Garrett Acton

P St. Paul Saints

Age 29 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	MIX2 levels	27	0	35	6.75	5.87	24.2%	8.9%	-0.5	K 22.7% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.58
2025	27	MIX2 levels	46	4	60	3.62	3.70	29.5%	12.0%	0.6	K 25.9% · BB 10.3% · FIP 3.52
2026	28	MIX4 levels	29	0	39	3.96	3.31	29.9%	11.0%	0.6	K 27.9% · BB 9.4% · FIP 3.11
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIN	38	0	40	3.90	3.79	28.2%	9.5%	0.4
2028PROJ78% MLB	30	MLBMIN	36	0	38	4.01	4.05	27.1%	9.8%	0.2
2029PROJ83% MLB	31	MLBMIN	33	0	35	4.19	4.30	26.0%	10.1%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%79

FB Velo50

xwOBA vs45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.5, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsCody Hall (age 29) · Jason Bulger (age 29) · Scott Atchison (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10597vR 89

ERA3.90

FIP3.79

K%28.2%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%18.7%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4545

CMD5555

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5094.5

Whiff%

p9036.6%

p7927.5%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	54	215	87	18	9	0%	1.6	30.4%	9.8%	20.6%	4.9%	3.69	4.48	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	54	215	87	18	9	0%	1.6	40.5%	8.4%	32.1%	4.2%	3.69	3.04	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	2	70	307	92	25	15	4%	1.4	25.4%	8.7%	16.7%	5.5%	5.01	5.06	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	2	70	307	92	25	15	4%	1.4	30.0%	8.1%	21.8%	4.9%	5.01	4.33	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	35	157	38	14	10	0%	1.3	22.7%	7.9%	14.8%	6.2%	6.75	5.58	-0.4
2023	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	35	157	38	14	10	0%	1.3	24.2%	8.9%	15.3%	6.4%	6.75	5.87	-0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	4	60	241	71	29	7	9%	1.3	25.9%	10.3%	15.6%	2.4%	3.62	3.52	+0.7
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	4	60	241	71	29	7	9%	1.3	25.9%	10.3%	15.6%	2.4%	3.62	3.52	+0.7
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	4	60	241	71	29	7	9%	1.3	29.5%	12.0%	17.4%	2.9%	3.62	3.70	+0.6
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	29	0	39	164	49	18	4	0%	1.3	27.9%	9.4%	18.5%	2.1%	3.96	3.11	+0.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	29	0	39	164	49	18	4	0%	1.3	27.9%	9.4%	18.5%	2.1%	3.96	3.11	+0.7
2026	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	29	0	39	164	49	18	4	0%	1.3	29.9%	11.0%	18.9%	2.4%	3.96	3.31	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			14	0	18	88	19	10	4	0%	1.3	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	4.5%	7.64	5.59	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIN	38	0	40	169	48	16	5	0%	1.1	28.2%	9.5%	18.7%	2.7%	3.90	3.79	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIN	47	0	49	206	56	20	6	0%	1.0	27.1%	9.8%	17.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.05	+0.3
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIN	40	0	42	179	46	18	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	10.1%	15.9%	3.2%	4.19	4.30	+0.1
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIN	36	0	38	160	43	16	5	0%	1.1	27.1%	9.8%	17.2%	2.9%	4.01	4.05	+0.2
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIN	33	0	35	148	38	15	5	0%	1.1	26.0%	10.1%	15.9%	3.2%	4.19	4.30	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	0	91	398	101	41	13	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.3%	15.2%	3.4%	4.78	4.11	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	0	200	874	222	90	29	0%	1.1	25.5%	10.3%	15.2%	3.4%	4.78	4.11	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		187	6	257	1084	287	101	46	3%	1.4	26.5%	9.3%	17.2%	4.3%	4.49	4.38	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	5	200	845	224	78	36	3%	1.4	26.5%	9.3%	17.2%	4.3%	4.49	4.38	+0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 24 IPFIP 2.76 → 3.12 (+0.37)K% 32.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.65%	—	×0.860	28.08%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.20%	—	×0.900	9.18%
HR / BF /BF	2.04%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.24%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.76 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 59 IPFIP 3.64 → 3.52 (−0.12)K% 30.1% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.08%	—	×0.860	25.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.44%	—	×0.900	10.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.97%	÷1.380	×1.100	2.36%

Result: FIP 3.64 → 3.52, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 29 IPFIP 5.06 → 5.58 (+0.52)K% 26.4% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.40%	—	×0.860	22.70%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.80%	—	×0.900	7.92%
HR / BF /BF	5.60%	÷0.996	×1.100	6.19%

Result: FIP 5.06 → 5.58, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 42 IPFIP 5.42 → 5.83 (+0.41)K% 27.2% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.17%	—	×0.880	23.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.15%	—	×1.050	8.56%
HR / BF /BF	6.52%	÷1.075	×1.100	6.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 115).

Result: FIP 5.42 → 5.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAMidland RockHounds · 28 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.92 (+1.34)K% 34.1% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.15%	—	×0.810	27.66%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.13%	—	×1.100	8.94%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.793	×1.200	3.69%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 59).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AStockton Ports · 36 IPFIP 3.50 → 4.76 (+1.26)K% 35.8% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.81%	—	×0.740	26.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.46%	—	×1.180	11.16%
HR / BF /BF	4.05%	÷1.165	×1.300	4.52%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 133).

Result: FIP 3.50 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 17 IPFIP 2.03 → 3.87 (+1.84)K% 50.7% → 39.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	50.75%	—	×0.770	39.07%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.97%	—	×1.150	6.87%
HR / BF /BF	4.48%	÷0.959	×1.250	5.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 2.03 → 3.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Acton (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.79	28.2%	9.5%	2.7%	—	4.17	26.6%	16.6%	91	+0.38	—	—	—
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	83
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	82
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	80
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	79
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2014 · 2.87 FIP	30	SU	2.87	26.1%	7.0%	2.0%	.283	3.64	23.0%	15.0%	186	+0.77	2.80	319	78
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	77
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	77
Michael Flynn R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	27	SU	3.99	27.6%	8.3%	3.9%	.277	4.68	16.2%	3.7%	50	+0.69	3.89	168	76
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	76
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	75
Jason Stoffel R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	27	SU	3.49	27.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.49	103	75
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	74
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Sam Wolff R 2019 · 2.66 FIP	28	SU	2.66	24.8%	8.8%	1.0%	.289	3.23	26.0%	17.4%	22	+0.57	2.66	178	74
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	73
Andrew Robinson R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	29	SU	4.32	23.4%	8.8%	3.8%	.245	—	—	—	—	—	3.19	160	73
Brooks Kriske R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	31.2%	10.0%	4.3%	.379	3.68	29.1%	16.9%	127	-0.42	3.09	246	73
JT Chargois R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	28	SU	3.63	27.2%	8.9%	3.1%	.311	3.57	23.1%	15.8%	76	-0.06	2.58	362	73
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	26.5%	10.4%	1.21	4.41
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*