Shane Bieber — OGILVIE

Shane Bieber P Toronto Blue Jays

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Injured 60-Day (D60)

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs MLB Svc 7.0 · Ctrl thru 2026 peak 0.7 · 2027

ERA4.05

FIP4.26

xFIP3.35

SIERA3.52

K%22.4%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%16.3%

IP112

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.7peak

2027

K†5050

FB Velo

p2392.6

Whiff%

p6727.9%

p5623.3%

xwOBA vs

p370.327

FB+2.5 (36%)

SL+2.3 (20%)

CU (19%)

CT (13%)

CH-4.0 (13%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2017	22	AA	Akron RubberDucks	28	28	173	698	162	8	8	18.0%	1.3%	1.5%	2.86	2.59	+5.3
2018	23	MLB	Cleveland Indians	33	32	194	783	195	30	17	23.5%	3.9%	2.1%	3.29	2.78	+5.6
2019	24	MLB	Cleveland Indians	34	33	214	859	259	39	31	30.2%	4.5%	3.7%	3.28	3.14	+5.2
2020	25	MLB	Cleveland Indians	12	12	77	297	122	21	7	41.1%	7.1%	2.4%	1.63	1.84	+2.9
2021	26	MLB	Cleveland Indians	18	18	103	431	141	35	13	33.1%	8.1%	2.6%	3.33	2.76	+3.0
2022	27	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	31	31	200	791	198	36	18	25.0%	4.6%	2.6%	2.88	2.98	+5.3
2023	28	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	23	23	135	562	118	38	14	20.1%	6.4%	2.6%	3.66	3.65	+2.5
2024	29	MLB	Cleveland Guardians	2	2	12	45	20	1	0	—	—	—	0.00	—	—
2025	30	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	14	14	69	266	74	10	11	22.8%	4.1%	4.4%	2.86	4.08	+0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	31	MLB	TOR	31	—	31	131	27	8	5	20.7%	6.1%	3.5%	4.12	4.41	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	32	MLB	TOR	17	17	93	391	79	24	14	20.1%	6.2%	3.5%	4.36	4.52	+0.8
2028	33	MLB	TOR	15	15	82	347	68	22	13	19.4%	6.4%	3.6%	4.53	4.65	+0.5
2029	34	MLB	TOR	13	13	73	307	64	18	11	20.7%	5.8%	3.7%	4.52	4.52	+0.4
2030	35	MLB	TOR	12	12	64	269	54	16	10	20.0%	6.0%	3.8%	4.61	4.67	+0.2
2031	36	MLB	TOR	55	—	55	234	45	15	9	19.2%	6.3%	4.0%	4.74	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			195	193	1179	4732	1225	218	124	25.9%	4.6%	2.6%	3.03	2.94	+31.6
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	803	208	37	21	25.9%	4.6%	2.6%	3.03	2.94	+5.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shane Bieber (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	20.7%	6.1%	3.5%	—	4.56	20.1%	13.9%	248	+0.15	—	—	—
Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 3.83 FIP	30	SU	3.83	18.7%	5.5%	2.9%	.333	3.54	27.2%	18.8%	45	-0.29	3.54	348	78
Craig Stammen R 2027 · 4.03 FIP	32	SU	4.03	17.0%	3.7%	3.5%	.333	3.35	23.9%	18.6%	241	-0.68	1.83	407	74
Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP	31	SU	3.63	21.9%	6.4%	2.9%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.62	3.10	120	71
Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	31	SW	3.48	23.5%	6.6%	2.8%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.57	2.00	380	71
Fernando Salas R 2026 · 4.17 FIP	31	SW	4.17	21.8%	6.1%	3.9%	.256	3.82	20.1%	14.5%	151	-0.35	2.65	288	70
Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	21.7%	6.3%	3.9%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	137	70
Carlos Villanueva R 2026 · 3.67 FIP	31	SW	3.67	22.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.259	4.50	19.0%	15.9%	74	+0.83	3.67	135	69
Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	31	SW	4.38	16.4%	5.1%	3.7%	.303	3.55	19.7%	14.5%	93	-0.83	2.65	283	69
Alex Wilson R 2026 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	17.6%	5.3%	3.5%	.232	5.07	19.4%	13.4%	62	+0.89	3.32	326	69
Pat Neshek R 2029 · 3.63 FIP	34	SW	3.63	22.9%	4.9%	3.3%	.268	2.45	24.6%	21.9%	134	-1.18	1.56	206	69
Yusmeiro Petit R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	31	SW	4.53	18.5%	4.5%	4.4%	.286	3.38	24.1%	20.4%	267	-1.15	2.46	517	69
Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP	33	SU	4.26	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.44	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.82	1.94	112	68
Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	31	SU	4.83	23.8%	9.4%	4.6%	.283	4.53	22.0%	13.8%	96	-0.30	2.93	176	68
Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	32	SW	3.33	23.7%	7.2%	2.4%	.342	4.98	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.65	3.33	122	68
Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.69 FIP	31	SW	3.69	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.20	3.46	295	68
Phil Hughes R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	31	SW	4.85	15.6%	4.5%	4.5%	.328	5.99	21.1%	15.2%	33	+1.14	4.61	301	68
Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	67
Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	31	SW	4.53	16.0%	7.6%	3.3%	.270	4.84	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.31	2.99	227	67
Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.61 FIP	33	SU	3.61	17.6%	8.8%	1.6%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.55	2.72	172	67
Jim Johnson R 2027 · 3.34 FIP	32	SW	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.67	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.33	2.57	251	67

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2018

Service 7.564 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Ext / FA-deal	$13M	+0.3	$1M	-$12M
Totals		$13M		$1M	-$12M