Garrett Acton — OGILVIE

Garrett Acton P Minnesota Twins

+0.2 WAR

INJURED · Injured 15-Day (D15)

Age 28 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs MLB Svc 3.0 · Ctrl thru 2028 peak 0.4 · 2027

ERA4.30

FIP4.30

xFIP4.25

SIERA3.39

K%24.9%

BB%10.7%

K-BB%14.3%

IP54

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2027

K†6060

FB+1.3 (55%)

SL (45%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	23	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	34	0	54	215	87	18	9	30.4%	9.8%	4.9%	3.69	4.44	+0.3
2022	24	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	51	2	70	307	92	25	15	25.4%	8.7%	5.5%	5.01	5.09	-0.0
2023	25	MLB	Oakland Athletics	27	0	35	157	38	14	10	23.2%	9.2%	6.2%	6.75	5.70	-0.3
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	46	4	60	241	71	29	7	26.5%	12.0%	2.3%	3.62	3.66	+0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	4	0	6	24	9	3	0	—	—	—	1.42	—	—
ROS	28	MLB	MIN	23	—	23	97	24	10	3	24.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.30	4.30	+0.2
2026 Total	28	MLB	MIN	—	—	29	121	33	13	3	27.4%	11.0%	2.3%	3.68	3.37	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	MIN	53	—	53	223	55	24	7	24.6%	10.6%	2.9%	4.33	4.35	+0.4
2028	30	MLB	MIN	51	—	51	216	53	23	6	24.4%	10.6%	3.0%	4.38	4.41	+0.3
2029	31	MLB	MIN	49	—	49	208	50	22	6	24.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.44	4.48	+0.3
2030	32	MLB	MIN	47	—	47	200	47	21	6	23.8%	10.8%	3.1%	4.51	4.56	+0.2
2031	33	MLB	MIN	45	—	45	191	45	21	6	23.5%	10.9%	3.2%	4.60	4.66	+0.1
2032	34	MLB	MIN	43	—	43	181	42	20	6	23.1%	11.1%	3.3%	4.70	4.77	+0.1
2033	35	MLB	MIN	40	—	40	171	39	19	6	22.7%	11.3%	3.4%	4.81	4.89	+0.0
2034	36	MLB	MIN	38	—	38	160	36	18	6	22.3%	11.6%	3.6%	4.94	5.02	-0.0
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			162	6	224	944	253	94	43	26.8%	10.0%	4.5%	4.49	4.59	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—			144	5	200	842	226	84	38	26.8%	10.0%	4.5%	4.49	4.59	+1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Acton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.30	24.9%	10.7%	2.9%	—	4.41	24.4%	13.8%	153	+0.11	—	—	—
José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.92	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.58	2.26	279	84
Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.34	2.42	125	81
Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP	28	SU	3.39	23.5%	10.7%	1.7%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	166	78
Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.57	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.10	2.59	137	77
Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.33 FIP	29	SU	4.33	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.99	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.34	3.47	149	77
Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	26	SU	4.26	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	104	77
David Hernandez R 2028 · 4.62 FIP	30	SU	4.62	22.9%	7.6%	4.5%	.287	3.18	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.44	2.56	268	76
Greg Holland R 2027 · 3.19 FIP	29	SU	3.19	25.4%	13.0%	1.1%	.316	3.45	26.4%	14.2%	104	+0.26	1.94	268	76
Brooks Kriske R 2025 · 4.81 FIP	27	SU	4.81	28.6%	12.1%	4.7%	.261	4.45	30.7%	16.5%	88	-0.36	3.04	230	75
Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	28	SU	4.75	27.1%	12.5%	4.3%	.389	4.77	29.1%	19.7%	116	+0.02	3.10	220	74
Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	28	SW	3.52	22.6%	9.0%	2.2%	.327	4.82	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.30	2.39	676	74
Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	28	SU	4.01	25.1%	10.5%	3.1%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	283	74
Rubby De La Rosa R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	28	SU	4.04	27.4%	10.5%	3.5%	.280	4.25	27.7%	19.7%	22	+0.21	3.95	281	74
Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	28	SW	3.53	23.2%	9.0%	2.3%	.309	4.28	24.0%	17.4%	119	+0.75	2.83	363	73
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	73
Grant Hartwig R 2025 · 4.32 FIP	27	SU	4.32	25.7%	8.4%	4.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.52	179	73
Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.30 FIP	27	SU	4.30	20.4%	12.1%	2.5%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	113	73
Steve Johnson R 2026 · 3.88 FIP	28	SU	3.88	25.1%	10.9%	2.8%	.242	4.52	20.3%	11.4%	59	+0.64	2.21	152	72
Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	72
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.51 FIP	28	SU	4.51	23.3%	13.6%	3.0%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	315	72

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2023

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2028

First FA Year 2027

DEF 10%

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Arb-1	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.8M	+$0.1M
2027	Arb-2	$2M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$0.1M