19 | 13 | 327 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 49 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 184 | 326 | 211 | 537 | 26 | 212 | 14 | 14 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 495 | 400 | 92 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 77 | 73 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 230 | 361 | 330 | 691 | 100 | 260 | 15 | 16 | 315 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 120 | 104 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 269 | 356 | 394 | 750 | 125 | 287 | 12 | 12 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 223 | 195 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 52 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 190 | 285 | 282 | 567 | 92 | 243 | 23 | 12 | 263 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 256 | 228 | 43 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 39 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 189 | 269 | 246 | 514 | 57 | 220 | 15 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 237 | 211 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 57 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 232 | 314 | 303 | 617 | 71 | 302 | 24 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 364 | 342 | 71 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 83 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 208 | 247 | 298 | 545 | 91 | 259 | 23 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 347 | 310 | 70 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 103 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 226 | 306 | 377 | 684 | 152 | 301 | 30 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 179 | 166 | 48 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 41 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 289 | 333 | 367 | 701 | 78 | 362 | 23 | 6 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 368 | 336 | 83 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 84 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 247 | 311 | 354 | 665 | 107 | 316 | 23 | 8 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 578 | 492 | 137 | 36 | 0 | 10 | 71 | 132 | 5 | 28 | 9 | 278 | 375 | 413 | 788 | 134 | 343 | 23 | 12 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 521 | 468 | 115 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 48 | 119 | 3 | 16 | 6 | 246 | 320 | 303 | 623 | 58 | 322 | 23 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 495 | 428 | 91 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 88 | 5 | 17 | 7 | 213 | 303 | 294 | 597 | 82 | 241 | 18 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 223 | 203 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 62 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 153 | 222 | 217 | 438 | 64 | 211 | 28 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 256 | 228 | 43 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 39 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 189 | 269 | 246 | 514 | 57 | 224 | 15 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 256 | 218 | 62 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 33 | 32 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 284 | 383 | 376 | 760 | 92 | 328 | 12 | 13 | 343 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 237 | 211 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 57 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 232 | 314 | 303 | 617 | 71 | 314 | 24 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 237 | 198 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 33 | 40 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 288 | 403 | 374 | 776 | 86 | 357 | 17 | 14 | 357 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 370 | 76 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 90 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 205 | 246 | 292 | 538 | 86 | 260 | 23 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 394 | 361 | 90 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 65 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 249 | 305 | 363 | 668 | 114 | 291 | 16 | 7 | 297 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 347 | 310 | 70 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 103 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 226 | 306 | 377 | 684 | 152 | 307 | 30 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | Vancouver Canadians | — | 347 | 300 | 84 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 76 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 280 | 376 | 470 | 846 | 190 | 341 | 22 | 12 | 375 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 547 | 502 | 130 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 126 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 259 | 316 | 353 | 669 | 94 | 334 | 23 | 7 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 547 | 489 | 134 | 35 | 1 | 7 | 53 | 105 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 274 | 347 | 393 | 740 | 119 | 334 | 19 | 10 | 333 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 655 | 558 | 154 | 40 | 0 | 11 | 81 | 149 | 5 | 32 | 10 | 276 | 373 | 407 | 779 | 131 | 351 | 23 | 12 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 655 | 529 | 159 | 44 | 0 | 13 | 110 | 117 | 5 | 32 | 10 | 301 | 425 | 457 | 883 | 157 | 358 | 18 | 17 | 391 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 570 | 509 | 126 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 52 | 131 | 4 | 19 | 7 | 248 | 322 | 305 | 627 | 57 | 325 | 23 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 570 | 484 | 125 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 77 | 107 | 4 | 19 | 7 | 258 | 365 | 326 | 691 | 68 | 322 | 19 | 14 | 320 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 615 | 533 | 114 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 62 | 109 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 214 | 302 | 296 | 598 | 83 | 252 | 18 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 615 | 504 | 120 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 91 | 88 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 238 | 360 | 343 | 703 | 105 | 266 | 14 | 15 | 319 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 223 | 203 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 62 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 153 | 222 | 217 | 438 | 64 | 209 | 28 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 223 | 195 | 37 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 52 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 190 | 285 | 282 | 567 | 92 | 243 | 23 | 12 | 263 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 256 | 229 | 43 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 39 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 188 | 269 | 245 | 513 | 57 | 220 | 15 | 9 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 237 | 210 | 49 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 57 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 233 | 314 | 305 | 618 | 71 | 302 | 24 | 8 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 394 | 371 | 76 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 90 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 205 | 246 | 291 | 537 | 86 | 259 | 23 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 347 | 308 | 70 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 103 | 4 | 26 | 6 | 227 | 306 | 380 | 686 | 153 | 301 | 30 | 9 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 547 | 500 | 130 | 30 | 1 | 5 | 40 | 126 | 2 | 15 | 12 | 260 | 316 | 354 | 670 | 94 | 331 | 23 | 7 | 296 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 655 | 564 | 154 | 40 | 0 | 11 | 81 | 149 | 5 | 32 | 10 | 273 | 373 | 402 | 775 | 129 | 343 | 23 | 12 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 570 | 509 | 126 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 52 | 131 | 4 | 19 | 7 | 248 | 322 | 305 | 627 | 57 | 322 | 23 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 615 | 543 | 114 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 62 | 109 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 210 | 302 | 291 | 593 | 81 | 241 | 18 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 223 | 203 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 62 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 153 | 222 | 217 | 438 | 64 | 211 | 28 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 570 | 509 | 126 | 20 | 0 | 3 | 52 | 131 | 4 | 19 | 7 | 248 | 322 | 305 | 627 | 57 | 322 | 23 | 9 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 615 | 543 | 114 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 62 | 109 | 5 | 22 | 10 | 210 | 302 | 291 | 593 | 81 | 241 | 18 | 10 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 223 | 203 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 62 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 153 | 222 | 217 | 438 | 64 | 211 | 28 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | TOR | 10% | 273 | 244 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 60 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 224 | 301 | 304 | 605 | 81 | 283 | 22 | 9 | 277 | 74 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | 0.0 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | TOR | 10% | 14 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 224 | 301 | 305 | 607 | 81 | 284 | 21 | 7 | 278 | 74 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | TOR | 27% | 166 | 149 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 298 | 302 | 600 | 80 | 282 | 22 | 9 | 275 | 72 | -5 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | TOR | 27% | 45 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 299 | 303 | 601 | 80 | 283 | 22 | 9 | 276 | 72 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 41 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 289 | 268 | 557 | 49 | 290 | 22 | 9 | 276 | 76 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 130 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 144 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 220 | 289 | 269 | 558 | 49 | 290 | 22 | 9 | 276 | 76 | -21 | +3 | -8 | +2 | +14 | -1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4154 | 3702 | 854 | 169 | 16 | 44 | 373 | 935 | 32 | 153 | 75 | 231 | 307 | 321 | 627 | 90 | 294 | 23 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -10 | +0 | -2 | +1 | +7 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 579 | 134 | 26 | 3 | 7 | 58 | 146 | 5 | 24 | 12 | 231 | 306 | 323 | 629 | 92 | 295 | 22 | 9 | 280 | 76 | -21 | +1 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAABuffalo Bisons · 223 PAwOBA .256 → .203 (−54)K% 23.3% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 15.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 5.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 1.46% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .256 → .203; ISO .092 → .069; BABIP .243 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 495 PAwOBA .312 → .267 (−45)K% 14.7% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.75% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.56% | ÷1.075 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.80% | ÷0.986 | ×0.930 | ×1.004 | ×1.003 | 19.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.59% | ÷1.018 | ×0.830 | ×1.004 | ×1.003 | 3.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.004 | ×1.003 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.14% | ÷0.947 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.59% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 99, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .312 → .267; ISO .100 → .087; BABIP .260 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAABuffalo Bisons · 521 PAwOBA .319 → .282 (−38)K% 19.2% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.19% | ÷1.004 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.44% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.58% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.17% | ÷0.988 | ×0.930 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 26.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.78% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 5.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.028 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷0.990 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.83% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .319 → .282; ISO .072 → .061; BABIP .332 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 578 PAwOBA .394 → .345 (−49)K% 18.5% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.51% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.96% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 12.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.14% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 24.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.17% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 9.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.35% | ÷0.916 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 2.65% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 104, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .394 → .345; ISO .163 → .140; BABIP .366 → .343. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 368 PAwOBA .329 → .292 (−36)K% 19.0% → 22.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.02% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.05% | ÷0.911 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.32% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.012 | 21.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.47% | ÷1.067 | ×0.860 | ×1.039 | ×1.012 | 8.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.39% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.039 | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.94% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.49% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 102, BB 82 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .329 → .292; ISO .134 → .110; BABIP .327 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAABuffalo Bisons · 179 PAwOBA .320 → .305 (−15)K% 19.6% → 23.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.55% | ÷1.018 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.94% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.57% | ÷0.960 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 30.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.35% | ÷0.984 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷0.951 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.22% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 92, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .320 → .305; ISO .087 → .075; BABIP .349 → .362. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Vancouver Canadians · 347 PAwOBA .367 → .297 (−70)K% 21.9% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.90% | ÷0.991 | ×1.350 | — | — | 29.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.10% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.32% | ÷0.974 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 20.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.82% | ÷0.938 | ×0.830 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 8.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.45% | ÷1.049 | ×0.820 | ×0.969 | ×0.998 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.91% | ÷0.909 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 4.48% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 95, 2B 88, 3B 110, K 98, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .367 → .297; ISO .190 → .157; BABIP .341 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ALansing Lugnuts · 364 PAwOBA .296 → .238 (−58)K% 15.9% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.93% | ÷0.950 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.32% | ÷1.016 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.55% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.30% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 19.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.78% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 4.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.050 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 1.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 1.05% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 94, 2B 96, 3B 110, K 90, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .296 → .238; ISO .119 → .090; BABIP .292 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .