Adrian Morejon — OGILVIE

Adrian Morejon P San Diego Padres

Age 27 LHP 5'11" / 224 lbs MLB Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 1.4 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION81 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5361vR 69

ERA2.35

FIP2.34

K%28.7%

BB%5.4%

K-BB%23.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 87 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6065

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9099.3

Whiff%

p9034.2%

p9030.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.235

SL (16%)

SI (47%)

FB (61%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-3

MLB Debut 2019

Service 5.814 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext	$0.3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.7M
Totals		$0.3M		$1M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	6	6	28	120	23	13	2	100%	4.6	14.2%	12.8%	1.4%	2.1%	4.23	4.66	—
2017	18	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	6	6	28	120	23	13	2	100%	4.6	19.2%	10.8%	8.3%	1.7%	4.23	3.79	—
2018	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	65	276	74	24	6	100%	4.7	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.4%	3.44	4.56	—
2018	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	65	276	74	24	6	100%	4.7	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	2.2%	3.44	3.13	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	44	196	53	18	4	86%	2.1	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	1.7%	5.32	3.46	+0.8
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	44	196	53	18	4	86%	2.1	27.0%	9.2%	17.9%	2.0%	5.32	3.10	+1.0
2020	21	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	9	4	19	79	25	4	7	44%	2.1	31.6%	5.1%	26.6%	8.6%	4.66	5.81	-0.3
2020	21	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	9	4	19	79	25	4	7	44%	2.1	31.6%	5.1%	26.6%	8.9%	4.66	5.84	-0.3
2021	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	2	2	5	20	3	2	2	100%	2.3	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	10.0%	3.86	8.59	-0.2
2021	22	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	2	2	5	20	3	2	2	100%	2.3	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	10.0%	3.86	8.67	-0.2
2022	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	35	2	47	191	48	10	5	6%	1.4	19.9%	5.7%	14.2%	2.8%	3.80	3.66	+0.5
2022	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	35	2	47	191	48	10	5	6%	1.4	25.1%	5.2%	19.9%	2.6%	3.80	3.08	+0.8
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	6	38	181	45	19	5	19%	1.2	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.8%	6.34	4.22	+0.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	6	38	181	45	19	5	19%	1.2	19.1%	9.6%	9.5%	2.8%	6.34	4.22	+0.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	32	6	38	181	45	19	5	19%	1.2	24.9%	10.5%	14.4%	2.8%	6.34	3.93	+0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	70	296	77	20	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	1.4%	2.83	2.57	+1.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	70	296	77	20	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	1.4%	2.83	2.57	+1.7
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	70	296	77	20	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	6.8%	19.3%	2.0%	2.83	2.87	+1.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	75	0	74	286	70	14	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	0.7%	2.08	2.03	+2.2
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	75	0	74	286	70	14	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	0.7%	2.08	2.03	+2.2
2025	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	75	0	74	286	70	14	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	0.7%	2.08	2.12	+2.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			255	9	293	1212	314	72	25	4%	1.1	25.9%	5.9%	20.0%	2.1%	3.26	2.80	+6.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	70	0	81	328	100	17	4	0%	1.2	30.5%	5.2%	25.3%	1.2%	2.79	1.84	+2.7
YTD	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	70	0	81	328	100	17	4	0%	1.2	30.5%	5.2%	25.3%	1.2%	2.79	1.84	+2.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	27	MLB RAW	SD	70	0	81	328	100	17	4	0%	1.2	30.5%	5.2%	25.3%	1.2%	2.79	1.85	+2.6
SO FAR	27	MLB RAW	SD	70	0	81	328	100	17	4	0%	1.2	30.5%	5.2%	25.3%	1.2%	2.79	1.85	+2.6
ROS	27	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	27	8	1	0	0%	1.1	28.7%	5.4%	23.3%	1.8%	2.35	2.34	+0.2
ROS	27	MLB CTX	SD	6	0	6	25	7	1	0	0%	1.0	28.7%	5.4%	23.3%	1.8%	2.38	2.37	+0.2
2026 TOT	27	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	87	355	108	18	4	—	—	30.4%	5.2%	25.2%	1.3%	2.76	1.87	+3.4
FULL	27	MLB A+C	SD	—	—	87	367	108	18	4	—	—	29.3%	5.0%	24.3%	1.2%	2.76	1.93	+3.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	65	0	68	288	81	16	5	0%	1.0	28.0%	5.5%	22.5%	1.7%	2.73	2.76	+1.6
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	62	0	65	275	75	16	5	0%	1.0	27.4%	5.8%	21.7%	1.9%	2.85	2.92	+1.3
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	58	0	61	258	69	16	5	0%	1.1	26.7%	6.1%	20.7%	2.1%	3.02	3.13	+1.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	62	0	65	274	77	15	5	0%	1.0	28.0%	5.5%	22.5%	1.8%	2.75	2.78	+1.5
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	59	0	62	262	72	15	5	0%	1.1	27.4%	5.8%	21.7%	1.9%	2.88	2.95	+1.3
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	55	0	58	245	65	15	5	0%	1.1	26.7%	6.1%	20.7%	2.1%	3.05	3.16	+1.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		437	9	484	2019	535	118	41	2%	1.1	26.5%	5.9%	20.7%	2.0%	3.10	2.71	+10.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	4	200	834	221	49	17	2%	1.1	26.5%	5.9%	20.7%	2.0%	3.10	2.71	+4.4
Career	—	MLE		330	52	471	1973	467	151	45	16%	1.4	23.7%	7.7%	16.0%	2.3%	3.57	3.31	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	22	200	838	198	64	19	16%	1.4	23.7%	7.7%	16.0%	2.3%	3.57	3.31	+4.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Morejon (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.07	25.6%	5.6%	1.9%	—	2.93	27.4%	21.6%	194	-0.14	—	—	—
Felipe Vázquez L 2018 · 2.30 FIP	27	SU	2.30	30.1%	7.4%	1.5%	.326	1.83	38.1%	32.6%	60	-0.47	1.83	331	79
Justin Wilson L 2015 · 2.49 FIP	27	SU	2.49	27.0%	8.2%	1.1%	.297	3.28	29.1%	18.1%	171	+0.79	2.49	420	74
A.J. Puk L 2022 · 3.22 FIP	27	SU	3.22	27.0%	7.1%	2.7%	.258	2.97	30.9%	24.0%	128	-0.25	2.46	381	69
Taylor Rogers L 2018 · 1.93 FIP	27	SU	1.93	28.8%	5.0%	1.1%	.272	2.24	32.4%	28.9%	129	+0.31	1.87	786	69
Jake McGee L 2015 · 2.10 FIP	28	SU	2.10	32.7%	4.8%	2.1%	.270	3.80	21.8%	14.8%	154	+1.70	1.39	350	68
Brad Hand L 2017 · 2.60 FIP	27	SU	2.60	33.4%	6.1%	2.8%	.251	2.23	34.8%	28.0%	151	-0.37	0.84	577	68
Alex Vesia L 2023 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	30.2%	7.1%	3.3%	.338	3.20	32.5%	21.8%	177	-0.05	1.91	401	68
Zach Phillips L 2015 · 2.33 FIP	28	SU	2.33	24.7%	8.7%	0.4%	.319	2.94	23.8%	13.3%	111	+0.61	2.33	202	66
Jacob Latz L 2023 · 3.15 FIP	27	SU	3.15	27.1%	9.8%	2.0%	.366	3.36	24.6%	14.7%	209	+0.21	2.26	473	65
Jake Diekman L 2015 · 3.38 FIP	28	SU	3.38	26.5%	11.9%	1.8%	.310	3.25	27.0%	15.3%	106	-0.13	2.36	455	65
James Pazos L 2018 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	21.3%	6.6%	1.9%	.291	4.60	20.6%	9.4%	97	+1.39	2.55	261	64
Buddy Boshers L 2016 · 2.80 FIP	28	SU	2.80	24.3%	6.8%	1.6%	.288	3.81	22.5%	14.2%	161	+1.01	2.80	223	64
Sean Doolittle L 2015 · 3.05 FIP	28	SU	3.05	26.3%	8.8%	1.9%	.306	2.38	32.5%	28.6%	135	-0.67	1.39	259	64
Fabian Williamson L 2016 · 3.39 FIP	27	SU	3.39	23.8%	9.0%	2.1%	.259	5.26	16.5%	-3.3%	54	+1.87	3.39	154	64
Hayden Harris L 2023 · 3.11 FIP	24	SU	3.11	29.1%	11.2%	1.9%	.315	3.36	28.8%	16.7%	143	+0.25	1.82	194	64
Robbie Ross Jr. L 2016 · 2.81 FIP	27	SU	2.81	23.5%	9.7%	0.9%	.287	5.28	16.1%	-11.9%	11	+2.47	2.81	159	64
Keegan Akin L 2022 · 3.57 FIP	27	SU	3.57	23.4%	6.1%	3.1%	.266	3.49	26.6%	18.7%	166	-0.08	2.62	743	63
Josh Smoker L 2016 · 2.94 FIP	27	SU	2.94	30.3%	6.6%	2.9%	.399	4.28	22.8%	13.6%	116	+1.34	2.71	230	63
Marc Rzepczynski L 2015 · 2.73 FIP	29	SU	2.73	25.9%	6.3%	1.8%	.356	3.73	19.4%	7.9%	101	+1.00	2.73	181	63
Grant Wolfram L 2023 · 3.73 FIP	26	SU	3.73	24.9%	9.6%	2.8%	.265	3.04	23.3%	14.9%	163	-0.69	2.41	418	63

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	66	26.9%	5.7%	0.73	2.92
Roberto Osuna ('19)	1.6	62	28.5%	4.5%	0.81	2.75
Seunghwan Oh ('18)	1.0	69	27.7%	5.9%	1.00	2.78
Felipe Vázquez ('19)	1.7	66	29.8%	7.5%	0.60	2.61
Richard Rodríguez ('21)	1.1	56	25.0%	6.3%	1.21	3.00
Sean Doolittle ('21)	1.2	49	28.7%	6.2%	1.18	3.31
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36