Adrian Morejon
P
San Diego Padres
Age 27
LHP
5'11" / 224 lbs
MLB
Svc 5.0 · Ctrl thru 2026
peak 1.2 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5261vR 70
ERA2.48
FIP2.48
K%27.0%
BB%5.3%
K-BB%21.7%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p9099.2
Whiff%
p9034.2%
K%
p8428.4%
xwOBA vs
p900.247
SL (21%)
SI (45%)
FB (59%)
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 6 | 6 | 28 | 120 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 14.2% | 12.8% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 4.23 | 4.61 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | A | Fort Wayne TinCaps | 6 | 6 | 28 | 120 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.2% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 1.7% | 4.23 | 3.79 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 65 | 276 | 74 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 4.7 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 4.2% | 3.44 | 5.01 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 14 | 65 | 276 | 74 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 4.7 | 26.8% | 8.7% | 18.1% | 2.2% | 3.44 | 3.13 | — |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 44 | 196 | 53 | 18 | 4 | 86% | 2.1 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 1.4% | 5.32 | 3.27 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 18 | 44 | 196 | 53 | 18 | 4 | 86% | 2.1 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 17.9% | 2.0% | 5.32 | 3.10 | +0.7 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 9 | 4 | 19 | 79 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 44% | 2.1 | 31.6% | 5.1% | 26.6% | 9.5% | 4.66 | 6.30 | -0.4 |
| 2020 | 21 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 9 | 4 | 19 | 79 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 44% | 2.1 | 31.6% | 5.1% | 26.6% | 8.9% | 4.66 | 5.84 | -0.3 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 2.3 | 15.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 3.86 | 8.59 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 22 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 100% | 2.3 | 15.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 10.0% | 3.86 | 8.67 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 35 | 2 | 47 | 191 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 6% | 1.4 | 19.9% | 5.7% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 3.80 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 4 levels | 35 | 2 | 47 | 191 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 6% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 5.2% | 19.9% | 2.6% | 3.80 | 3.08 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 32 | 6 | 38 | 181 | 45 | 19 | 5 | 19% | 1.2 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 6.34 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 4 levels | 32 | 6 | 38 | 181 | 45 | 19 | 5 | 19% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 10.5% | 14.4% | 2.8% | 6.34 | 3.93 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 7.0% | 19.1% | 1.6% | 2.83 | 2.65 | +1.7 |
| 2024 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 66 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 77 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 6.8% | 19.3% | 2.0% | 2.83 | 2.87 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 75 | 0 | 74 | 286 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 4.9% | 19.6% | 0.8% | 2.08 | 2.07 | +2.4 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 75 | 0 | 74 | 286 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.5% | 4.9% | 19.6% | 0.7% | 2.08 | 2.12 | +2.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | San Diego Padres | 44 | 0 | 50 | 204 | 58 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.4% | 4.9% | 23.5% | 1.5% | 3.42 | 2.13 | +1.4 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 5.3% | 21.7% | 1.8% | 2.48 | 2.48 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 27 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.0% | 5.3% | 21.7% | 1.7% | 2.45 | 2.45 | +0.5 |
| 2026 TOT | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 70 | 290 | 81 | 15 | 5 | — | — | 28.0% | 5.0% | 23.0% | 1.6% | 3.15 | 2.23 | +2.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 27 | MLB | SD | — | — | 70 | 297 | 81 | 15 | 4 | — | — | 27.3% | 4.9% | 22.5% | 1.5% | 3.14 | 2.24 | +2.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 65 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 77 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 5.5% | 21.1% | 1.9% | 2.94 | 2.97 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 62 | 0 | 65 | 275 | 72 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.0% | 5.7% | 20.3% | 2.1% | 3.06 | 3.14 | +1.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 58 | 0 | 61 | 258 | 65 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 6.0% | 19.3% | 2.3% | 3.23 | 3.34 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 59 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 18.2% | 2.5% | 3.44 | 3.57 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 53 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.8% | 6.7% | 17.0% | 2.7% | 3.67 | 3.83 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 47 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 15.7% | 3.0% | 3.93 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SD | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 73 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.6% | 5.5% | 21.1% | 1.8% | 2.90 | 2.93 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 68 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 5.7% | 20.3% | 2.0% | 3.02 | 3.10 | +1.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SD | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 62 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 6.0% | 19.3% | 2.2% | 3.19 | 3.30 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SD | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 56 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 6.3% | 18.2% | 2.4% | 3.39 | 3.52 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SD | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 50 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 6.7% | 17.0% | 2.6% | 3.62 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SD | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 45 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 7.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 3.87 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 568 | 9 | 618 | 2589 | 649 | 157 | 58 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 6.1% | 19.0% | 2.2% | 3.32 | 2.98 | +17.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 3 | 200 | 838 | 210 | 51 | 19 | 2% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 6.1% | 19.0% | 2.2% | 3.32 | 2.98 | +5.7 | ||
| Career | — | 304 | 52 | 440 | 1849 | 427 | 147 | 47 | 17% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.54 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 138 | 24 | 200 | 840 | 194 | 67 | 21 | 17% | 1.4 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 15.1% | 2.5% | 3.70 | 3.54 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adrian Morejon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.09 | 25.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | — | 3.14 | 26.0% | 20.3% | 194 | +0.05 | — | — | — |
| Justin Wilson L 2026 · 2.48 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.48 | 27.0% | 8.2% | 1.1% | .297 | 3.25 | 29.1% | 18.1% | 171 | +0.77 | 2.48 | 420 | 73 |
| Felipe Vázquez L 2026 · 2.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.25 | 30.1% | 7.4% | 1.4% | .326 | 1.75 | 38.1% | 32.6% | 60 | -0.50 | 1.75 | 331 | 72 |
| A.J. Puk L 2026 · 3.15 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.15 | 27.0% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .258 | 2.93 | 30.9% | 24.0% | 128 | -0.22 | 2.50 | 381 | 69 |
| Jake McGee L 2027 · 2.13 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.13 | 32.7% | 4.8% | 2.2% | .270 | 3.58 | 21.8% | 14.8% | 154 | +1.45 | 1.52 | 350 | 68 |
| Taylor Rogers L 2026 · 1.92 FIP | 27 | SU | 1.92 | 28.8% | 5.0% | 1.1% | .272 | 2.24 | 32.4% | 28.9% | 129 | +0.32 | 1.87 | 767 | 67 |
| Nick Mondak L 2025 · 2.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 2.85 | 30.9% | 6.4% | 2.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 153 | 66 |
| Buddy Boshers L 2027 · 2.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.81 | 24.3% | 6.8% | 1.6% | .288 | 3.79 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 161 | +0.98 | 2.81 | 223 | 65 |
| Zach Phillips L 2027 · 2.29 FIP | 28 | SU | 2.29 | 24.7% | 8.7% | 0.3% | .319 | 2.97 | 23.8% | 13.3% | 111 | +0.68 | 2.29 | 202 | 65 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 2.94 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.94 | 20.7% | 5.7% | 1.6% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 245 | 65 |
| James Pazos L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.23 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 2.0% | .291 | 4.49 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 97 | +1.26 | 2.55 | 261 | 64 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 64 |
| Marc Rzepczynski L 2028 · 2.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 2.83 | 25.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% | .356 | 3.76 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 101 | +0.93 | 2.79 | 181 | 64 |
| Aaron Loup L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 24.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | .323 | 2.89 | 24.7% | 17.1% | 131 | -0.37 | 2.07 | 363 | 64 |
| Sean Doolittle L 2027 · 3.00 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.00 | 26.3% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .306 | 2.34 | 32.5% | 28.6% | 135 | -0.66 | 1.39 | 259 | 64 |
| Williams Jerez L 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .263 | 7.16 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 21 | +3.62 | 3.54 | 364 | 63 |
| Alex Vesia L 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 30.6% | 7.5% | 3.5% | .338 | 3.10 | 33.5% | 23.0% | 158 | -0.29 | 1.96 | 382 | 63 |
| Jeff Malm L 2024 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 101 | 63 |
| Brad Hand L 2026 · 2.76 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.76 | 33.4% | 6.1% | 3.1% | .251 | 2.24 | 34.8% | 28.0% | 151 | -0.52 | 0.84 | 577 | 63 |
| Jake Diekman L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.40 | 26.5% | 11.9% | 1.9% | .310 | 3.21 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 106 | -0.19 | 2.33 | 455 | 63 |
| Josh Smoker L 2026 · 2.87 FIP | 27 | SU | 2.87 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .399 | 4.32 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 116 | +1.45 | 2.66 | 230 | 63 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 60 | 25.1% | 6.1% | 0.89 | 3.30 |
| Joe Smith ('22) | 7 | 44 | 22.5% | 6.4% | 1.08 | 3.67 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |
| Tony Watson ('21) | 6 | 64 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 3.09 |
| Craig Stammen ('22) | 6 | 66 | 23.0% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 3.36 |
| Héctor Rondón ('20) | 6 | 53 | 25.3% | 7.1% | 1.19 | 3.48 |
| Kelvin Herrera ('19) | 5 | 59 | 23.8% | 7.3% | 1.03 | 3.58 |