Johan Oviedo

P Boston Red Sox

Age 29 RHP 6'6" / 275 lbs MLB Svc 4.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 1.4 · 2028 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

MLBRPD6040-MANArb-2FA 2029

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MLBPIT	32	32	178	4.31	4.10	20.2%	10.5%	1.7
2025	27	MIX5 levels	17	17	66	3.39	3.87	28.5%	10.9%	0.8	K 26.9% · BB 11.7% · FIP 4.83
2026	28	MIX2 levels	2	1	6	7.50	6.10	25.9%	7.4%	-0.1	K 25.9% · BB 7.4% · FIP 5.91
2027PROJ	29	MLBBOS	16	16	98	4.44	4.57	26.3%	11.8%	0.4
2028PROJ	30	MLBBOS	26	26	153	4.59	4.73	25.6%	12.1%	0.2
2029PROJ	31	MLBBOS	24	24	143	4.81	4.96	24.9%	12.4%	-0.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2028Service4.453First FA2029

2027Arb-2$5M2028Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%79

FB Velo64

K%64

xwOBA vs46

CompsAriel Peña (age 28) · Reinier Roibal (age 30) · Andrew Triggs (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.44

FIP4.57

K%26.3%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%14.5%

Proj IP98

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 98 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF5560

CTRL3540

CMD3540

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6495.5

Whiff%

p7929.9%

p6424.7%

xwOBA vs

p460.316

CT (1%)

SI (21%)

CU (24%)

SL-1.1 (19%)

FB-2.6 (54%)

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-2

MLB Debut 2020

Service 4.453 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2029

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-2	$5M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	7	7	22	88	29	6	0	100%	3.1	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	0.0%	1.66	2.29	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	7	7	22	88	29	6	0	100%	3.1	33.0%	6.8%	26.1%	0.0%	1.66	1.25	—
2017	19	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	6	6	28	125	31	18	0	100%	4.6	16.9%	18.0%	-1.1%	0.0%	4.88	3.96	—
2017	19	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	6	6	28	125	31	18	0	100%	4.6	24.8%	14.4%	10.4%	0.0%	4.88	2.81	—
2018	20	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	25	23	122	542	118	79	6	92%	4.9	16.1%	17.2%	-1.1%	1.5%	4.22	4.72	—
2018	20	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	25	23	122	542	118	79	6	92%	4.9	21.8%	14.6%	7.2%	1.1%	4.22	3.75	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	147	655	163	76	10	97%	5.1	19.9%	12.9%	7.1%	1.7%	4.73	3.98	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	147	655	163	76	10	97%	5.1	24.9%	11.6%	13.3%	1.5%	4.73	3.32	—
2020	22	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	5	5	25	112	16	10	3	100%	4.9	14.3%	8.9%	5.4%	2.9%	5.47	4.61	+0.1
2020	22	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	5	5	25	112	16	10	3	100%	4.9	14.3%	8.9%	5.4%	2.7%	5.47	4.60	+0.1
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	24	117	533	110	64	15	92%	4.5	19.3%	12.3%	7.0%	3.1%	5.48	4.75	+0.2
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	24	117	533	110	64	15	92%	4.5	20.6%	12.0%	8.6%	2.8%	5.48	4.53	+0.5
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	22	117	501	118	49	19	61%	3.3	22.0%	10.0%	12.0%	4.1%	3.99	4.77	+0.2
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	22	117	501	118	49	19	61%	3.3	23.6%	9.8%	13.8%	3.8%	3.99	4.45	+0.6
2023	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	178	781	158	82	19	100%	5.6	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	2.6%	4.31	4.17	+1.5
2023	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	32	32	178	781	158	82	19	100%	5.6	20.2%	10.5%	9.7%	2.4%	4.31	4.10	+1.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	5 levels	17	17	66	274	78	30	9	100%	3.9	26.9%	11.7%	15.2%	4.6%	3.39	4.83	+0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	5 levels	17	17	66	274	78	30	9	100%	3.9	26.9%	11.7%	15.2%	4.6%	3.39	4.83	+0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	5 levels	17	17	66	274	78	30	9	100%	3.9	28.5%	10.9%	17.5%	3.3%	3.39	3.87	+0.8
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	6	27	7	2	2	50%	3.0	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	7.4%	7.50	5.91	-0.1
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	1	6	27	7	2	2	50%	3.0	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	7.4%	7.50	5.91	-0.1
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	1	6	27	7	2	2	50%	3.0	25.9%	7.4%	18.5%	7.4%	7.50	6.10	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			82	67	365	1611	324	174	43	82%	4.4	20.1%	10.8%	9.3%	2.7%	4.29	4.29	+2.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	BOS	16	16	98	414	109	49	14	100%	6.1	26.3%	11.8%	14.5%	3.3%	4.44	4.57	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	26	26	153	646	165	78	23	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.1%	13.5%	3.5%	4.64	4.78	+0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	BOS	24	24	143	603	150	75	23	100%	5.9	24.9%	12.4%	12.4%	3.7%	4.86	5.01	-0.2
2030	32	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	132	557	134	71	22	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.8%	11.2%	4.0%	5.10	5.26	-0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	26	26	153	646	165	78	22	100%	5.9	25.6%	12.1%	13.5%	3.4%	4.59	4.73	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	BOS	24	24	143	604	150	75	22	100%	6.0	24.9%	12.4%	12.4%	3.7%	4.81	4.96	-0.2
2030	32	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	132	557	134	71	22	100%	6.0	24.1%	12.8%	11.2%	3.9%	5.05	5.21	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		153	138	792	3417	773	398	109	90%	5.2	22.6%	11.7%	11.0%	3.2%	4.57	4.41	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	35	200	862	195	100	28	90%	5.2	22.6%	11.7%	11.0%	3.2%	4.57	4.41	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		185	165	826	3638	727	449	95	89%	4.5	20.0%	12.3%	7.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.41	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	40	200	881	176	109	23	89%	4.5	20.0%	12.3%	7.6%	2.6%	4.42	4.41	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Oviedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	26.3%	11.8%	3.3%	—	5.00	24.9%	12.5%	428	+0.43	—	—	—
Ariel Peña R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	28	SP	3.99	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.08	3.74	223	67
Reinier Roibal R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	30	SP	4.91	17.5%	11.8%	3.3%	.426	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	133	62
Andrew Triggs R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	29	SP	4.68	23.6%	9.9%	4.2%	.263	—	—	—	—	—	1.66	242	61
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	60
Stan Spencer R 2000 · 4.42 FIP	30	SP	4.42	19.2%	8.7%	3.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	119	60
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	60
Dustin McGowan R 2011 · 5.34 FIP	29	SP-	5.34	20.8%	13.5%	4.2%	.271	4.46	18.5%	9.4%	108	-0.88	3.36	690	59
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	647	57
Cody Anderson R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	28	SP	4.33	18.9%	7.5%	3.4%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	279	57
Alex Meyer R 2017 · 3.99 FIP	27	SP	3.99	25.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	230	56
Bryan Evans R 2016 · 4.63 FIP	29	SP	4.63	21.0%	5.7%	4.7%	.280	4.47	19.3%	13.7%	139	-0.16	3.89	231	55
Jonathan Pintaro R 2024 · 3.42 FIP	26	SP	3.42	18.9%	9.4%	1.3%	.264	4.07	23.9%	12.1%	153	+0.65	3.42	223	54
Yariel Rodríguez R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	27	SP	3.76	24.9%	11.4%	2.4%	.275	3.72	24.1%	12.7%	89	-0.04	2.32	196	54
Hiram Burgos R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	29	SP	4.94	19.3%	7.5%	4.6%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	384	54
Yohan Pino R 2014 · 3.84 FIP	30	SP	3.84	19.4%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.45	17.1%	11.9%	133	+0.61	3.84	193	53
Dennis O'Grady R 2019 · 3.62 FIP	30	SP	3.62	17.2%	8.1%	1.7%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	53
Travis Smith R 2002 · 5.28 FIP	29	SP	5.28	13.1%	8.2%	4.1%	.324	5.71	15.0%	9.0%	51	+0.43	3.67	105	53
J.P. France R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	29	SP	5.15	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.317	4.82	18.0%	3.9%	71	-0.33	4.04	577	53
Blair Henley R 2024 · 5.41 FIP	27	SP	5.41	17.2%	12.4%	4.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	187	51
Rolando Valdez R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	29	SP	4.07	13.3%	5.9%	2.4%	.301	3.78	13.2%	7.9%	176	-0.29	3.06	258	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	100	23.1%	11.8%	1.26	4.58
Joe Decker ('69-'79, 6 WAR*)	3.5	101	21.4%*	11.8%*	1.04*	4.49*
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Chuck Estrada ('60-'67, 4 WAR*)	3.8	127	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.08*	4.62*
John Maine ('13)	3.0	99	19.5%	10.5%	1.23	4.45
Kyle Wright ('23)	1.4	94	21.9%	9.7%	1.25	4.45
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45