Shane Bieber — OGILVIE

Shane Bieber P Toronto Blue Jays

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs MLB peak 1.1 · 2026 ILInjured 15-Day (D15)

2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.32

FIP4.40

K%19.0%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5555

CTRL6565

CMD6565

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.368

FB+2.5 (36%)

SL+2.3 (20%)

CU (19%)

CT (13%)

CH-4.0 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	28	173	698	162	8	8	100%	6.2	18.0%	1.3%	16.7%	1.5%	2.86	2.56	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	28	173	698	162	8	8	100%	6.2	23.2%	1.1%	22.1%	1.1%	2.86	1.97	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	33	32	194	783	195	30	17	97%	5.9	23.5%	3.9%	19.6%	2.2%	3.29	2.83	+5.1
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	33	32	194	783	195	30	17	97%	5.9	24.9%	3.8%	21.1%	2.2%	3.29	2.69	+5.5
2019	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	34	33	214	859	259	39	31	97%	6.3	30.2%	4.5%	25.6%	3.6%	3.28	3.11	+4.8
2019	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	34	33	214	859	259	39	31	97%	6.3	30.2%	4.5%	25.6%	3.6%	3.28	3.11	+4.8
2020	25	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	12	12	77	297	122	21	7	100%	6.4	41.1%	7.1%	34.0%	2.4%	1.63	1.82	+3.2
2020	25	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	12	12	77	297	122	21	7	100%	6.4	41.1%	7.1%	34.0%	2.4%	1.63	1.94	+3.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	18	103	431	141	35	13	100%	5.7	33.1%	8.1%	24.9%	2.7%	3.33	2.83	+2.7
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	18	103	431	141	35	13	100%	5.7	32.7%	8.1%	24.6%	3.0%	3.33	3.02	+2.4
2022	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	200	791	198	36	18	100%	6.5	25.0%	4.6%	20.5%	2.3%	2.88	2.81	+5.3
2022	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	200	791	198	36	18	100%	6.5	25.0%	4.6%	20.5%	2.3%	2.88	2.83	+5.3
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	135	562	118	38	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	6.4%	13.7%	2.6%	3.66	3.66	+2.0
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	23	135	562	118	38	14	100%	5.9	20.1%	6.4%	13.7%	2.6%	3.66	3.66	+2.0
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	23	135	562	118	38	14	100%	5.9	21.0%	6.8%	14.2%	2.5%	3.66	3.54	+2.2
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	2	2	12	45	20	1	0	100%	6.0	44.4%	2.2%	42.2%	0.0%	0.00	-0.37	+0.9
2024	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	2	2	12	45	20	1	0	100%	6.0	44.4%	2.2%	42.2%	0.0%	0.00	-0.37	+0.9
2024	29	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	2	2	12	45	20	1	0	100%	6.0	44.4%	2.2%	42.2%	0.0%	0.00	0.02	+0.8
2025	30	MIX MLE	5 levels	14	14	69	266	74	10	11	100%	5.0	22.4%	3.9%	18.5%	4.7%	2.86	4.30	+0.5
2025	30	MIX MLE	5 levels	14	14	69	266	74	10	11	100%	5.0	22.4%	3.9%	18.5%	4.7%	2.86	4.30	+0.5
2025	30	MIX RAW	5 levels	14	14	69	266	74	10	11	100%	5.0	27.8%	3.8%	24.1%	4.1%	2.86	3.46	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			154	152	939	3816	1039	218	112	99%	6.1	27.2%	5.7%	21.5%	2.9%	3.31	3.13	+20.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	16	16	73	320	58	29	14	100%	4.5	17.2%	9.5%	7.7%	4.4%	4.95	5.30	-0.3
YTD	31	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	16	16	73	320	58	29	14	100%	4.5	17.2%	9.5%	7.7%	4.4%	4.95	5.30	-0.3
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	ROK RAW	TOR	1	1	2	8	3	0	0	100%	2.0	37.5%	0.0%	37.5%	0.0%	0.00	-0.07	—
2026	31	A RAW	TOR	1	1	2	13	2	0	1	100%	2.3	15.4%	0.0%	15.4%	7.7%	19.29	6.02	—
2026	31	AAA RAW	TOR	3	3	13	57	9	5	3	100%	4.2	15.8%	8.8%	7.0%	5.3%	5.68	5.77	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	TOR	11	11	56	242	44	24	10	100%	5.1	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	4.1%	4.37	5.09	-0.1
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	TOR	11	11	56	242	44	24	10	100%	5.1	18.2%	9.9%	8.3%	4.1%	4.37	5.09	-0.1
ROS	31	MLB MLE	TOR	1	1	8	34	7	2	1	100%	8.2	19.0%	6.9%	12.1%	3.7%	4.32	4.40	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	TOR	1	1	8	34	6	2	1	100%	8.0	19.0%	6.9%	12.1%	3.7%	4.32	4.40	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	TOR	—	—	81	354	65	31	15	—	—	18.2%	8.8%	9.4%	4.3%	4.89	5.20	-0.4
FULL	31	MLB A+C	TOR	—	—	64	269	65	31	15	—	—	24.0%	11.6%	12.3%	5.7%	6.19	5.66	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	96	405	77	30	16	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.4%	11.6%	4.0%	4.90	5.03	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	88	372	67	29	16	100%	5.9	18.1%	7.9%	10.2%	4.3%	5.15	5.31	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	TOR	16	16	96	405	77	30	16	100%	6.0	19.0%	7.4%	11.6%	4.0%	4.90	5.03	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	TOR	15	15	88	372	67	29	16	100%	5.9	18.1%	7.9%	10.2%	4.3%	5.15	5.31	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		186	184	1131	4628	1190	280	146	99%	6.1	25.7%	6.0%	19.7%	3.1%	3.59	3.42	+20.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	818	210	50	26	99%	6.1	25.7%	6.0%	19.7%	3.1%	3.59	3.42	+3.6
Career	—	MLE		211	209	1251	5052	1279	248	137	99%	5.9	25.3%	4.9%	20.4%	2.7%	3.14	3.08	+19.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		34	33	200	807	204	40	22	99%	5.9	25.3%	4.9%	20.4%	2.7%	3.14	3.08	+3.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Bieber (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	21.1%	5.1%	3.6%	—	5.16	18.6%	10.9%	184	+0.84	—	—	—
Hector Ambriz R 2016 · 3.63 FIP	32	SP	3.63	16.0%	6.4%	2.0%	.273	6.40	10.4%	2.9%	91	+2.77	3.63	155	69
Jair Jurrjens R 2017 · 4.27 FIP	31	SP	4.27	16.3%	7.9%	2.8%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	125	67
Tyler Herron R 2017 · 4.02 FIP	30	SP	4.02	16.4%	8.7%	2.2%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	117	66
Kris Medlen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	31	SP	4.59	18.0%	5.9%	4.1%	.311	5.20	16.2%	6.2%	34	+0.61	4.59	261	66
Tim Adleman R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	31	SP	4.30	22.8%	7.8%	3.9%	.266	4.71	18.5%	11.1%	90	+0.41	3.63	605	66
Brandon Morrow R 2015 · 3.54 FIP	31	SP	3.54	18.3%	5.6%	2.3%	.280	3.49	21.2%	14.8%	153	-0.05	2.67	186	65
Zack Segovia R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	32	SP	4.78	15.0%	8.3%	3.4%	.314	3.33	20.2%	14.3%	39	-1.45	3.33	144	65
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	65
Chris Bassitt R 2020 · 3.53 FIP	31	SP	3.53	21.1%	6.5%	2.5%	.273	3.54	23.2%	16.7%	539	+0.01	3.02	1,554	64
Matt Cain R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	31	SP-	4.95	18.1%	7.8%	4.4%	.313	4.82	13.2%	5.6%	124	-0.13	4.82	294	64
Kyle Kendrick R 2016 · 4.41 FIP	31	SP	4.41	15.0%	5.1%	3.5%	.299	5.50	13.8%	9.9%	102	+1.09	4.41	337	64
Guillermo Moscoso R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	14.5%	6.9%	1.8%	.270	4.64	14.9%	7.5%	176	+0.87	3.77	264	64
André Rienzo R 2019 · 5.33 FIP	31	SP	5.33	17.9%	11.8%	4.1%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	200	63
Yu Darvish R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	31	SP	4.50	27.2%	11.7%	4.0%	.282	3.48	30.5%	24.0%	421	-1.02	1.97	1,253	62
Ricky Nolasco R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	32	SP	3.22	20.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.382	4.41	17.9%	11.7%	379	+1.19	3.22	425	62
Barry Enright R 2017 · 4.80 FIP	31	SP	4.80	14.7%	4.8%	4.3%	.318	4.97	13.6%	6.0%	24	+0.17	3.26	315	62
Tim Lincecum R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SP	4.20	18.0%	10.8%	2.3%	.296	5.02	17.4%	6.3%	89	+0.82	4.20	166	62
Bryan Evans R 2018 · 4.87 FIP	31	SP	4.87	18.7%	4.7%	5.0%	.294	3.89	18.7%	8.3%	25	-0.98	3.89	231	61
Mitch Talbot R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	34	SP	3.82	13.7%	5.6%	2.1%	.281	5.01	13.2%	8.9%	59	+1.19	3.82	162	61
Scott Feldman R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	32	SP	4.31	13.5%	5.8%	3.0%	.291	4.31	18.4%	12.4%	188	+0.00	3.92	297	61

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	93	19.4%	6.8%	1.54	4.75
Yonny Chirinos ('24)	1.7	84	18.9%	6.6%	1.38	4.37
Zach Plesac ('23)	2.3	93	18.4%	6.3%	1.39	4.20
Daniel Mengden ('19)	1.5	73	17.3%	7.7%	1.24	4.68
Alec Mills ('21)	1.1	72	19.0%	6.9%	1.41	4.51
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Adrian Sampson ('22)	1.4	72	17.6%	6.1%	1.66	4.38