Adrian Morejon
P
San Diego Padres
+1.6
WAR
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 224 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.5 · 2026
ERA2.88
FIP3.17
xFIP2.19
SIERA2.14
K%24.6%
BB%6.5%
K-BB%18.0%
IP70
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2026
K†6060
FB Velo
p9099.1
Whiff%
p9036.2%
K%
p5523.1%
xwOBA vs
p830.280
SL (23%)
SI (48%)
FB (60%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 6 | 6 | 28 | 120 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 14.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | 4.23 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 19 | A+ | Lake Elsinore Storm | 14 | 14 | 65 | 276 | 74 | 24 | 6 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.4% | 3.44 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 20 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 21 | 18 | 44 | 196 | 53 | 18 | 4 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | 5.32 | 3.38 | +0.8 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 9 | 4 | 19 | 79 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 31.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 4.66 | 4.91 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.86 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 35 | 2 | 47 | 191 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 19.9% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 3.80 | 3.49 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 32 | 6 | 38 | 181 | 45 | 19 | 5 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 6.34 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 66 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 20 | 6 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 1.3% | 2.83 | 2.51 | +2.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 75 | 0 | 74 | 286 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 24.5% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 2.08 | 1.99 | +2.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 8 | 0 | 9 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 67 | 17 | 5 | 26.0% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 2.76 | 3.15 | +1.3 |
| 2026 Total | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 70 | 301 | 75 | 18 | 5 | 24.9% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 3.42 | 2.73 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 72 | 18 | 5 | 24.5% | 6.1% | 1.8% | 2.98 | 3.15 | +1.5 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 69 | 18 | 5 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 3.13 | 3.22 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 66 | 277 | 65 | 17 | 5 | 23.5% | 6.3% | 1.9% | 3.24 | 3.32 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 12 | 12 | 63 | 267 | 61 | 17 | 5 | 22.9% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 3.35 | 3.42 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 57 | 17 | 5 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 3.46 | 3.54 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 53 | 17 | 5 | 21.6% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 3.58 | 3.66 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SD | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 49 | 16 | 5 | 20.9% | 6.9% | 2.2% | 3.71 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SD | 52 | — | 52 | 220 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 20.2% | 7.2% | 2.3% | 3.86 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SD | 49 | — | 49 | 205 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 19.4% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 4.02 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 37 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 35 | 15 | 5 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.18 | 4.29 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 38 | MLB | SD | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 31 | 14 | 5 | 17.8% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 268 | 52 | 400 | 1689 | 377 | 138 | 38 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.83 | 3.49 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 134 | 26 | 200 | 845 | 189 | 69 | 19 | 22.3% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.83 | 3.49 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Morejon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.15 | 26.0% | 6.5% | 1.9% | — | 3.23 | 24.1% | 17.9% | 202 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.43 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.43 | 27.0% | 8.2% | 1.1% | .297 | 3.25 | 29.1% | 18.1% | 171 | +0.82 | 2.43 | 420 | 74 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 2.97 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.97 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.97 | 245 | 74 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.09 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 1.7% | .291 | 4.56 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.47 | 2.55 | 261 | 73 |
| Jason Gurka L 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.14 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 1.1% | .303 | 3.27 | 23.4% | 17.6% | 95 | +0.13 | 2.91 | 183 | 72 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.42 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.26 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.84 | 3.42 | 154 | 71 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.69 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .267 | 3.20 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 124 | 71 |
| Zach Phillips L 2027 · 2.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.34 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 0.4% | .319 | 2.94 | 23.8% | 13.3% | 111 | +0.60 | 2.34 | 202 | 70 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2027 · 2.83 FIP | 28 | SW | 2.83 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 1.7% | .288 | 3.76 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 161 | +0.93 | 2.83 | 223 | 70 |
| David Huff L 2029 · 3.48 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.48 | 17.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | .271 | 4.07 | 19.5% | 14.6% | 52 | +0.59 | 3.48 | 158 | 69 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.59 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .263 | 7.05 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 21 | +3.46 | 3.59 | 364 | 69 |
| Colton Turner L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.31 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 1.7% | .235 | 4.33 | 22.4% | 13.2% | 94 | +1.02 | 2.79 | 325 | 69 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2026 · 2.79 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.79 | 23.5% | 9.7% | 0.8% | .287 | 5.28 | 16.1% | -11.9% | 11 | +2.49 | 2.79 | 159 | 69 |
| Jeff Malm L 2024 · 3.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.14 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 101 | 68 |
| Jose Alvarez L 2026 · 2.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 2.80 | 19.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% | .353 | 3.23 | 21.6% | 15.9% | 171 | +0.43 | 2.79 | 375 | 68 |
| A.J. Puk L 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.20 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .258 | 2.89 | 30.9% | 24.0% | 128 | -0.31 | 2.46 | 381 | 68 |
| Jack Dreyer L 2025 · 2.47 FIP | 26 | SW | 2.47 | 24.1% | 6.2% | 1.1% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 188 | 68 |
| Franklin Morales L 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.33 | 15.9% | 5.4% | 1.6% | .271 | 4.03 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 39 | +0.70 | 3.33 | 101 | 67 |
| Jordan Mills L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.64 | 210 | 67 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.25 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.15 | 2.32 | 455 | 67 |
| Jimmy Reyes L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.83 | 14.6% | 6.2% | 2.2% | .313 | 4.88 | 13.8% | 5.8% | 66 | +1.05 | 3.03 | 200 | 66 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Arb-3
MLB Debut 2019
Service 5.814 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2026
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Arb-3 | $4M | +1.5 | $12M | +$8M |
| Totals | $4M | $12M | +$8M | ||