Shane Bieber
P
Toronto Blue Jays
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 200 lbs
MLB
peak 1.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION35 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.40
FIP4.50
K%19.5%
BB%6.1%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 99 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1892.2
Whiff%
p4424.4%
K%
p1015.1%
xwOBA vs
p100.477
FB+2.5 (36%)
SL+2.3 (20%)
CU (19%)
CT (13%)
CH-4.0 (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 173 | 698 | 162 | 8 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.0% | 1.3% | 16.7% | 1.6% | 2.86 | 2.62 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 28 | 28 | 173 | 698 | 162 | 8 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.2% | 1.1% | 22.1% | 1.1% | 2.86 | 1.97 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 32 | 194 | 783 | 195 | 30 | 17 | 97% | 5.9 | 23.5% | 3.9% | 19.6% | 2.2% | 3.29 | 2.83 | +5.8 |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 33 | 32 | 194 | 783 | 195 | 30 | 17 | 97% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 3.8% | 21.1% | 2.2% | 3.29 | 2.69 | +6.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 34 | 33 | 214 | 859 | 259 | 39 | 31 | 97% | 6.3 | 30.2% | 4.5% | 25.6% | 3.6% | 3.28 | 3.12 | +5.7 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 34 | 33 | 214 | 859 | 259 | 39 | 31 | 97% | 6.3 | 30.2% | 4.5% | 25.6% | 3.6% | 3.28 | 3.11 | +5.7 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 12 | 12 | 77 | 297 | 122 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 41.1% | 7.1% | 34.0% | 2.4% | 1.63 | 1.83 | +2.8 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 12 | 12 | 77 | 297 | 122 | 21 | 7 | 100% | 6.4 | 41.1% | 7.1% | 34.0% | 2.4% | 1.63 | 1.94 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 103 | 431 | 141 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 33.1% | 8.1% | 24.9% | 2.7% | 3.33 | 2.84 | +3.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 18 | 103 | 431 | 141 | 35 | 13 | 100% | 5.7 | 32.7% | 8.1% | 24.6% | 3.0% | 3.33 | 3.02 | +2.9 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 200 | 791 | 198 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.0% | 4.6% | 20.5% | 2.3% | 2.88 | 2.82 | +6.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 31 | 31 | 200 | 791 | 198 | 36 | 18 | 100% | 6.5 | 25.0% | 4.6% | 20.5% | 2.3% | 2.88 | 2.83 | +6.0 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 135 | 562 | 118 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.1% | 6.4% | 13.7% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 3.66 | +2.8 |
| 2023 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 23 | 135 | 562 | 118 | 38 | 14 | 100% | 5.9 | 21.0% | 6.8% | 14.2% | 2.5% | 3.66 | 3.54 | +2.9 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 6.0 | 44.4% | 2.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.37 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 2 | 12 | 45 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 6.0 | 44.4% | 2.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.02 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 5 levels | 14 | 14 | 69 | 266 | 74 | 10 | 11 | 100% | 5.0 | 22.8% | 4.1% | 18.7% | 5.0% | 2.86 | 4.43 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 5 levels | 14 | 14 | 69 | 266 | 74 | 10 | 11 | 100% | 5.0 | 27.8% | 3.8% | 24.1% | 4.1% | 2.86 | 3.46 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 9 | 9 | 35 | 164 | 27 | 15 | 11 | 100% | 3.9 | 14.6% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 7.2% | 7.27 | 7.17 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 4.1% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 53 | 17 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.5% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 4.1% | 4.40 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 99 | 438 | 80 | 32 | 22 | — | — | 18.3% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 5.40 | 5.43 | -0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 82 | 348 | 80 | 32 | 22 | — | — | 23.0% | 9.1% | 14.0% | 6.4% | 6.52 | 5.83 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 77 | 28 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.1% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 5.11 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 68 | 27 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 5.36 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 80 | 339 | 59 | 26 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 5.64 | 5.83 | -0.8 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 96 | 405 | 77 | 28 | 19 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.1% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 4.6% | 5.11 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 88 | 372 | 68 | 27 | 18 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.2% | 7.2% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 5.36 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 80 | 338 | 59 | 26 | 17 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 5.64 | 5.83 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 207 | 205 | 1230 | 5050 | 1265 | 301 | 175 | 99% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 19.1% | 3.5% | 3.82 | 3.64 | +25.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 821 | 206 | 49 | 28 | 99% | 5.9 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 19.1% | 3.5% | 3.82 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 204 | 202 | 1213 | 4896 | 1249 | 236 | 137 | 99% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 4.8% | 20.7% | 2.8% | 3.15 | 3.09 | +32.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 33 | 200 | 807 | 206 | 39 | 23 | 99% | 5.9 | 25.5% | 4.8% | 20.7% | 2.8% | 3.15 | 3.09 | +5.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Bieber (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 21.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | — | 5.52 | 18.3% | 11.0% | 264 | +1.16 | — | — | — |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.29 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 2.8% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.29 | 125 | 65 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 31 | SP | 3.67 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% | .280 | 3.52 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.15 | 2.68 | 186 | 65 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 65 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2027 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 65 |
| Zack Segovia R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.00 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .314 | 3.41 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.59 | 3.41 | 144 | 64 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 30 | SP | 4.17 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 117 | 64 |
| Kris Medlen R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.66 | 18.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | .311 | 5.11 | 16.2% | 6.2% | 34 | +0.45 | 4.66 | 261 | 63 |
| Bryan Evans R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.14 | 18.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | .294 | 3.72 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 25 | -1.42 | 3.72 | 231 | 62 |
| Barry Enright R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.51 | 14.7% | 4.8% | 3.7% | .318 | 5.07 | 13.6% | 6.0% | 24 | +0.56 | 3.11 | 315 | 62 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.79 | 14.5% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .270 | 4.53 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 176 | +0.74 | 3.79 | 264 | 61 |
| André Rienzo R 2026 · 5.30 FIP | 31 | SP | 5.30 | 17.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 200 | 61 |
| Matt Cain R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.96 | 18.1% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .313 | 4.83 | 13.2% | 5.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 4.83 | 294 | 61 |
| Tim Adleman R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.57 | 22.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | .266 | 4.61 | 18.5% | 11.1% | 90 | +0.04 | 3.61 | 605 | 61 |
| Jose Samayoa R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.65 | 19.4% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 262 | 61 |
| Félix Hernández R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.63 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | .278 | 5.15 | 18.0% | 9.7% | 227 | +0.52 | 3.65 | 682 | 60 |
| Scott Feldman R 2027 · 4.18 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.18 | 13.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% | .291 | 4.35 | 18.4% | 12.4% | 188 | +0.17 | 3.92 | 297 | 60 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2027 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SP | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 59 |
| Kameron Loe R 2029 · 3.90 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.90 | 11.9% | 5.3% | 2.1% | .356 | 3.47 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 133 | -0.43 | 3.47 | 201 | 59 |
| Ervin Santana R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.02 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .273 | 4.18 | 19.2% | 12.4% | 417 | +0.16 | 3.66 | 720 | 59 |
| Kyle Kendrick R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.34 | 15.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | .299 | 5.23 | 13.8% | 9.9% | 102 | +0.89 | 4.34 | 337 | 59 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 92 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 1.75 | 5.05 |
| Tommy Milone ('20) | 6 | 71 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 1.85 | 5.23 |
| Jeremy Hellickson ('19) | 5 | 126 | 17.5% | 6.6% | 1.44 | 4.49 |
| Yonny Chirinos ('24) | 4 | 84 | 18.9% | 6.6% | 1.38 | 4.37 |
| Adrian Sampson ('22) | 4 | 72 | 17.6% | 6.1% | 1.66 | 4.38 |
| Matt Shoemaker ('21) | 7 | 75 | 20.5% | 6.7% | 1.48 | 4.59 |
| Zach Plesac ('23) | 5 | 93 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 1.39 | 4.20 |