Adrian Morejon

P San Diego Padres

Age 28 LHP 5'11" / 224 lbs MLB Svc 6.0 · Ctrl thru 2027 peak 1.6 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MANExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	25	MIX2 levels	66	70	2.83	2.87	26.0%	6.8%	1.4	K 26.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 2.57
2025	26	MLBSD	75	74	2.08	2.12	24.5%	4.9%	2.2
2026	27	MLBSD	76	86	2.83	1.95	30.4%	6.0%	2.7
2027PROJ	28	MLBSD	73	77	2.76	2.66	29.3%	5.6%	1.9
2028PROJ95% MLB	29	MLBSD	62	65	2.83	2.85	28.7%	5.9%	1.4
2029PROJ95% MLB	30	MLBSD	54	57	2.97	3.06	28.0%	6.2%	1.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 6.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service6.814First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$14M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%90

xwOBA vs90

Form3.86 ERA (proj 2.76) · K 33.3% (proj 29.3%) · BB 13.3% (proj 5.6%) ▼ last 60d · 14 IP through Oct 27

CompsJustin Wilson (age 28) · Felipe Vázquez (age 28) · Zack Britton (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 5765vR 74

ERA2.76

FIP2.66

K%29.3%

BB%5.6%

K-BB%23.6%

Proj IP77

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 77 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5555

CMD6060

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9099.3

Whiff%

p9034.2%

p9030.4%

xwOBA vs

p900.237

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2019

Service 6.814 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+1.9	$15M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$15M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2017	18	A MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	6	6	28	120	23	13	2	100%	4.6	14.2%	12.8%	1.4%	2.1%	4.23	4.66	—
2017	18	A RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	6	6	28	120	23	13	2	100%	4.6	19.2%	10.8%	8.3%	1.7%	4.23	3.79	—
2018	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	65	276	74	24	6	100%	4.7	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.4%	3.44	4.56	—
2018	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	65	276	74	24	6	100%	4.7	26.8%	8.7%	18.1%	2.2%	3.44	3.13	—
2019	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	18	44	196	53	18	4	86%	2.1	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	1.7%	5.32	3.46	+1.0
2019	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	18	44	196	53	18	4	86%	2.1	27.0%	9.2%	17.9%	2.0%	5.32	3.10	+1.2
2020	21	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	9	4	19	79	25	4	7	44%	2.1	31.6%	5.1%	26.6%	8.6%	4.66	5.81	-0.3
2020	21	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	9	4	19	79	25	4	7	44%	2.1	31.6%	5.1%	26.6%	8.9%	4.66	5.84	-0.3
2021	22	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	2	2	5	20	3	2	2	100%	2.3	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	10.0%	3.86	8.59	-0.2
2021	22	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	2	2	5	20	3	2	2	100%	2.3	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	10.0%	3.86	8.67	-0.2
2022	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	35	2	47	191	48	10	5	6%	1.4	19.9%	5.7%	14.2%	2.8%	3.80	3.66	+0.5
2022	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	35	2	47	191	48	10	5	6%	1.4	25.1%	5.2%	19.9%	2.6%	3.80	3.08	+0.8
2023	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	32	6	38	181	45	19	5	19%	1.2	19.8%	9.6%	10.2%	2.8%	6.34	4.16	+0.2
2023	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	32	6	38	181	45	19	5	19%	1.2	24.9%	10.5%	14.4%	2.8%	6.34	3.93	+0.3
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	70	296	77	20	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	1.4%	2.83	2.57	+1.7
2024	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	70	296	77	20	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	7.0%	19.1%	1.4%	2.83	2.57	+1.7
2024	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	70	296	77	20	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	6.8%	19.3%	2.0%	2.83	2.87	+1.4
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	75	0	74	286	70	14	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	0.7%	2.08	2.03	+2.2
2025	26	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	75	0	74	286	70	14	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	0.7%	2.08	2.03	+2.2
2025	26	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	75	0	74	286	70	14	2	0%	1.0	24.5%	4.9%	19.6%	0.7%	2.08	2.12	+2.2
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	76	0	86	352	107	21	4	0%	1.1	30.4%	6.0%	24.4%	1.1%	2.83	1.90	+2.8
2026	27	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	76	0	86	352	107	21	4	0%	1.1	30.4%	6.0%	24.4%	1.1%	2.83	1.90	+2.8
2026	27	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	76	0	86	352	107	21	4	0%	1.1	30.4%	6.0%	24.4%	1.1%	2.83	1.95	+2.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			261	9	298	1236	321	76	25	3%	1.1	26.0%	6.1%	19.8%	2.0%	3.26	2.80	+6.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	SD	73	0	77	325	95	18	6	0%	1.1	29.3%	5.6%	23.6%	1.7%	2.76	2.66	+1.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	65	0	68	289	83	17	5	0%	1.1	28.7%	5.9%	22.8%	1.9%	2.80	2.82	+1.5
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	57	0	60	255	71	16	5	0%	1.1	28.0%	6.2%	21.8%	2.1%	2.94	3.03	+1.2
2030	31	MLB MLE	SD	50	0	52	221	60	14	5	0%	1.0	27.2%	6.5%	20.7%	2.3%	3.13	3.26	+0.8
2031	32	MLB MLE	SD	41	0	43	183	48	13	5	0%	1.1	26.4%	6.9%	19.5%	2.5%	3.36	3.51	+0.6
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	62	0	65	274	79	16	5	0%	1.0	28.7%	5.9%	22.8%	1.9%	2.83	2.85	+1.4
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	54	0	57	241	67	15	5	0%	1.1	28.0%	6.2%	21.8%	2.1%	2.97	3.06	+1.1
2030	31	MLB CTX	SD	48	0	50	211	58	14	5	0%	1.0	27.2%	6.5%	20.7%	2.3%	3.16	3.29	+0.8
2031	32	MLB CTX	SD	39	0	41	173	46	12	4	0%	1.1	26.4%	6.9%	19.5%	2.6%	3.39	3.54	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		464	9	512	2136	571	133	45	2%	1.1	26.7%	6.2%	20.5%	2.1%	3.17	2.78	+10.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		181	4	200	835	223	52	18	2%	1.1	26.7%	6.2%	20.5%	2.1%	3.17	2.78	+4.2
Career	—	MLE		336	52	476	1997	475	155	45	15%	1.4	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	2.2%	3.57	3.30	+10.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	22	200	838	199	65	19	15%	1.4	23.8%	7.8%	16.0%	2.2%	3.57	3.30	+3.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 6 IPFIP 6.09 → 6.43 (+0.34)K% 25.0% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.00%	—	×0.860	21.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.17%	—	×0.900	3.75%
HR / BF /BF	8.33%	÷1.078	×1.100	8.51%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 116).

Result: FIP 6.09 → 6.43, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAEl Paso Chihuahuas · 24 IPFIP 3.96 → 4.16 (+0.20)K% 23.0% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.01%	—	×0.860	19.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.62%	—	×0.900	9.56%
HR / BF /BF	2.65%	÷1.052	×1.100	2.77%

Result: FIP 3.96 → 4.16, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 5 IPFIP 3.30 → 4.88 (+1.58)K% 42.9% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	42.86%	—	×0.740	31.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.52%	—	×1.180	11.24%
HR / BF /BF	4.76%	÷1.121	×1.300	5.52%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 124).

Result: FIP 3.30 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASan Antonio Missions · 7 IPFIP 1.18 → 1.88 (+0.70)K% 36.4% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.36%	—	×0.810	29.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.870	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 74).

Result: FIP 1.18 → 1.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 36 IPFIP 2.99 → 3.46 (+0.47)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.74%	—	×1.100	10.71%
HR / BF /BF	1.95%	÷1.337	×1.200	1.75%

Result: FIP 2.99 → 3.46, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Lake Elsinore Storm · 63 IPFIP 3.26 → 4.56 (+1.30)K% 26.6% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.62%	—	×0.770	20.49%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.13%	—	×1.150	10.49%
HR / BF /BF	2.28%	÷0.839	×1.250	3.40%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 68).

Result: FIP 3.26 → 4.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AFort Wayne TinCaps · 28 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.66 (+0.89)K% 19.2% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.17%	—	×0.740	14.18%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.83%	—	×1.180	12.78%
HR / BF /BF	1.67%	÷1.048	×1.300	2.07%

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adrian Morejon (OGILVIE)	—	—	2.66	29.3%	5.6%	1.7%	—	3.02	28.0%	21.9%	181	+0.36	—	—	—
Justin Wilson L 2016 · 3.04 FIP	28	SU	3.04	25.9%	6.0%	2.5%	.333	3.45	29.7%	16.8%	152	+0.41	2.49	554	73
Felipe Vázquez L 2019 · 1.83 FIP	28	SU	1.83	38.1%	5.5%	2.3%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	1.83	331	69
Zack Britton L 2016 · 1.58 FIP	28	SU	1.58	29.1%	5.9%	0.4%	.226	3.54	20.2%	8.1%	139	+1.96	1.58	640	69
Sean Marshall L 2011 · 1.65 FIP	28	SU	1.65	25.7%	4.2%	0.3%	.304	2.36	26.8%	19.5%	75	+0.71	1.65	605	66
Taylor Rogers L 2019 · 2.35 FIP	28	SU	2.35	32.4%	3.2%	2.9%	.292	2.38	31.6%	26.5%	125	+0.03	1.87	794	66
Damaso Marte L 2003 · 2.41 FIP	28	SU	2.41	27.7%	8.9%	1.0%	.240	3.88	23.9%	13.1%	177	+1.47	2.41	495	63
Jake McGee L 2015 · 2.10 FIP	28	SU	2.10	32.7%	4.8%	2.1%	.270	3.80	21.8%	14.8%	154	+1.70	1.39	567	62
Glen Perkins L 2011 · 2.16 FIP	28	SU	2.16	25.7%	6.3%	0.8%	.312	2.70	28.4%	23.7%	195	+0.54	2.16	611	61
Nick Hagadone L 2014 · 2.97 FIP	28	SU	2.97	29.7%	4.4%	3.3%	.263	3.70	22.6%	13.5%	61	+0.73	2.97	141	61
Charlie Furbush L 2014 · 2.58 FIP	28	SU	2.58	28.8%	5.1%	2.3%	.319	3.19	20.7%	17.0%	22	+0.61	2.40	261	61
Gabe White L 2000 · 2.45 FIP	28	SU	2.45	25.5%	4.0%	1.8%	.257	4.44	16.8%	12.1%	169	+1.99	2.45	562	61
Aaron Loup L 2016 · 2.26 FIP	28	SU	2.26	26.5%	5.0%	1.4%	.366	3.09	24.1%	15.6%	97	+0.83	1.80	531	60
B.J. Ryan L 2004 · 1.77 FIP	28	SU	1.77	33.8%	7.2%	1.1%	.287	1.95	33.2%	25.5%	143	+0.18	1.77	532	60
Hideki Okajima L 2007 · 3.05 FIP	31	SU	3.05	23.2%	5.5%	2.2%	.234	3.87	20.2%	12.6%	169	+0.82	3.05	238	60
Darin Downs L 2013 · 3.30 FIP	28	SU	3.30	24.5%	6.0%	2.8%	.317	3.87	16.5%	7.3%	51	+0.57	2.83	107	60
Brian Moran L 2017 · 1.80 FIP	28	SU	1.80	30.8%	4.6%	1.3%	.275	3.22	25.0%	15.8%	121	+1.42	1.80	421	59
Nick Mondak L 2024 · 2.70 FIP	26	SU	2.70	30.9%	6.4%	2.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	153	59
A.J. Puk L 2023 · 3.34 FIP	28	SU	3.34	32.2%	4.5%	4.3%	.308	2.68	29.9%	21.1%	71	-0.66	2.46	381	58
Jose Mijares L 2013 · 2.78 FIP	28	SU	2.78	22.9%	6.8%	1.4%	.393	—	—	—	—	—	2.78	249	58
Brian Fuentes L 2004 · 3.27 FIP	28	SU	3.27	23.9%	6.5%	2.5%	.304	3.33	25.8%	17.0%	201	+0.06	2.08	602	58

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	67	27.1%	6.7%	0.78	3.11
Luke Gregerson ('19)	3.1	69	24.7%	7.0%	0.79	3.15
Rafael Soriano ('15)	3.2	64	24.9%	7.7%	0.88	2.89
John Wetteland ('00)	3.3	66	25.9%	8.0%	0.88	2.80
Jeff Montgomery ('87-'99, 19 WAR*)	4.3	72	26.2%*	7.6%*	1.01*	3.16*
Joe Sambito ('76-'87, 8 WAR*)	3.1	70	26.8%*	7.5%*	1.06*	3.65*
Mike Henneman ('87-'96, 13 WAR*)	3.7	73	22.6%*	8.3%*	0.70*	3.25*